The quick count of Indonesia’s recent elections indicates the winner is previously disgraced Prabowo. Accusations abound of voting fraud, vote buying, court-rigging, and corruption within the electoral commission, and many friends are despairing of Indonesia’s retreating democracy. I share that concern, but I can see a potential different interpretation of the facts. My prayer, and an exerted effort by political parties and civil society, Indonesia can revive its democracy in regional elections next November.
Pearls and Irritations published Duncan Graham’s “Indifference Killing Democracy in Indonesia” on 11 March, 2024. He presented well-documented sins of Prabowo under President Soeharto. But after Soeharto was forced to resign, Prabowo exiled himself to Jordon. He returned twenty years ago, declaring to be a different person because it was a different era.
Prabowo
In 2008 Prabowo formed Gerindra, his own political party. And in 2009, Megawati accepted this ally of the hated Soeharto as her running mate for the 2009 Presidential elections. They lost.
In 2014 and 2019 he campaigned dirty against Jokowi. After losing a second time, Jokowi appointed him as Minister for Defence. Thus both Megawati and Jokowi had accepted a changed Prabowo.
After a year working for Jokowi, Prabowo confessed that Jokowi was a better leader. Then in 2023 Jokowi supported Prabowo for Presidency in 2024, and it seems Prabowo has won.
On Monday 4 March 2024, less than three weeks after the election, Prabowo declared that Indonesia’s democracy has “a lot of room for improvement”, which he described as “vibrant and resilient”, though he said that democracy is “really very, very tiring; democracy is very, very messy” and “we are still not satisfied with our democracy.” Face value, Prabowo was saying he is pro-democracy but not pro Indonesia’s current democracy.
Prabowo has been supported up to now by his younger brother, businessman Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who has just now been reported as being bankrupt. Will Prabowo now revert to his military style, or to Soeharto’s kleptocracy, to save his brother that helped him get to the top? Or will he act like a convert, and un-mess Indonesia’s democracy?
Jokowi
Had Jokowi been practicing democracy for so long, and now leave such a trail undoing Indonesia’s democracy? Maybe he never was pro-democracy, maybe adept as manager and marketeer where his achievements seemed democratic. But maybe he believes his actions are to democratise Indonesia’s form of democracy?
In his first term he refused to appoint politicians to his cabinet. He avoided parliament (DPR). But in 2016, DPR supported his bill for simultaneous elections of regional leaders after Presidential elections in 2024. Was he laying the foundation for profound change?
Then big news after Jokowi was re-elected in 2019 was his ministerial appointment of Prabowo, his acrimonious rival.
Jokowi has been duplicitous concerning the 2004 undemocratic National System of Development Planning Law (UU SPPN), that requires a long-term development plan every twenty years and five-year development plans drafted before elections, only edited by incoming leaders and valid without amendment for five years. Jokowi’s 2019 five-year plan was 2279 pages long. Jokowi did not make any effort to change this problematic planning system, but he paid little attention to it.
And in 2019, Jokowi produced a vision for Indonesia by 2045, to be the basis for long-term planning in 2025. But he has retained UU SPPN, and demands long-term plans to be prepared in 2024.
The only scenario I can see for maintaining the planning law that Jokowi disdains, is that it is a lever over parties for the regional elections in November for the 550 positions of Governor, Regent and Mayor, to be elected by popular vote. Maybe Jokowi is attempting to reform local democracy.
Parties, all undemocratic, are under pressure in three ways. With too many elections and too many candidates, national party committees and party patrons cannot hold the reigns. They must delegate to their provincial branches.
Campaigns will be based on carefully overseen long term plans for 2025-2045, based on Jokowi’s Indonesia Emas 2045. No more room for candidates to campaign beyond their authority, and candidates mut look to the long term.
And economic outlooks must include collaboration to embrace connectivity within markets. From 2025, Jokowi is demanding decentralise governance of the economy. Political parties within provinces need to prepare collaborative campaigns, not just campaigns between local elites.
In 2019 Jokowi surrounded Prabowo with people who could monitor his faithfulness. Yes, Jokowi seems to be creating a dynasty. Maybe also keeping a watch over Prabowo, like he did in 2019. Could that very same brother-in-law in the constitutional court who helped create the dynasty, also keep close watch over any attempt to undermine the constitution? Will Jokowi demand he appoints opponents Ganjar and Mahfud or even Ahok as ministers, as he appointed Prabowo back in 2019?
Could he be demanding Prabowo oversee better decentralisation, a focus on SDG 2030, a revision of the Planning Law, and political party law to demand parties to be democratic?
Whether Prabowo returns to his old self, or whether my hope and prayer is answered, political parties can start preparing to change local democracy by being more democratic themselves. And local civil societies can be demanding it.
Owen Podger
Owen Podger is an Australian living in Indonesia. Since March 1998 when Soeharto was elected for the final time, he has concentrated on assisting Indonesian reforms , mainly in two areas: (1) policies to improve performance of government in Indonesia's new democratic and decentralised system, and (2) sustainable urbanisation considering climate change and disasters.
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