Noel Turnbull
Noel Turnbull has had a 50-year-plus career in public relations, politics, journalism and academia. He blogs at http://noelturnbull.com/blog/
Noel's articles (290 total)
Why so many Republicans are bailing out of Congress
A new report reveals the speed of autocratisation in the United States and how Trump is acting increasing without Congressional approval.
Could Texas really swing back to the Democrats?
Texas may still lean Republican, but shifting party identification, economic discontent and doubts about Donald Trump’s leadership are giving Democrats new reasons to believe the state could become competitive.
The Emperor has no clothes
The continuing saga of the Trump ballroom is yet another sign that everything the man touches turns to anything but gold, writes Noel Turnbull.
Support for impeaching Trump is now firmly mainstream
Polling suggests support for impeaching Donald Trump has returned to levels seen during Watergate and Trump’s first presidency, even as the US political system still makes removal from office highly unlikely.
Death tolls, settlements and the closing space for a two-state future
New research confirms that far more Palestinians have been killed in Gaza than first acknowledged, while settlement expansion and political rhetoric point to deeper structural realities.
Climate sceptics dominate the noise, not the numbers
Despite political denial and media distortion, majorities in Australia and the United States accept climate change is real, human-caused and demands action.
When public opinion breaks: ICE, Trump and a political tipping point
Political opinion usually shifts slowly, but history shows that certain events can force sudden, irreversible change. The killings linked to ICE enforcement may mark such a moment in the United States.
Trump insults NATO dead – and Australia stays silent
Donald Trump’s claim that NATO allies avoided frontline fighting in Afghanistan has sparked outrage abroad. In Australia, political leaders have said little.
What didn't happen in 2025
As leaders promised change at home and abroad, 2025 was shaped less by decisive action than by stalled reforms, broken assurances and opportunities left untouched.
Victoria government unfussed by Grand Prix debt
Victoria’s Grand Prix continues to post record losses, quietly adding to state debt while public services are cut and financial scrutiny is avoided.
Indigenous businesses are driving jobs and economic success
A new report shows Indigenous businesses are major employers, highly competitive, and delivering strong outcomes – often without reliance on government procurement.
Massacres, memory and the Memorial: facing our most deadly war
The evidence is overwhelming – Australia’s Frontier Wars were real, deadly, and long, and a landmark new book lays it out in full. So when will the Australian War Memorial fully face the truth?
Lame duck syndrome emerging
Reality finally starts to bite in the US and it hasn't come in a misspelt all-capital letters post Truth Social.
A dangerous trifecta
Amid the world’s many troubles is the growing possibility of a combination of the bursting of a bubble, a major government and corporate debt crisis and the possibility that a popular investment strategy — lifecycle investing or borrowing to invest — will all implode at the same time.
Yes – he's a dictator
The latest polling from the Public Religion Research Institute provides a stunning reflection on how Americans now regard Trump.
The key to social cohesion
It’s often said that . Whether or not that’s true is moot – but being under financial stress is definitely bad news.
The Apocalypse and the Antichrist
For US multi-billionaire Peter Thiel, 23 September must have been a rather disappointing day.
Is history repeating itself?
As the fallout from the Charlie Kirk assassination metabolised into a mass movement, a few voices raised a very unfortunate parallel – the assassination of Horst Wessel.
What will happen if/when the AI bubble bursts
Is the AI boom heading towards a bust – just like many other boom and bust cycles of the past?
If you really want some subs – try this
While there is no doubt that our acquisition of nuclear subs from the US will either be massively delayed and over budget or binned on some Trumpian whim, what’s worse is that we may never get our multi-billion dollar deposit back if that occurs.
RSL tries to tackle its troubles
The RSL has been a significant force in Australian politics, but it’s clear it is now suffering from a range of problems.
Trump is underwater
It is easy to be overwhelmed by the sheer volume of opinion polling coming out of the US.
You aren't laughing now, are you?
The British media has always been populated by larger than life figures – from Northcliffe to Maxwell, Beaverbrook to Harmsworth, Barclay to Lebedev and, of course Rupert Murdoch.
The war on US science
The US was already having problems with the performance of US academic institutions in scientific areas when Donald Trump arrived with the mission to nobble universities.
What Australians think of Trump and the US
While the Murdoch media — and most of the pontificators writing op-eds for the rest of our news outlets — are having conniptions about whether and when Albanese might get a meeting with Trump, it comes at a time when the Australian public have little trust in the US and even less in Donald Trump.
The one-word problem for Israel
The massive, almost universal, support nations have provided Israel since the Hamas attacks is eroding around the world and new research indicates that most people surveyed over 24 countries now have negative views of Israel and Netanyahu.
What the world thinks of Trump
It’s early days to find out what the world thinks of Trump and his war on Iran and then his ceasefire agreement – although, as would be expected, Israel and Australia have leapt to say they agree with it.
Trump most unpopular president in presidential polling history
Donald Trump is definitely exceptional – so exceptional that he is now the most unpopular president in the history of presidential polling.
There's something about Jacqui Lambie
Jacqui Lambie is no Cameron Diaz but the title of one of Diaz’s most loved films, There’s Something about Mary, might be a useful way of thinking about her. There is, after all, definitely something about Jacqui.
Australia doing nothing to attract American scientific talent
Australia has an historic opportunity to expand its scientific research and reap significant benefits.
Thames Water disaster drags on
The Macquarie Thames Water saga may be coming to an end albeit at great cost – but not, of course, to Macquarie which has reinvested the billions it took out into other things.
Sea change in attitudes to Israel and Gaza
Profound changes in both public and elite opinion are often slow to occur but — once they start — they can shift dramatically and quickly.
The vampire kangaroo legacy
The Financial Times has reported that Macquarie (also known in Britain as the Vampire Kangaroo) has told investors it was “very proud’ of its record as the owner of Thames Water – the company it sold seven years ago.
The US war on science
Sadly, largely due to the media’s lack of interest in science and the drop in the number of journalists able to cover such a round, one of the most important stories about science — the Trump destruction of science — is largely being neglected.
What the hell just happened?
What the hell just happened? Well, the first obvious thing is that Labor just won a massive record-breaking landslide election. The majority might get trimmed back a bit as further counting occurs but it suggests a third term is possible.
RSL stands up for Welcome to Country while Dutton weaves and dodges
On 25 April, a group of Neo-Nazi protesters booed Uncle Mark Brown’s Welcome to Country at the Melbourne ANZAC Day Shrine service.
Voters looking at the least bad option
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has a very big problem this coming Saturday, election day; he is the most distrusted political leader in Australia according to an April 2025 survey by Roy Morgan.
The great election silence
Australian elections are often marked less by what is promised or talked about, and more by absences. There’s much about tax cuts, but little or nothing about tax rorts, such as negative gearing. Policy area after policy area has such absences.
Dutton appears to be slowly losing ground
Peter Dutton was edging towards possibly towards winning the forthcoming election. But lately he has been moving further and further away from that. It’s possible he might still win, but it looks increasingly unlikely.
Echoes of 500 years ago
This year marks 500 years since the end of the Peasants War in Germany (1524–25).
What the polls are and aren't telling us
Political junkies and the media are obsessed with opinion polls on the relative standings of the political parties. Movements within standard statistical margins of error are treated with great respect.
Submitting to, or trying to placate, bullies never works
Europeans are doing it, the great bruiser Doug Ford is doing it, Mark Carney is gearing up to do it – even Keir Starmer is doing it. But it’s a dance our very own prime minister isn’t doing.
Discombobulating the media election campaign coverage
The priestly pundit caste in the media is well into their election coverage rituals while the political parties are busy adjusting their strategies to tailor their offerings to these ritual needs.
The Murdoch plague on world politics
Any company which had a history of illegality, incurred massive costs for those illegal actions, polluted public discourse and, made massive false claims about companies and institutions, the directors and managers would be facing summary sacking at an AGM. But in the case of News Limited all the evidence is that the company never learns from such lessons.
There will always be an enemy
The English often sing There’s Always Been an England. For America the song would probably be something along the lines of there will always be an enemy.
Dutton's stuff-ups: Tough guy who's not so tough
For a self-promoted tough guy — particularly if it involves refugee women and children — Peter Dutton’s career has been marked by many instances of being missing in action.
Snouts in the trough
Ah! Peter Dutton loves the past when sheilas knew their place, blokes were blokes and boozy lunches were a key characteristic of the business environment.
Musk – a perfume on the nose
Elon Musk may not have fallen out with Donald Trump just yet, but he is definitely on the nose with the American public.
A massive mandate?
Donald Trump and the MAGA gang point to the ‘massive mandate’ he obtained to justify any policy he may implement.