Writer
Mike Scrafton
Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.
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Shifting national interests put Biden’s alliance strategy in doubt
The Biden Administration’s approach to China is anchored in the strength America draws from its alliances. The President and the Secretaries of State and Defense have made this clear. This is an anachronistic basis on which to construct a strategic policy given today’s strategic realities…. Continue reading »
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Radical people, not technology, are needed for a sustainable revolution
Michael Keating’s summary and review of Ross Garnaut’s latest book Reset: Restoring Australia after the Pandemic Recession is stimulating and important. While massive sustainable transformations in Australia’s economy and society are required, the emphasis on macroeconomic policies and the faith shown in technology is concerning…. Continue reading »
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The persistence of American authoritarianism should worry Australia
America has become less comprehensible and predictable to outside observers. The scale of the support for ex-President Trump’s election fraud claims, the assault on the Capitol, and the failure to convict Trump in the Senate, all seem to be portents of an emerging illiberal authoritarianism. The illiberal forces are barely restrained. Australian policymakers must already… Continue reading »
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Competition for technological primacy between the great powers will draw in ASEAN
Scott Morrison assumes the ASEAN states will line up with the US and Australia in attempting to blunt China’s growth and influence. Yet China can offer the ASEAN states solutions to their pressing problems of population growth, poverty and urbanisation through its ‘smart cities’ technologies…. Continue reading »
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Taiwan: a ‘wicked’ strategic problem for Australia
ASPI’s executive director Peter Jennings is banging the war drums over Taiwan again. He would have Australia automatically marching into a war in defence of the island. Why would Australia go to war over Taiwan?… Continue reading »
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Is Trump’s 1776 Commission report an extremist manifesto?
The 1776 Commission Report released on 18 January 2021 is a time bomb of extremist propaganda; a source document for the arguments and recruitment of white nationalists and white supremacists, and for the apologists of radical libertarianism…. Continue reading »
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What should Australia want from a Biden National Security Strategy? Avoiding war in Asia
Australia should hope for a major shift away from President Trump’s strategy but not an uncritical return to President Obama’s 2015 version. For a start a new NSS should reposition the US as a less crusading nation, one more accepting of difference… Continue reading »
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Preparing for a 3°C warmer future: the ideological shift and institutional response Australia will need.
Three things are obvious. The collective emission reduction efforts of nations will not avoid 3oC global warming by the century’s end. Therefore, national adaptation actions will need prepare for the worse than expected scale and impact from the effects of climate change. As a result, earlier ideological assumptions about governments will have to give way… Continue reading »
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The deceit of deterrence; a bankrupt strategic justification for defence expenditure
Although references to deterrence are regularly trotted out to justify defence acquisition decisions and alliance policy, the place of the idea of deterrence in Australia’s strategic policy is opaque and poorly understood. That the effectiveness of a deterrence strategy is highly dependent on contingent circumstances is regularly left unaddressed by advocates of ever greater defence… Continue reading »
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China-Australia relations: it’s not as simple as ABC
There are many commentators with strong and legitimate concerns about China. The relationship between Australia and China is a very important one and it warrants open and vigorous debate… Continue reading »
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ASPI resorts to bullying to deter strategic debate on China
Peter Jennings, Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), has launched an ad hominem attack belittling those who take a contrary approach to Australia-China relations rather than advocating for war preparations. But it is his poor grasp of his subject matter that is most disappointing…. Continue reading »
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ASPI’s guide to submarines leaves the biggest strategic questions unanswered
The interested reader would see much of this report as a public relations exercise, talking down to the public, and attempting to divert questions away from the burning one. Is this submarine intended primarily as a contribution by Australia to a possible conflict in the South China Sea? If it is, the Minister and the… Continue reading »
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Exaggerated threats and contrived military strategies: a response to Jon Stanford
For all the discussion of China’s aggression, it is the US and its allies that have been constantly at war for two decades…. Continue reading »
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No power in the Lowy Asia Power Index 2020
The Lowy Asia Power Index 2020 reveals a misunderstanding of the concept of power, and some underlying subjectivity and biases, undermines its usefulness. This is illustrated in the measures used concerning technology, military power, and the impact of the pandemic….This enterprise is at least partly funded by the Australian government security agencies. The benefit to taxpayers… Continue reading »
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IMF on global warming: impractical, naive and important
The response to global warming has to be at the same time political, science-based, and economically informed. Reading the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2020 World economic outlook: a long and difficult ascent, is instructive on this point…. Continue reading »
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The strategic aspect of human rights: a tool of hegemony
With America’s fading hegemony, new regional powers with regional hegemonic aspirations are displaying their ideas about human rights; ideas based on their particular historical, cultural, political, and religious experiences…. Continue reading »
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The US role in the world: a new normal
President Trump has pursued a different vision of the US’s role in the world. This has had an undeniable impact on the US’s relations with allies and competitors alike, and has reshaped the general perception of the US as a global actor…. Continue reading »
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The bathtub is nearly full: Australia’s extraordinary energy plan
The Coalition government’s energy plan ensures the emissions tap will continue to flow. While economic recovery following the pandemic is an important objective, to ignore the consequences of persisting with fossil fuels is incomprehensible…. Continue reading »
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Will Trump’s rejection of history divide America?
The 1776 Commission proposed by President Trump to counter the New York Times’ 1619 Project and other “narratives about America being pushed by the far left”, is not the equivalent of Australia’s conservative versus liberal history wars. It is about something far more dark…. Continue reading »
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Scientists and capitalists agree on climate. When will governments act?
Time again for Australia’s political leaders to ignore the regular cycle of reports that highlight the failure to deal with the coming climate disaster. The pandemic might provide a “look over there” opportunity to distract citizens, but the recent climate publications warrant close attention…. Continue reading »
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The UN at 75: a real declaration of intent, or multilateral virtue signalling?
An atmosphere of unreality is building in advance of the virtual meeting of world leaders to mark the 75th anniversary of the United Nations (UN). Nothing demonstrates this more than the proposed draft declaration. Rather than reaffirming the UN’s centrality, the draft declaration’s faux earnestness jars amid the current international reality. Additionally, it ignores the… Continue reading »
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The strategic mirror: the Pentagon’s China report reveals converging power and strategy
From Australia’s perspective, the Pentagon’s 2020 Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China Report is valuable for two reasons. It reinforces the absurdity of Australia planning to participate in high-intensity conflict against China under any circumstances. Additionally, it reveals the symmetry between US and China strategic policy…. Continue reading »
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Australia’s policies towards China have little support in the region.
The Southeast Asian states see themselves as being in a region where China and Japan have the most influence, and where the US’s influence is declining. The foundations of Australia’s strategic logic are very shaky…. Continue reading »
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A bigger canvas: Russia, China and Australia’s strategic policy
In an article in The Conversation, Professor Alexey Muraviev has pointed out that Australia has failed to factor into its strategic calculations the relationship between China and Russia. While Russia poses no credible direct threat to Australia, it could be a key player in a conflict between the US and China…. Continue reading »
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The current signs are ominous, and Australia is possibly stumbling blindly towards war.
Today’s risks and the history of war: recognising the unknowable. The point of no return is mostly only evident in hindsight, and nations occasionally find themselves unexpectedly teetering on the edge of conflict…. Continue reading »
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Cancel culture, Nick Cave and the Harper’s Letter: a moan from the Ivory Tower or call to the liberal battlements?
Nick Cave has revived the issues raised in the Letter on Justice and Open Debate published on 7 July 2020 and signed by 150 noted authors, academics, and public intellectuals. Issues that cut straight to a key fault line in liberalism…. Continue reading »
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Australian strategic policy: why we need a robust public debate
Australia’s writings on the history of strategic policy and military history are abundant and of a high quality. However, this knowledge is not reflected in the public debate on issues pertaining to Australia’s strategic policy choices…. Continue reading »
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AUSMIN 2020: confirmation of Australia’s abandonment of strategic autonomy?
Australians should not be quite as comforted by the government’s recent statements around Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) as some have indicated. Reassuring word s are the slippery province of diplomacy. Strategic policy is founded in force structure and force posture…. Continue reading »
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Confronting global warming: do democracies have the expertise?
Global warming, ecological collapse, biodiversity loss, and social injustice are complex, technical challenges. Understanding them and their relationship to each other requires high levels of expertise, and solutions will demand political leadership. Confidence that democracies can meet these challenges isn’t high…. Continue reading »
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The Rationale for the 2020 Force Structure Plan: A 2040 War with China?
There is a mismatch between the urgent need to respond to the supposed recent deterioration in Australia’s strategic circumstances and the 2020 Force Structure Plan (FSP)…. Continue reading »
