Pearls and Irritations

Public polls and what I have heard of private polls suggest we may be facing a very new political ball game after the next federal election.

At the last election, the Albanese Government secured a two-seat majority. The large swing to the ALP in WA was a surprise. And the ‘Chinese vote’ was critical in 5/6 seats.

That election also produced a supersized cross-bench of 18 members in the House of Representatives – Greens (4), Katter (1), Centre Alliance (1) and Independents (12). That cross bench may be much larger in 2025. The Independents will not forget how Albanese was hostile to their quite reasonable staffing requests after the 2022 election.

The next election is likely to continue the long-term trend of disillusionment and retreat from the major parties.  In 1951, the major parties won 98% of votes. It was down to 68% in 2022.

It is probable that more disappointed voters in 2025 will vote for the Greens and Independents. They will be very reluctant to vote for the Coalition and Peter Dutton.

These voters are likely to be concerned about the Albanese Government’s timidity and failure on many fronts:

• Cost of living
• Voice Referendum
• Climate change
• AUKUS and US bases
• Americanisation of our institutions
• Palestine and Gaza
• Failures in transparency – NACC,FOI and lobbying
• Housing / Education / Health

With Proportional Representation in the Senate, we will see an even greater number of Greens and Independents in that chamber. David Pocock has shown the possibilities of Independents with good public profiles and records. There has been speculation that there could be a First Nations ticket in the Senate in several states and territories.

So Anthony Albanese may face some very hard choices after the next election:

• What are the issues that could be on the agenda of the cross-bench to support a minority Labor Government?
• Albanese may be unacceptable because of his leadership failings. But he is personally liked.
• Richard Marles would be very vulnerable with his love affair with all things American.
• A Chalmers / Plibersek leadership ticket could be more acceptable to an enlarged cross-bench. It is being discussed.
• Changes in the House of Representatives electoral system similar to New Zealand or Tasmania. At the last federal election the Greens got 12% of the votes in the House of Representatives but only 3% of the seats.

Power sharing is not something new around the world. Many jurisdictions in Australia have also had some form of power sharing. In the ACT, power sharing by the ALP and the Greens has been successful.

Greens and Independents need to start thinking about their “bottom line”.

Hopefully, a minority Labor Government would serve us better than the majority Labor Government we have at the moment.

So much of the damage to the Albanese Government is self inflicted.

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