Trump and Netanyahu want regime change, but Iran’s regime was built for survival. A long war is now likely
The US–Israel strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader have pushed the Middle East into open war. But regime change in Tehran is far from assured and the conflict could trigger prolonged regional instability with global consequences.
Recent articles in Politics
2 March 2026
‘Insane this is legal’: Bettors make huge profits from suspiciously timed wagers on Iran war
Newly created accounts made around $1 million betting on the precise timing of US strikes on Iran, prompting calls for investigation into whether prediction markets are being used to profit from war.
2 March 2026
Louise Adler sets the record straight on Adelaide Writers' Week
The Adelaide Writers’ Week (AWW) debacle might have served as a “life lesson” to politicians and lobbyists about the risks involved in interfering with the independence of arts organisations. But as we have seen at Newcastle and the Sydney Writers Festival some are apparently slow learners.
2 March 2026
Trump’s dangerous war without consent
The United States is now at war with Iran without congressional approval, and the costs – strategic, human and constitutional – could be catastrophic.
2 March 2026
Jeffrey Sachs on the US and Israel war with Iran
The US is fighting to maintain hegemony, in a war that will have shocking global ramifications, says Columbia University Professor Jeffrey Sachs in conversation with Glenn Diesen.
2 March 2026
From Minneapolis to Africa – how states fracture when legitimacy fails
From Nigeria to Ethiopia, African conflicts show how federations unravel when force loses accountability. Minnesota’s standoff with Washington reveals the same warning signs.
2 March 2026
Large-scale forest thinning has limited benefits but major financial and ecological costs
Mechanical thinning is increasingly promoted as a fire control solution. But new research finds its effectiveness is mixed and the ecological, climate and financial costs often outweigh the benefits.
2 March 2026
Australia, refugees and the colonial hangover in the Asian century
From offshore detention to uneven moral outrage abroad, Australia’s political instincts still reflect an older colonial logic – one that sits uneasily in an Asian century shaped by multipolar power and shifting global authority.
2 March 2026
Regions, not postcodes: the structural reality of rural public education
Educational disadvantage in Australia is often framed as urban or socioeconomic. But across regional and remote communities, public schools operate with structurally thin staffing, services and support – and the consequences are cumulative.
1 March 2026
The Russia–Ukraine war: Australia’s unanswered questions. Part 1
As the Russia–Ukraine war enters its fifth year, hard questions are overdue. In Part 1 of a two-part series, Michael McKinley examines the strategic history behind the conflict and Australia’s uncritical alignment with a US-led approach that offered Ukraine little prospect of victory.
1 March 2026
Environment: A hotter Middle East, a warming Arctic and heatwaves that won’t retreat
Arab nations face a very hot future, more severe heatwaves will continue for 1,000 years after we reach net zero, and changing land use has contributed to global warming, now global warming is damaging the land.
1 March 2026
Lord of the Flies in the age of Trump
William Golding’s Lord of the Flies remains a bleak meditation on power, fear and civilisation. In today’s politics, its allegory feels newly unsettling.
1 March 2026
Punishment without crime: bypassing the law to criminalise dissent
A withdrawn charge is not a conviction. Yet across Australia, discontinued allegations are appearing on police checks, leaving individuals to defend themselves long after a case has collapsed.
