Writer
Mike Scrafton
Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.
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After Ukraine a fractured and unravelling global order will confront the next Australian government
Putin’s forces might not progress far beyond the Dnieper River, yet the invasion will reshape the world in which the next Australian government operates. Evidence indicates that pouring funds into Ukraine’s reconstruction could feed an already corrupt elite Continue reading »
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Ethics and war: The Ukrainian tragedy
Among the headline grabbing events and the geopolitical speculations of the Ukrainian tragedy the ethical rights and wrongs of the conflict are largely ignored. For his criminal invasion, Putin rightly bears the greatest moral and legal opprobrium for the appalling death toll, atrocities, and widespread levelling of parts of eastern Ukraine. But once the war Continue reading »
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Habitual bipartisanship is toxic to good defence policy
The dominant object of Australia’s capability development program is simply to “continue to deepen Australia’s alliance with the United States”. Politicisation and secrecy has allowed successive governments to exclude voters from defence policy decisions of the utmost importance. Only a radical shift in the portfolio’s governance can restore confidence and integrity to defence policy, and Continue reading »
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The need for a department of climate change is now self-evident
The time has come for a powerful government Climate Department to allow strong action on legislating, regulating, and coordinating mitigation, adaptation, and transition. Continue reading »
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Don’t swallow the prunes – ADF’s inter-service rivalry on display
Admiral Prune’s unabashed bid for Navy funding has provided a window in to inter-service rivalry in the ADF. Also, it gives an unfortunate glimpse of the confused thinking infecting Defence. Continue reading »
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Ukraine: A victory narrative will be hard to maintain for Europe and America
Wars end. The peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine will determine whether President Putin or President Biden achieved his policy aims in the war. It seems unlikely that America will be able call it a win. Continue reading »
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Australia is ignoring important lessons from war from Ukraine
Defence policy and the reality of war should be at the centre of election following the Russian aggression in Ukraine . But Australian political leaders continue to ignore that reality. Continue reading »
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Australia’s strategic fundamentals at risk from Ukraine war
The big strategic question for Australia coming out of the Ukrainian war concerns the lessons China might draw and what impact that will have on US-China competition, and therefore Australia’s security. Continue reading »
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A national security yardstick on which the Coalition doesn’t outshine Labor
The use of national security for political advantage is a perilous business. Continue reading »
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Can someone in government explain why we are buying tanks?
When did US generals become arbiters of Australia’s strategic policy like it’s some banana republic. Continue reading »
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Australian Defence policy is a shambles and an election issue
For nearly a decade Coalition governments have overseen defence policy. Now Defence policy is in need of serious reform. Continue reading »
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Morrison pins his hopes on the complacency or ignorance of voters
We’re facing a climate calamity, yet the PM believes Australians are more focused on the next holiday than threats to their children’s future. Continue reading »
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No justice for Djokovic: the danger of different rules for politicians
Plenty of parliamentarians, mainly in the government, have made more incendiary statements against Covid vaccination than the tennis star ever did. Continue reading »
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Intolerance and political violence: a threat to US, and a worry for Australia
Biden could be succeeded by a democratically elected illiberal administration beholden to violent and bizarre supporters. Continue reading »
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Global warming: the nine essential questions for candidates at election 2022
Providing thoughtful answers should be the minimum requirement for candidates. Even more exhaustive answers should be demanded of cabinet hopefuls.. Continue reading »
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More than an acronym: AUKUS must be an election issue in 2022
When the nuclear-powered submarines are delivered they will be expensive white elephants. The project will distort defence policy for a generation. Continue reading »
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Why the West must tread carefully in assessing China
By downplaying China’s strength, commentator Paul Dibb ignores contemporary realities and underlines the subjectivity of strategic assessments. Continue reading »
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Shutting down ASPI: Hugh White, Peter Jennings and China
In responding to Hugh White’s analysis of the cost of a war over Taiwan, ASPI’s Peter Jennings makes the case for just how irrelevant his organisation is. Continue reading »
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No island is an island anymore: the flaw in Morrison’s 2050 plan
There’s the emissions reduction modelling, and then there’s the reality. Guess which side the Australian government prefers? Continue reading »
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The French disconnection: Australia’s dysfunctional diplomacy
The alarming deterioration of relations between French leader Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison was driven by arrogance and ignorance on the Australian side. Continue reading »
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Zero chance of net zero: the human security challenge after 2050
We are condemned to a hot planet. A 4-degree warming is inevitable no matter what measures are taken, so humans must now consider how to cope with this reality. Continue reading »
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Magical thinking: nuclear submarines and Australia’s Maginot Line of the imagination
The relationship between defence policy and the nuclear powered submarines has generated a lot of magical thinking. Continue reading »
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Distracted by the submarine bauble, Labor and the media miss the point
Australia is about to become home to American bases, and potentially a nuclear target, and this seems to have escaped the attention of the Opposition and the media. Continue reading »
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AUSMIN and AUKUS: It’s even worse than you think
Nothing exemplifies the loss of national sovereignty, and the abandonment of strategic autonomy, like handing the war decision over to the US. The submarine issue is simply a blind. AUKUS just a distraction. Continue reading »
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Mike Scrafton: Nuclear-powered submarines are just bad defence policy
Australian governments are now certain to be bedevilled by submarines for generations. Continue reading »
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Obsessing over confrontation with China leads to arid policy grounds
Shaping Australia’s China policy is complex enough without chasing impractical outcomes. Peter Hartcher and Geoffrey Barker are concerned about the threat from China but pursuing a confrontational strategy has shortcomings. Continue reading »
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Biden’s folly: a virtual summit with real consequences
President Joe Biden will convene a ”virtual Summit for Democracy” in December – a brave and foolish move, given the political paralysis and discord in the US. Continue reading »
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Afghanistan is a warning for all US allies
As an ally of the US Australia should be reflecting deeply on America’s third major postwar strategic fiasco. The US military has brought overwhelming military power and technological sophistication to major defeats in Vietnam, Iraq, and now Afghanistan. In each, the allies have been let down or suffered. Continue reading »
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ASPI outsourcing our defence policy to the gun runners!
Australia’s strategic policy discourse takes place in a fog of claims about risk and the warning time, while the key issues are the balance and trajectory of military forces in the Asia Pacific and the strategic interests of the regional states. Recent exhortations to urgent actions and radical defence reforms are alarmist and confused, and Continue reading »
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ASPI, AZERIs, the ADF, and the Defence hierarchy
ASPI’s Michael Shoebridge’s criticism of the professionalism and competency of the Defence hierarchy is serious. He paints the military and civilian hierarchy in Defence as hidebound, and infers they are placing service personnel and the nation’s security at risk. His analysis, however, displays a surprising degree of unfamiliarity with military affairs, and does not support Continue reading »
