Writer
Geoff Miller
Geoff Miller is a former diplomat and government official. He was Director-General, Office of National Assessments, deputy secretary, Department of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador to Japan and the Republic of Korea, and High Commissioner to New Zealand.
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US, China, Australia: what are we getting into?
Next week our Foreign and Defence Ministers will visit the US to meet their US counterparts, at the latters’ invitation. Is the aim to recruit us to the United States’ anti-China campaign? Continue reading »
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Australia’s Defence: All the way with the USA, again?
The PM’s July speech launching the new strategic documents presents an alarming picture of the state of our immediate region, on which he says the Government will focus. Continue reading »
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The US and China: can “peer competitors” cooperate?
Extensive talks in Hawaii on 18 June between US Secretary of State Pompeo and Chinese Politburo member responsible for international affairs, Yang Jiechi, could have been a significant step in the two powers’ difficult relationship, but security has been tight and what they achieved is not yet clear. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. ‘G5-Eyes’: a very strange economic grouping.
According to a report in The Australian of 8 June Treasurer Frydenberg has “led the push” and succeeded in establishing a series of “regular and formal” economic dialogue meetings among the countries that make up the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing group. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: After the Pandemic; more self-reliance, more costs too.
Australia will want and need to play a meaningful role in mitigating these consequences. This will be a significant load on top of restoring our own economy, but will be crucial to our place in the Asia-Pacific, and should from the start be an integral part of our recovery planning. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER; United States; Portraying the policy reality.
Recently the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command spoke in Sydney. He criticised China’s behaviour in very strong terms, but in talking about the United States’ role and attitudes he described a set of policies that no longer exist. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: Trump, North Korea, Iran.
Trump’s decision to order the assassination of Iranian General Soleimani is understandably dominating coverage and analysis of world affairs, completely overshadowing consideration of Kim Jong Un’s end of year statement, even though it had been somewhat anxiously awaited. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. The Good American.
Even a “good American” uses language in regard to China that raises questions about America’s stance in its envisaged long existential struggle with China. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: Trump in North Asia; policy changes?
A lot of the reactions to President Trump’s visits to the G20 in Osaka and to Korea have been scathing, but there are some positive signs in regard to both US-China trade issues and negotiations with North Korea. But having encouraged hard-line one-dimensional attitudes on both issues within the US, Trump may find that maintaining Continue reading »
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GEOFFREY MILLER. Intelligence and the function of government. (Australian Outlook 9.1.2019)
“Intelligence and the Function of Government”, edited by Daniel Baldino and Rhys Crawley, contains a great deal of useful material on the Australian Intelligence Community (AIC), intelligence issues and intelligence in relation to government. It consists of 12 chapters, covering topics such as the history of the AIC, intelligence as an academic discipline and, very Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER; Whatever Happened to North Korea?
There was a lot of scepticism about the Singapore summit between Trump and Kim and what it might produce, but some sort of process between North Korea and the US seemed the logical next step. However, while further summits between North and South Korea have taken place, and there has been actual progress between the Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. The Moon-Kim Summit—what did it do, what did it amount to?
The Moon-Kim Summit in North Korea made some modest but significant achievements. The two leaders seemed surprisingly at ease with each other. How the meeting is assessed depends very much on the mind-set of the assessor, and what it achieves will depend very much on what the principals really want. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Challenges facing the new foreign policy team.
There are many uncertainties and unresolved issues facing the new government within its own ranks. These are paralleled by the international situation it has to deal with. As former Prime Minister Turnbull said in his introduction to last year’s Foreign Policy White Paper, “change, unprecedented in its scale and pace, is the tenor of our Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Trump and the World Trade Organisation.
Many US non-governmental trade experts describe the Trump Administration’s actions in regard to tariffs and the WTO and its Appellate Body as illegal, and as threatening the WTO’s continued existence. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Trump’s unilateral use of economic power: will it work, and what about the consequences?
Trump’s actual and threatened use of the United States’ economic power to bring about changes in other States’ behaviour raises questions about the utility of such behaviour and its likely consequences, as well as about the United States’ commitment to multi-lateral institutions. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Iran: No bombing until…..
It’s a relief that last week’s story has been hosed down both here and in the US, but causes for concern remain. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Trump-Kim Summit: What happens after a “day from a science fiction movie”?
Kim Jong Un was reported to have said that his meeting with Trump was like scenes from a science fiction movie. At times the TV coverage—all those banners—did seem rather like that, but what happens next? I think that at least the medium-term outcome could be much more like the Chinese and Russian prescription of Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. The US-North Korea Negotiations: Death to Forecasters!
The “pre-negotiation process” going on between the US and North Korea is volatile and opaque, but a few points seem to have emerged. James Bond novels used to feature a sinister Soviet organisation called SMERSH—short for “Death to Spies” in Russian. The twists and reversals in the process that may lead to a Trump-Kim summit Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Korea: a comprehensive and step-by-step solution?
That is the phrase that senior South Korean officials are using for what they hope to see resulting from coming summits, which they now envisage as involving, after the North Korea-US meeting, a tri-partite summit between the two Koreas and the US, in turn to be followed by a four-party summit of those three plus Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. The ASEAN meeting in Sydney and the Quad – same same but different.
Singapore and Australia are having to deal with the same set of problems and relationships as the strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific changes. Singapore isn’t a contender for an expanded “Quad” but, as next year’s Chairman of ASEAN, it will have an important role to play in one of the Turnbull Government’s major foreign policy Continue reading »
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Trump and Turnbull must recognise that China is not going away
Foreshadowed warnings by American spokesmen to the Prime Minister and his party during their coming visit to the United States about the rise of China reflect a belated realisation on America’s part that the China challenge is for real, but do not reflect the position of Australia, which has important links to both competing powers. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: White Paper versus White’s Paper; some questions about Australian policies.
The Foreign Policy White Paper issued late last year is based on its judgement that “the United States’ long-term interests will anchor its economic and security engagement in the Indo-Pacific”. Is this right? Hugh White asserts the opposite. And whether it’s right or not, it seems we’re going to try to make it happen. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Singapore, Australia, “the Quad” and ASEAN—same same but different!
Singapore and Australia are having to deal with the same set of problems and relationships as the strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific changes. Singapore isn’t a contender for an expanded “Quad” but, as next year’s Chairman of ASEAN, it will have an important role to play in one of the Turnbull Government’s major foreign policy Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Xi Jinping’s China: this too will pass?
Xi Jinping’s first five years have produced a China in which the Communist Party is in more control of more things, and restrictions on dissent and the free expression of opinion have grown. The recently concluded Party Congress seems to offer more of the same. But how will this recipe stand with a population growing Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. North Korea: see you, and raise.
Trump’s apocalyptic speech to the UN, combined with Mattis’s comments, are designed both to daunt Kim Jong Un and to alarm China and Russia into putting more pressure on him. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Korea: Missiles or exercises or both?
Despite President Trump’s latest supercilious Tweet, North Korea may still seek to make the cancellation of exercise Ulchi-Freedom Guardian the price of not firing its missiles into waters near Guam. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Kim Jong Un – Forcing the pace, or forging a peace?
Kim Jong Un’s continual provocation of the United States can probably be best explained as a considered strategy to bring about negotiations between the two. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Shangri-la and AUSMIN—assertions, contradictions and questions.
Prime Minister Turnbull’s keynote speech last weekend at the Shangri-la security dialogue in Singapore contained many strong assertions, but also contradictions. It also raised, and left unanswered, some big questions. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. “Decline and Fall of America”? No, but a very difficult patch.
President Trump’s actions, and the international reactions to them, are so bad that the question naturally arises, “are we witnessing the beginning of the long-term decline of the West, and of the US in particular?” Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. The Asia-Pacific: Busy Times, Big Choices
A number of recent, current and in prospect events emphasise the importance of clear thinking in regard to Australia’s policy stances in the Asia-Pacific. They include the Trump Administration’s warming to China (despite pre-election rhetoric) especially in regard to trade, where a major deal has been done very quickly, and cooperation in regard to North Continue reading »
