AMYGOODMAN: Lets start with the surprise announcement, after the phone conversation between Erdogan and Trump, that the U.S. is pulling back its troops for Turkey to attack in northern Syria. Explain what you understand is happening and the significance of this.

**PATRICKCOCKBURN:**Well, this is really whats a Shakespearean act of betrayal. The Turks, Turkish Army is planning to come across the border with Syria. This means that the Kurds, who have been fightingISIS, fighting Daesh, will mostly flee southwards. This is about 2 million people. So, were going to have what is, in effect, a major act of ethnic cleansing there. Its not clear, from what the White House says, how far the Turks will go. They say its going to be on the border, but they also say the Turks are going to take over a refugee camp full of formerISISmembers, particularly women and children, a place called al-Hawl. But thats right over on the Iraqi border. If the Turks go that far, then theyre taking over a big chunk of northeast Syria.

So, this is sort of good news for the Turks. Its very bad news for the Kurds, who lost 11,000 dead, fightingISIS. And forISIS, its very good news, because it means that their main opponent, the Syrian Kurdish forces, are either going to be fighting the Kurds the Turks or are going to be running away or going to be dead. So, this is the sort of news I thinkISIShas been waiting for, for its opponents to split up.

And its pretty extraordinary the statement says, We defeatedISISon the ground. All the troops on the ground were led by the Kurds and some Arab allies. There was U.S. airpower, but the defeat was by the Kurds, who are not mentioned in this new agreement between Turkey and the U.S. So, it really is an extraordinary act of treachery.

**AMYGOODMAN:**Trump tweeted this morning, [I]t is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WEWILLFIGHTWHEREIT IS TOOURBENEFIT,ANDONLYFIGHTTOWIN. Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to figure the situation out, and what they want to do with the capturedISISfighters in their neighborhood. They all hateISIS, have been enemies for years. We are 7000 miles away and will crushISISagain if they come anywhere near us! exclamation point. So, if you could respond further to that, Patrick Cockburn? Again, its not clear if Trump is saying hell bring the U.S. troops home or just move them over for this Turkish onslaught.

**PATRICKCOCKBURN:**Yeah, I mean, the significance of this may not be obvious to people who dont know that piece of that part of northern Syria, that the Kurdish population generally lives just south of the frontier line between Turkey and Syria. So the Turkish Army doesnt have to move very far south to take over all the Kurdish cities, like Qamishli and Kobani and other places. So, as soon as they move a little bit south, you have a massive exodus of Kurds in that area.

So, you know, the statement says that is an isolationist manifesto, in a way, saying we have nothing to do with this. But they might have told the Kurds beforehand, because, as I said, it was the Kurds who actually fought and defeatedISISsince 2014. And Turkey, for quite a long part of that period, was allowing all these foreign fighters to cross the border from Turkey into Syria. A lot of these people who are now in this refugee camp at al-Hawl, how did they get into Syria? Well, they just crossed over the Turkish border without being impeded over that time, because there was a sort of tolerant attitude on the part of Turkey towardsISIS. And Turkey made perfectly clear that if it preferredISISto win rather than the Kurds. We saw that at the siege of a Kurdish city called Kobani in 2014.

**AMYGOODMAN:**Earlier today, the United Nations warned against the Turkish invasion of northern Syria. Panos Moumtzis is the U.N. regional humanitarian chief for the Syria crisis. This is what he said.

**PANOSMOUMTZIS:**Its a conflict that has gone on for far too long, and, therefore, any operation that takes place at the moment has to take into account to ensure that we dont see any further displacement. We dont know whats going to happen. We are preparing for the worst, because, indeed, from experience, this could result to a displacement of people. We want to make sure that we are ready.

**AMYGOODMAN:**Patrick, thats the U.N. regional humanitarian coordinator for the Syria crisis. Your response?

**PATRICKCOCKBURN:**Sure. Well, unfortunately, we know all too well whats likely to happen, because the Turkish Army already, last year, crossed the Syrian border into a Kurdish enclave called Afrin it was almost entirely Kurdish-populated and drove out the Kurdish population. President Erdogan of Turkey announced halfway through that he discovered that the original population of this area didnt say when was Arab, and they should be allowed back. So, you had what was, basically, one of the very few peaceful parts of Syria suddenly devastated by war and the Kurds driven out.

And that seems to have been an early preview of what were likely to see in the rest of northern Syria, which is the Turkish Army crossing the border, the Kurds fleeing south its not clear where theyll go and a resurgence ofISIS, because theyll no longer be fighting the Kurds. So, I think weve got a very good idea whats going to happen. And unfortunately, this is happening at a moment when the war in Syria seemed to be ebbing. It was still going on in different parts of the country, but nothing like what we had seen before. So, its suddenly been had a new life being injected into it by this decision by Trump.

Amy Goodmanis a correspondent for Democracy Now.Patrick Cockburn is a senior correspondent for the UK Independent newspaper and specialises in Middle Eastern affairs.