Despite official assurances, the US submarine program is falling well short of its own targets, raising serious doubts about whether Australia will ever receive the Virginia class submarines promised under AUKUS.

From the media announcements, all is well, we are ‘ full steam ahead’ on AUKUS (quite symbolic; a submarine at full speed is relatively noisy and less aware of its surroundings!)

The reality from the waterfront is that the US president of the day in 2031 will not have any surplus submarines and not be able to legally sign off on the sale of the first of three to five Virginia class submarines to Australia under today’s laws legislated by the US Congress.  This decision will leave Australia dependent on the delivery of the yet to be designed, British SSN AUKUS, that is also not progressing well. More of that in Part II.

How is the US side of the deal going?

The Pentagon’s review of the AUKUS Pillar 1 program has been delivered, and we are told it provides ‘changes to put AUKUS on the strongest footing’.   The report will not be published so we may never know what those changes entail, or what the implications for Australian sovereignty might be – so much for transparency with the Australian people!

It is expected the report will lay down deadlines for the UK and Australia to meet as pre conditions for any sale of Virginias – that could be an improvement if they force us to confront reality earlier, a chance missed by this compromised Pentagon review. Rumour has it that the report had to be amended several times, probably indicating differences between the Pentagon realists, managing real world inventories of submarines and the dynamics of political direction from the White House.

The US’ submarine building program remains well short of its target of two Virginia class submarines per year, (2.33 if it is to replace those to be sold to Australia).

The USS Iowa was commissioned in April 2025, The Massachusetts and Idaho have both completed sea trials and should be commissioned early in 2026. All will then have taken over five years, (the average is 67 months) from laying down to commissioning. This is a respectable time, unlikely to be improved upon for the final two Block IVs given the workload growth noted below.

Allowing for a similar construction time, the final two Block IV SSNs, Utah and Arkansas should commission in 2027 and 2028 respectively. At that point, in 2028, the US will have commissioned 28 Virginia class submarines, over a period of 24 years; an average of 1.2 per year. This is a shortfall of over 19 SSNs compared to the target of two per year – that much can be fairly reliably predicted.

Four of the planned 10 Block V submarines which follow, have been laid down. They are 31 per cent larger and more complex than the Block IV and will take longer to build.

The shipyards’ priority is construction of the 12 x 20,810 tons, Columbia class ballistic missile submarines, two of which are currently under construction. The pace of this program will increase from 2028, with a target of an additional submarine laid down each year. Both shipyards have earlier reported diverting effort from Virginia construction to try and recover slippage in this program.

How long the overstretched shipyards will take to construct the second priority, larger, Block V Virginia class submarines remains to be seen. A prediction based on allowing 30 per cent longer than it took to build the latest 3 Block IV, ie 87 months, would have Oklahoma, Arizona and Tang commissioning in 2030.

With three in one year, things are improving, but overall, that is 31 Virginia class in 26 years, 1.19 per year and 21 short of the target of two per year. Then, using the same basis for prediction, a two-year gap until Barb commissions in 2033.

Time will tell how close these predications are, but we can safely say that the US is nowhere near achieving the target of two Virginias commissioned per year. Further, the 2.33 target, needed to replace capability should submarines be sold to Australia, is completely unattainable prior to 2032 – sufficient submarines have not been laid down.

No additional Block IV Virginia class submarines have been laid down to replace any that might be sold to Australia, a telling indication of US intentions?

Whatever spin is applied to the Pentagon review, I suggest that it remains highly unlikely that the US will agree to sell some 10 per cent of its frontline Virginia class SSNs to Australia, against the backdrop of shortfalls in its program and the strategic situation.

That will leave Australia without submarines to cover the gap between the retirement of the Collins Class and the arrival of the British designed, SSN AUKUS.

I will examine how that program is going in my second part of this article.