A ceasefire in Lebanon – Gaza next?
Nov 30, 2024
Third party intervention led by the US and France has achieved a ceasefire in Lebanon. The US now needs to push for a settlement in Gaza where the combatants withdraw, and an external force is charged with maintaining the peace.
A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect at 4 am local time on Wednesday morning.
There are 13 points in the ceasefire agreement, but essentially the agreement requires Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon, after which the Israeli troops will withdraw to their side of the border.
This new “peace-zone”, south of the Litani River and north of the border with Israel, will be patrolled by thousands of additional Lebanese army troops and UN peacekeepers. An international panel, headed by the United States, and including France and the UN, will monitor compliance with the terms of the ceasefire.
With more than 3800 people killed and more than 1 million people displaced in Lebanon, and more than 60,000 people displaced from northern Israel, this ceasefire agreement is most welcome news.
However, at present the ceasefire is only for 60 days and what then? In addition, some experts are already querying whether the ceasefire can last even for the agreed 60 days.
Many of Hezbollah’s fighters actually live south of the Litani river and after they return to their destroyed homes it will be difficult to ensure that they remain unarmed and do not re-engage with the enemy. Furthermore, as Roger Shanahan, writing in the Sydney Morning Herald, put it the peace is bound to be fragile as “strategic realities haven’t changed.”
On the other hand, even a fragile truce is better than continued fighting. The challenge now is to achieve a lasting peace in Gaza. That would change the strategic realities in Lebanon, as Hezbollah has always said that it would stop fighting if peace was restored in Gaza.
Certainly, President Biden understands that the main work is still to be done, but he has expressed the hope that this pause in more than 13 months of fighting will be a catalyst to also end the war in Gaza.
What is most encouraging is the recognition in this Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement that a lasting peace settlement requires the withdrawal of the two combatant forces and their replacement by a new neutral force charged with maintaining all the elements of the peace-agreement.
As I wrote previously, neither Israel nor Hamas will accept a continuing role for the other side in Gaza in future. Thus, “if Israel is to accept that it can safely withdraw, both sides must be confident that under the peace settlement, instead of Israel’s army ensuring that terrorism is not allowed to reappear, an international force will keep the peace in Gaza.”
The other critical problem making restoration of peace in Gaza difficult is that neither side – both Israel and Hamas – presently accept the two-state solution, which is the only basis for a lasting peace. Instead, each side essentially wants to own all the territory from the Jordan river to the sea, and to wipe the other side out.
This intransigence is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. But as the achievement of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement demonstrates, if sufficient pressure is applied by powerful third parties, like the US and the UN, the objections of the combatants can be overcome. In the end Israel’s ability to continue its occupation of Gaza depends critically on military assistance and support from the US.
In short, now is the time to strike a peace settlement in Gaza. In addition, to allowing an international force to police the cessation of hostilities, an enduring peace settlement will require that Hamas plays no further part in the government of Gaza.
In future Gaza could be governed as part of Palestine, by a reformed Palestinian authority. But establishing that reformed authority would take time, and initially the ministers to govern Gaza will need to be appointed by the international force. In due course, after the reformed Palestinian administration has established itself, there should be elections to provide for a more permanent government of Palestine.
A peace settlement in Gaza along these lines is realistic. It meets the requirements of both the Israelis and Palestinians. And if negotiations commence quickly that would also reinforce the ceasefire in Lebanon and ensure that it continues.
But time is short, and President Biden needs to push determinedly now. Waiting for Trump to take over could well prove catastrophic.
Michael Keating is a former Secretary of the Departments of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Finance and Employment, and Industrial Relations. He is presently a visiting fellow at the Australian National University.
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