Pearls and Irritations

Amidst the spat with Beijing over safety of its troops on Sierra Madre at the Second Thomas Shoal, the Philippines is becoming increasingly stretched. Pooling all available resources to deal with one of the worst oil spills in many years in Manila Bay could mean playing down conflict with Beijing.

The dispute over the Second Thomas Shoal is complex, resource demanding and fluid.

Last Sunday (28 July), Manila reported it was able to resupply the troops on the Shoal uninterrupted and without giving Beijing prior notification and onsite verification. However, China’s Foreign Minister meeting at Vientiane after the incident maintained that the provisional arrangement had allowed the Philippines to supply only “living necessities after on-site verification and monitoring of the process.”

Whilst at Vientiane, Foreign Minister Wang Li also warned the Philippines over the deployment of the US intermediate missile systems as threatening the peace and security in the region.

The tension over Second Thomas Shoal has been brewing for some time.

The fuss over the Shoal goes beyond Manila defending a rotting vessel that was deliberately sunk in 1998. The former Philippines Chief of Navy, Admiral Eduardo Santos, confessed he scuttled the vessel to scupper China’s expansionist territorial ambition. This happened three years after China seized Mischief Reef that has since been converted into an artificial island complete with a military garrison and an airfield.

The disclosure by the former Chief of Navy he scuttled an ex- naval boat has raised questions over state responsibility under international law. States are not allowed to cause “accidents” of its public vessels. If the “accident” happens in the high sea, the flag state is required under international law to remove it.

The Sierra Madre is outside the Philippine territorial waters.

The Second Thomas shoal is an underwater feature that cannot be occupied without a structure above it. The sunken Sierra Madre provides the structure or platform for Filipino soldiers to stay afloat and to have a roof over their heads, to assert the country’s sovereign rights at and beyond the Shoal.

The soldiers must be regularly supplied with fresh rations to stay alive. Moreover, Sierra Madre requires repair to be habitable, an issue that Beijing refuses to acknowledge because Beijing does not recognise Manila’s claim in the South China Sea. Moreover, Beijing claims the vessel has been illegally wrecked.

There were many incidents involving the Chinese coastguard and the Philippine Navy at the Second Thomas Shoal. Manila has accused China of using water cannons and laser lights against their vessels trying to supply troops on Sierra Madre, culminating in the incident on 18 June 2024, where a Chinese coastguard rammed a Filipino navy boat and injured a soldier.

A war was averted because Manila, after some thoughts and advice, did not ignite the fuse that could be used to trigger the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the US; choosing instead to downplay the ramming of a public vessel as a mishap and an accident.

A provisional arrangement was hatched after the 18 June incident to avoid further skirmishes. Under the arrangement, China has insisted that troop rotation and reprovisioning (RORE) by the Philippines must first receive the green light from Beijing.

Manila has rejected and defied this requirement despite the provisional measures on 22 July 2024 intended to de-escalate tensions at the Second Thomas Shoal. The Ministry of Foreign Affair has contested the accuracy of the Chinese claim a day after the deal was done. In challenging the accuracy of China’s assertions, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Philippines Foreign Affairs insisted Manila would not be cowed. Instead, it continues to assert its rights and jurisdictions in its maritime zones, rejecting claims that it is required to provide China prior notification to conduct RORE and its activities be subjected to onsite verification.

Unfortunately, the content of the provisional arrangement is not available in the public domain.

An excerpt of a Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s statement on the matter is reproduced below for record purposes.

“China recently had a series of consultation with the Philippines on managing the situation at Ren’ai Jiao and reached provisional arrangement with the Philippines on humanitarian resupply of living necessities. The two sides agreed to jointly manage differences on maritime issues and work for de-escalation in the South China Sea.”

The Chinese statement mentioned three points. They are:

“First, by keeping its warship grounded at Ren’ai Jiao for decades running, the Philippines has been violating China’s sovereignty and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), especially Article 5 which says the parties should refrain from action of inhabiting on the uninhabited islands and reefs. We continue to demand that the Philippines tow away the warship and restore Ren’ai Jiao’s state of hosting no personnel or facilities.”

Second, between now and when the warship is towed away, should the Philippines need to send living necessities to the personnel living on the warship, China is willing to allow it in a humanitarian spirit if the Philippines informs China in advance and after on-site verification is conducted. China will monitor the entire resupply process.”

Third, if the Philippines were to send large amount of construction materials to the warship and attempt to build fixed facilities or permanent outpost, China will absolutely not accept it and will resolutely stop it in accordance with the law and regulations to uphold China’s sovereignty and the sanctity of the DOC.”

[Ren’ai Jiao is China’s name for Second Thomas Shaol which Manila calls Ayungin Shoal.]

The spat over RORE goes beyond humanitarian considerations. It is about ownership of the feature and the competing strategic designs that both countries have in the SCS. The spat over the Second Thoms Shoal cannot be understood in isolation of other geopolitical dynamics taking shape in the SCS.

The dispute is also ingrained in their foreign policy motivations as both states find it difficult to concede grounds and to reconcile their political differences.

While the major issues between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea are mostly bilateral in nature and revolve around territorial disputes, maritime rights, and resource control, the dispute at the Second Thomas Shaol is also driven by geopolitics as well as domestic politics.

The disagreements over the content of the provisional arrangements on crisis de-escalation at the Second Thomas Shoal manifests deepening mistrust between Manila and Beijing.

China and the Philippines have in the past maintained good diplomatic rapport before Marcos Jnr became President in 2021.

The golden periods of Philippine and China diplomatic relations were during the presidency of Gloria-Macapagal and Rodrigo Duterte.

President Duterte’s decision to suspend the decision of an arbitral court in 2016, not to appease China, but to avoid a war that he could not win was met with criticisms both at home and abroad. In hindsight, it was Duterte’s foresight that bought some peace and brought an economic boom and temporary respite in the turbulent waters of the South China Sea.

The situation at the Second Thomas Shoal is unlikely to be resolved soon if both sides continue to bicker and disagree with each other over commitments made, for example, in the recent provisional arrangement.

The involvement of third parties in the dispute will be a recipe for disaster.

To manage their disagreements in the SCS, China and the Philippines require a multifaceted approach that emphasises diplomacy, adherence to international law, and trust-building measures including regular high-level dialogues to address concerns and seek mutually acceptable solutions.

These talks should be aimed at reducing tensions and avoiding confrontations.

By focusing on diplomacy as a way forward, China and the Philippines can work towards a peaceful and stable resolution to their dispute over Second Thomas Shoal. At the same time, both parties need to manage extreme nationalist sentiments and take steps to prevent third party involvement.

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