The outcome in the recent US presidential election may yet push Taiwan in directions at variance with those advocated in a new article published in the America journal Foreign Affairs, which argues that: “China’s Gray-Zone Offensive Against Taiwan is Backfiring”.
David Sacks provides an up-to-date review of the highly significant relationship between the US and Taiwan in this new Foreign Affairs article. It details what Sacks sees as the central carrot and stick aspects of Beijing’s current Taiwan policy, with a strong emphasis on the stick-end of that political equation.
Sacks contends that Beijing’s “combination of inducements and threats – a marriage proposal at gunpoint” has resulted in Taiwan “stiffening its resolve inspired in part by Ukraine standing up to Russia.” He stresses the need for still more military preparations and spending by Taiwan to prepare “for the fight that it cannot lose.”
Sacks notes how Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party believes that Taiwan is “already an independent and sovereign nation formally called the Republic of China (ROC).” He disapprovingly mentions the “so-called 1992 Consensus” – that there is only One China -but avoids recording how the ROC constitution, which dates from 1947 and still applies in Taiwan, explicitly endorses the fact that there is only “One China.” Its stated geographic scope covers all of what is now the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan.
Like many articles on Taiwan written from a US perspective, an underlying, occasionally explicit, concern is the paramount importance of America’s “vital strategic interest” in Taiwan. Which brings us to the recent US re-election of Donald Trump as President (decided after this article was written). There are already signs, looking forward, that the way the US understands its vital strategic interest in Taiwan may be subject to adjustment.
The multibillionaire American entrepreneur, Elon Musk, unequivocally supported President Trump – financially and through endorsement – during the election and he is now so closely aligned, that Mr Trump asked Musk to speak with President Zelensky of Ukraine during a recent Trump-Zelensky phone call.
Moreover, it is widely expected that Mr Musk will undertake a serious role in the new Trump administration, possibly acting as a “shadow Vice President”.
So, what might his advice to President Trump be on Taiwan? Elon Musk has a reputation for being unpredictable but his views on Taiwan seem steady. A recent report in the Guardian noted how:
In September last year he asserted Taiwan was an integral part of China akin to the US state of Hawaii, and that it was only “arbitrarily” separated because of US protection. In the 2022 interview he recommended Taiwan accept a level of control similar to Hong Kong – something Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject.
The same report said that, Elon Musk’s SpaceX had requested Taiwanese suppliers to move manufacturing to other countries due to “geopolitical concerns”.
Meanwhile, according to the Asia Times, “over half of Tesla’s global car production takes place at its massive Shanghai factory”. Musk is Tesla’s largest shareholder and its CEO.
Furthermore, Barron’s lately reported that: “Trump caused jitters on the campaign trail by suggesting Taiwan should pay the United States for its defence, and accusing the island of stealing the US semiconductor industry.” Amanda Hsiao of the International Crisis Group, added that Trump’s policy on Taiwan was: “highly uncertain”.
A week is a long time in US-Taiwan politics.
Richard Cullen is an Adjunct Professor in the Faculty of Law at the University of Hong Kong. He was previously a Professor in the Department of Business Law and Taxation at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.
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