As leaders promised change at home and abroad, 2025 was shaped less by decisive action than by stalled reforms, broken assurances and opportunities left untouched.

When people are asked to reflect on the events of the past year they almost inevitably focus on the things that happen – whether they be wars, floods, pandemics or, in Australia, sporting events.

Yet it is arguable that what often matters is not what happened – but what didn’t happen.

For instance, Donald Trump promised that Americans would get sick of winning from his policies. Instead, they are rating him the most unpopular President in history. He was going to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. No sign of that unless – as is distinctly probable – he forces Ukraine to submit to Putin demands.

As for Trump-Putin relations, one other thing that hasn’t happened is the revelation of what, if any, kompromat Putin has on him. The popular view is something to do with golden showers but that seems improbable and if there is none, Trump may just be in awe of Putin’s power.

Trump also promised to end the Israeli war and recently claimed he deserved the Nobel Peace Prize for his intervention on Israel. Yet it didn’t happen and now 42 per cent of Palestinian land is occupied by Israel while settlers are taking over more and more parts of the West Bank – murdering Palestinians in the process.

Trump claimed he had destroyed Iran’s nuclear capability. He did bomb it, but later analysis showed that the objective he had set didn’t happen. He also claimed to broker a lasting peace between Thailand and Cambodia. This week war broke out again.

Australia is also indicative of the not happening situation. After winning a massive majority Labor has been more defined by what it is not doing than what it is. There have been announcements and some modest reforms and ideas but where are the much-needed action on tax rorts; massive funding of private schools; effective environmental laws; and, a recognition that coal is not the answer. Significant reform and policy bravery, though, is just not happening.

Norway has a massive sovereign wealth fund which has provided it with huge financial reserves. In Australia it didn’t happen and we gave away the benefits which would come from effective resource rent taxes. In contrast we made Gina Rinehart and others super rich. Our Future Fund is of a size which might be welcomed in a very big super fund but hardly rates when compared with Norway. It might be designed to fund public service superannuation but any more ambitious possibilities are just not happening.

The world as a whole suffers the same not happening problem. It is agreed that we need to meet the 1.5 celsius drop in temperatures to moderate climate change but countries around the world – including Australia – are committed to policies which will make the target impossible to achieve and it’s just not happening.

After the failure of the Voice referendum the new and better Indigenous policies are just not happening.

Back in America, Trump and others raged about the dangerous communist, Zohran Mamdani standing for Mayor of New York. What happened? He sat down with him in the Oval Office. Trump might now be President, but he still fumes after a much older thing which didn’t happen – being accepted in New York.

Other things which haven’t happened – yet at least – are the AI boom busting although this might reduce demand for more and more power generation and just possibly still get us at least close to 1.5C.

There is probably also a very outside chance that the US Supreme Court will hold the Trump tariffs as unconstitutional. But then when has it happened that the supremes have ruled against Trump.

So when you look back on the year just passing reflect for a moment on what might have happened.