‘A very dark picture’: IMF warns Trump’s Iran war could unleash global recession
The war on Iran is disrupting energy supplies, fuelling inflation and raising the risk of a global downturn, with the poorest countries set to suffer most.
Recent articles in Economy
15 April 2026
Stagflation risk puts tax reform back on the table
This budget will be especially challenging. Given the risks of stagflation, fiscal policy needs to be tightened. But in a cost-of-living crisis the main burden should fall on those who are relatively well off and that requires tax reform.
15 April 2026
By avoiding means testing, the government is giving handouts to the rich
Australia’s highly targeted tax and transfer system is being eroded by a shift toward universal benefits – redirecting support away from those who need it most.
14 April 2026
A costly rewrite of R&D – with no price tag
Proposed changes to Australia’s R&D tax system would expand eligibility beyond genuine research, concentrate benefits among a narrow group of firms, and proceed without clear costings.
13 April 2026
When the world changes, economic policy must too
A new geopolitical shock is exposing the limits of economic orthodoxy, echoing past crises where sticking to old rules only deepened the damage.
11 April 2026
Cost of living? We should be more concerned about something else
While cost-of-living pressures dominate headlines, deeper shifts are reshaping Australian politics – with Labor consolidating the centre and the Coalition struggling to respond.
11 April 2026
Australia is giving away billions in gas profits
Australia’s failure to properly tax gas exports is costing billions in public revenue, even as other countries capture windfall profits for national benefit.
9 April 2026
Unwinding the capital gains tax folly
Tax concessions on property and capital gains have driven housing inequality and distorted the market, and fixing them requires structural reform – not Budget tinkering.
8 April 2026
When will housing completions in Australia overtake population growth?
Australia’s housing pressures reflect years of mismatched policy – with falling supply colliding with surging migration and labour market shocks.
8 April 2026
Reform requires trust – and trust requires openness
Economic reform depends on public trust – and that trust is being undermined by declining transparency, weak accountability and limited public engagement.
2 April 2026
Productivity, inequality and the rise of populism
The rise in populism in numerous advanced economies has been driven by cost-of-living pressures. To protect our democracy, we will need faster productivity growth and all wages to rise with productivity.
1 April 2026
The three phases of Trump’s quagmire in Iran
Trump’s defenders argue that his contradictory actions are strategic. It’s more likely that panic has him flailing. His gut instinct led him to make a colossal mistake, and he has no idea what to do next.
30 March 2026
Tax reform isn’t enough – Australia needs an economic reset
Tax reform is necessary, but on its own it cannot fix an economy shaped by housing speculation, resource dependence and weak productivity.
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