Pearls and Irritations

On 22 August, Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, warned of the deadly effect a military attack on Russia’s nuclear power complex at Kursk would have on civilian communities in Russia, Ukraine and potentially across Europe. He had previously warned of the consequences of such attacks on Ukraine’s nuclear reactors at Zaporizhzhia.

The Kursk nuclear complex is approximately 30 kilometres from a fluid military situation between invading Ukrainian forces and Russian defenders. The complex has six Russian designed RBMK reactors, the same type as at Chernobyl. Two are shut down, two are in construction mode, and two are hot. None have protective domes. The easiest and most effective military action would be destruction of the complex’s power supply, which as with flooded generators at Fukushima, would halt cooling pumps, overheat the reactors, cause a melt-down of fuel rods, and the uncontrolled venting of radioactive materials into the atmosphere.

People have short memories, and tend to forget the dimensions of previous nuclear disasters and near disasters, particularly at Windscale, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima. Chernobyl was arguably the worst, followed closely by Fukushima. At Chernobyl, reactor number four exploded, not due to military action, but an experiment by Russian engineers to see how long turbines would spin and supply power to cooling pumps if the reactor’s main electric supply failed. In the reactor, the collision of incandescent nuclear fuel with cooling water created an explosion which blew apart the reactor vessel and spread radioactive dust including xenon gas, short-lived Iodine 131 (eight days) and Caesium 137 (30 years) across much of Ukraine and Belarus, as well as parts of Russia, and Scandinavia. The nearest town of Pripyat was evacuated and a no-go zone of 30 kilometre radius, later expanded to 4,300 square kilometres, was declared.

Subsequent reports by the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation found that immediate deaths caused by radiation from Chernobyl could be calculated, most certainly deaths from thyroid cancer, but not of long-term stochastic deaths. The precise number is unknown and there are wildly different estimates, including among the medical profession. Because of fears about radiation damage to foetuses, over one million abortions were performed across Europe in the year following the disaster.

And now, two warring countries dice with death over Zaporizhzhya, Europe’s largest nuclear power complex and one of the 10 largest in the world. Most recent attacks occurred between 2022 and 2024. Fighting in 2022 led up to Russia wresting management of the complex. While it was going on, a large calibre bullet pierced the outer wall of reactor number four and an artillery shell hit a transformer in reactor number six.

In April 2024, the IAEA reported the plant was attacked by a swarm of drones, three of them torching surveillance and communication equipment. There were three direct hits on containment structures. On 11 August, fire broke out in one of two cooling towers. Zelensky blames Putin for the attacks, Putin blames Zelensky. Putin is probably right. Why would Russia attack the complex it now managed? Both tend to downplay the disastrous consequences an attack on the reactors or their electricity and cooling systems would have on civilian populations across Europe. They would be similar if not worse than the results of the Chernobyl fiasco.

Although badgered by journalists following his 22 August address, Grossi refused to attribute blame for the attacks at Zaporizhzhia and who might initiate them at Kursk. He said the IAEA was not a political organisation, and blame would be up to the UN Security Council. He would not get into speculation. When pressed, however, he said if his investigations led to clear evidence of the perpetrators, he would call them out. Meanwhile, he was about to go to Kursk and examine the situation in conjunction with the managers and engineers of the nuclear complex there. He then planned to separately see both Putin and Zelensky.

What the whole situation should bring home to Australian politicians and their backers in the nuclear industry, who so blithely recommend the construction of a dozen-odd nuclear reactor complexes here, is the widespread lethal damage a kinetic attack on any one of them would cause in this country. We already see that US military and surveillance installations would become natural targets for China if ever war breaks out over Taiwan. Nuclear reactors would pose a much wider damage to the civilian population.

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