Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Recent articles by Adrian Beaumont

One Nation surges to new high as Coalition slumps to record low

One Nation surges to new high as Coalition slumps to record low

Multiple polls place One Nation ahead of the Coalition, raising the prospect of an historic realignment on the Australian right.

Election flows reveal nearly 90% of Greens preferenced Labor ahead of Coalition

Election flows reveal nearly 90% of Greens preferenced Labor ahead of Coalition

Minor party preference flows for the federal election have been released, with Labor winning Greens preferences by 88.2-11.8, while the Coalition won One Nation preferences by 74.5-24.5.

Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

A YouGov MRP poll has Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election – 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Labor’s regaining of polling momentum has continued into the first week of the formal election campaign.

Labor regains poll lead as election called for 3 May

Labor regains poll lead as election called for 3 May

After weeks of speculation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called the 2025 federal election for 3 May. This will be an election for all 150 House of Representatives seats and 40 of the 76 senators (a normal House and half-Senate election).