Writer
Mike Scrafton
Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.
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Australians need to know what lies beneath the new era of US-Australia strategic cooperation
Euphemistically, the Prime Minister recently announced that he and President Biden have “inaugurated a new era of US-Australia strategic cooperation”. Presumably he meant to say he’d found new ways to surrender Australia’s sovereignty. Continue reading »
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West must acknowledge Israel’s rights are not untrammelled
Everyone’s talking points have in bold type – ‘Israel has the right to defend itself’. This simplistic American militarist jargon is treated as if there was an untrammelled right. International law hasn’t emerged to facilitate war, but to constrain it. Continue reading »
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Climate policy: The widening reality gap
The global warming problem seems increasingly insoluble. The past record shows growing gaps between ambition and achievement, decreasing time in which to act, and governments, including Australia’s, stubbornly sticking to policies that have failed to stop emissions growth. Clues to the reasons behind this can be found in the Treasurer’s address to the Economic and Continue reading »
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America: a wounded hegemon
Amid the pomp in Washington did the Australian Prime Minister sense the enormity of the moment? As he paid homage to the hegemon could he feel the facade crumbling to reveal America’s slipping power? Continue reading »
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AUKUS: The greatest policy blunder
Recent speculation about the regulatory obstacles to the AUKUS agreement add to the Congressional concerns over the industrial base’s capacity to deliver the Virginia class submarines and meet to USN’s force level targets. Moreover, hanging over all of America’s foreign policy positions going forward is the faltering support for foreign adventures and the prospect of another Continue reading »
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Preparing for America’s Gleichschaltung
2025 America won’t be like 1933 Germany and they won’t be wearing brownshirts. But the program of the reactionary forces in America is as radical as that of the interwar fascists. And they have a plan for taking over. Continue reading »
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Illiberalism rising: Will a post-liberal America threaten the international order?
The intellectual space for revolutionary new thoughts accompanies social change and inevitably the revolution is a surprise and incomprehensible to elites when it comes. Social, economic, and political disruption is accelerating because of climate change, new advanced technologies, economic stress, and geopolitics. The space for revolutionary thought is growing. Continue reading »
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Republicans push for Mexican-American war: Don’t rule it out
One of the what-ifs that the Albanese government should be asking itself is; what would it mean if America invaded Mexico in 2025? If the leading Republican presidential candidates are to be taken at their word this is not a foolish question. Could anything have a greater impact on the foundations of Australia’s foreign and Continue reading »
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The intergenerational report – a climate fairy tale
The future is already upon us. The forty-year Intergenerational Report (IGR) is a divertissement. Continue reading »
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The AUKUS folly: Albanese and the US presidential election
There never was a chance of overturning the AUKUS folly at the Labor conference. As unpalatable as it might be, the only possibility of extracting Australia from America’s war planning now lies in the bizarre milieu of American politics. And it’s not forlorn. Continue reading »
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Public service reform must be future focussed
Public service reform is back as are the old tropes of merit based appointments, frank and fearless advice, and better preparation and training for APS leaders. These legacy markers of public service excellence need a thorough rethink if tomorrow’s challenges are to be met. Continue reading »
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Abandoned sovereignty: Australia’s intelligence function colonised by US
That the Albanese government could further compromise Australia’s sovereignty, international integrity and national interests seemed inconceivable. Yet, intelligence, a vital government function inextricably connected with independence and protecting national interest, is being penetrated and colonised by the Americans. Continue reading »
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AUKUS: A US device to lock Australia into the anti-China coalition
Around a week ago the Financial Review confirmed what many observers had taken for granted: the US offered nuclear propulsion technology to Australia under the AUKUS arrangements in order to lock it into the anti-China coalition. Continue reading »
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Oh the weaponising: another symptom of decline
‘Weaponise’ is the word de jour in America. Aside from the crude partisan employment of the term by Trump and other American politicians, it has subtly found its way into mainstream publications. Such loaded terms corrupt analysis by imposing implicit judgements that obviate the need for serious thought. Once condemned for weaponising, it cannot then Continue reading »
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The courage to end the Alliance
While not yet the majority view, a consensus is growing that the US alliance is no longer in Australia’s national interest and that the AUKUS partnership should be abandoned. The argument for distancing Australian foreign policy from that of America is strong in theory, but its practical implementation would be inordinately difficult and risky. That’s Continue reading »
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The zealot, the disrupter, and the ideologue: America’s presidential choices
Biden, Trump, or DeSantis; the zealot, the disrupter, or the ideologue are the choices confronting American voters. Individuals matter. Trump’s mercurial and transactional approach to foreign policy and his isolationist tendencies are well known. Back in the Whitehouse he would again be a disrupter, and perhaps worse. But an uncompromising Biden or empowered DeSantis present Continue reading »
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The militarisation of space – can Australia avoid following America?
America’s space policy reveals its hegemonic obsession and the future quandaries for Australian policy. Even America’s approach to exploration and colonisation of the Moon is only comprehensible in terms of terrestrial geopolitics. It now expects the world to bow to its power in outer space. Continue reading »
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Civil-military relations and the AUKUS debate: no public role for the military
Subordination of the military to the civil power in a democracy is non-negotiable, but is often taken for granted. More democracies falter because of a breakdown of civil-military relations than through external subversion or foreign aggression. Continue reading »
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Will Australia always follow the innocent nation into war?
A war in East Asia provoked by American intransigence would be no less disastrous for Australia than one caused by China’s ambitions. While China’s intentions and plans are inaccessible and should generate prudent caution, the well-researched drivers of America’s strategic policy should also produce grave reservations within the Albanese government. Continue reading »
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Postwar Ukraine will pose the hardest problems
Hopefully, behind the scenes, policymakers are well into postwar preparations for Ukraine. The conduct of the fighting naturally absorbs most attention in a war, but conflicts come to an end one way or another and often that’s when the hard issues emerge. Another Afghanistan or Iraq debacle must be avoided. Continue reading »
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All over bar the shouting: the inevitability of a submarine farce
The AUKUS submarine fetish has colonised the minds of the Labor ministers and ejected practical commonsense. Continue reading »
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AUKUS: time to talk about time and submarines
Scheduled for the 2040s, while the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines might never eventuate, the theatre surrounding the announcement provides a publicly-digestible narrative for the surrender of Northern Australia to the American military in the present day. Continue reading »
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An AUKUS ménage à trois
As the government offers new hints at the ‘optimal path’ for the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines, the questions about the viability of the project mount. The political pressure to out-muscle the Coalition on ‘national security’, if that’s what is driving the Labor government’s enthusiasm for this impending car-crash, should not be allowed to undermine the national Continue reading »
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American values on show in Jerusalem
Under the shelter of the ‘shared values’ mantra the leaders of America and its vassal states like Australia find justification for militarisation and hegemony. Secretary of State Blinken’s comments in Jerusalem, while sharing a podium with the Israeli Prime Minister, have exposed the utter meaningless and hypocrisy of this formula. Continue reading »
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Tanks for Ukraine won’t bring peace negotiations and an end to the war closer
Supply of main battle tanks will commit the NATO allies and partners to the war in a way that makes their involvement irreversible and could be effectively the first major step toward a war with Russia. Continue reading »
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All pathways to AUKUS submarines sub-optimal
It is difficult to reconcile the public documents and statements relating to the AUKUS nuclear-power submarine project. Unlike the usual procurement process the defence policy justification is opaque, the schedule and costs are unclear, and the implications for Australian industry vague. Continue reading »
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Acquiring B-21s to attack Chinese Pacific bases ignores strategic reality
B-21s for Australia? Not on the basis of defending against a Chinese base in Australia’s nearer region. Defence policy often proceeds under a number of heroic and muddled assumptions. Most likely, the Defence Strategic Review (DSR) will also. These must be tested. Continue reading »
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Post-liberal, post-democratic and authoritarian; is that America’s future?
Australians see American politics as a traditional electoral contest between Democrats and Republicans, or progressives and conservatives. However, a more illiberal, intolerant, and authoritarian political faction is being forged and its presence is being felt in mainstream American politics. Continue reading »
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America’s shiny submarine lure reels in Australia’s sovereignty
This year’s AUSMIN further advertised how the lure of submarines has facilitated the US military colonisation of Northern Australia. AUSMIN meetings are now performative art. The Australian side acts as though it has agency and the Americans pretend they aren’t just a resentful fading hegemon. Continue reading »
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DeSantis’ ideology is clearer, darker and more coherent than Trump’s
DeSantis would likely deliver the next staggering blow to liberal democracy in America. He has made his ideology unambiguously clear, and it is darker and more coherent than Trump’s. America’s allies would be well served to monitor closely the political tides as the 2024 presidential election approaches. Continue reading »
