Writer
Geoff Miller
Geoff Miller is a former diplomat and government official. He was Director-General, Office of National Assessments, deputy secretary, Department of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador to Japan and the Republic of Korea, and High Commissioner to New Zealand.
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The Defence Strategic Review: We should regard the Taiwan issue as one for us to ‘sit out’
It is almost impossible to imagine any realistic circumstances, short of general war in the Asia-Pacific, under which China would launch a military attack on Australia. Continue reading »
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What Ministers in a new Government should do – climate change, China-US relations and our region
Foreign policy must be one of the areas where any government can find itself most constrained by the circumstances it has to deal with—“events, dear boy, events”, as former British Prime Minister Harold McMillan once said. But given that, even in the most pressing state of affairs a government can choose where it directs its Continue reading »
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Australia is still in Fear of China
The former eminent Australian diplomat Sir James Plimsoll once described China as “a big fact”. It is big, and it is a fact, and we have to get used to it. Continue reading »
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Australia-China relations: will “face” trump trade?
China’s refusal to deal with Australia at Ministerial level is likely to frustrate its effort to join an important Pacific trade agreement. Continue reading »
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Ukraine, India, China and Australia: a Khaki election?
Prime Minister Morrison seems to want to fix in concrete what he says he and we should most fear—a Russia-China “alliance of autocracies”. He treats similar responses to the Ukraine crisis by China and by our fellow Quad member India very differently. Could the coming election be the reason? Continue reading »
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The Quad: it’s the US playing catch-up with China, but where does it lead?
For the emergence of a sustainable and mutually tolerable “Pacific strategic system” we should be aiming to make that system inclusive, not split down the middle with Quad. Continue reading »
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Now you see what it’s like in Ukraine
In massing large numbers of troops near the Ukraine Putin may have been aiming to show NATO and the West how Russia—and Putin himself in particular—has felt over the years as the Western alliance and NATO crept ever closer to Russia’s borders. Continue reading »
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China-Australia relations: A way out of the freeze?
China’s stated wish to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) could, if we are skilful, give us a path to promote the restoration of more normal diplomatic relations. Continue reading »
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The ‘forever submarines’ go nuclear
The nuclear submarine deal intensifies Australia’s military cooperation with the US. It will be up to our regional neighbours to decide whether, as Scott Morrison says, the deal will help and not hinder them. Continue reading »
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Strategic stances at an uncertain time
The unimpressive end to the United States’ commitment to Afghanistan emphasises the questions facing Australia in regard to the future security of the Asia-Pacific. Different approaches are being put forward, including greater self-reliance, and greater involvement with the US. Continue reading »
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Both Afghanistan and the US at an uncertain time
It’s possible, and much to be hoped, that some of the worst fears for the Afghan people under the Taliban will not be realised. But the United States’ standing in the world has been damaged. Continue reading »
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Defence cooperation with the US at an uncertain time
Only by acknowledging China’s importance in the region while working with others to influence, if we can, their approach and actions can we achieve the peaceful, prosperous and stable region that we want to live in. Continue reading »
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The world after 2020
What a year 2020 was for Australia, with first the fires and then the pandemic. Now at the end of it, we’re still confronted with the challenges of climate change in the shape of floods, not fires, and our Prime Minister unable to get a speaking slot at an international climate change conference. Continue reading »
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The main game must be to get US, China relations on a better footing
Whoever wins the imminent US Presidential election, US-China relations will continue to be the most important geo-political issue for the world, and for Australia. Continue reading »
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US, China, Australia. Now we know what we’re getting into: a full-fledged anti-China campaign
Very recent actions by the US and Australian governments, and statements in both countries, make it clear that our Foreign and Defence Ministers will be invited to sign on to a full-fledged anti-China campaign and even a coalition when in the US this week. Continue reading »
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US, China, Australia: what are we getting into?
Next week our Foreign and Defence Ministers will visit the US to meet their US counterparts, at the latters’ invitation. Is the aim to recruit us to the United States’ anti-China campaign? Continue reading »
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Australia’s Defence: All the way with the USA, again?
The PM’s July speech launching the new strategic documents presents an alarming picture of the state of our immediate region, on which he says the Government will focus. Continue reading »
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The US and China: can “peer competitors” cooperate?
Extensive talks in Hawaii on 18 June between US Secretary of State Pompeo and Chinese Politburo member responsible for international affairs, Yang Jiechi, could have been a significant step in the two powers’ difficult relationship, but security has been tight and what they achieved is not yet clear. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. ‘G5-Eyes’: a very strange economic grouping.
According to a report in The Australian of 8 June Treasurer Frydenberg has “led the push” and succeeded in establishing a series of “regular and formal” economic dialogue meetings among the countries that make up the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing group. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: After the Pandemic; more self-reliance, more costs too.
Australia will want and need to play a meaningful role in mitigating these consequences. This will be a significant load on top of restoring our own economy, but will be crucial to our place in the Asia-Pacific, and should from the start be an integral part of our recovery planning. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER; United States; Portraying the policy reality.
Recently the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command spoke in Sydney. He criticised China’s behaviour in very strong terms, but in talking about the United States’ role and attitudes he described a set of policies that no longer exist. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: Trump, North Korea, Iran.
Trump’s decision to order the assassination of Iranian General Soleimani is understandably dominating coverage and analysis of world affairs, completely overshadowing consideration of Kim Jong Un’s end of year statement, even though it had been somewhat anxiously awaited. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. The Good American.
Even a “good American” uses language in regard to China that raises questions about America’s stance in its envisaged long existential struggle with China. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: Trump in North Asia; policy changes?
A lot of the reactions to President Trump’s visits to the G20 in Osaka and to Korea have been scathing, but there are some positive signs in regard to both US-China trade issues and negotiations with North Korea. But having encouraged hard-line one-dimensional attitudes on both issues within the US, Trump may find that maintaining Continue reading »
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GEOFFREY MILLER. Intelligence and the function of government. (Australian Outlook 9.1.2019)
“Intelligence and the Function of Government”, edited by Daniel Baldino and Rhys Crawley, contains a great deal of useful material on the Australian Intelligence Community (AIC), intelligence issues and intelligence in relation to government. It consists of 12 chapters, covering topics such as the history of the AIC, intelligence as an academic discipline and, very Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER; Whatever Happened to North Korea?
There was a lot of scepticism about the Singapore summit between Trump and Kim and what it might produce, but some sort of process between North Korea and the US seemed the logical next step. However, while further summits between North and South Korea have taken place, and there has been actual progress between the Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. The Moon-Kim Summit—what did it do, what did it amount to?
The Moon-Kim Summit in North Korea made some modest but significant achievements. The two leaders seemed surprisingly at ease with each other. How the meeting is assessed depends very much on the mind-set of the assessor, and what it achieves will depend very much on what the principals really want. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Challenges facing the new foreign policy team.
There are many uncertainties and unresolved issues facing the new government within its own ranks. These are paralleled by the international situation it has to deal with. As former Prime Minister Turnbull said in his introduction to last year’s Foreign Policy White Paper, “change, unprecedented in its scale and pace, is the tenor of our Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Trump and the World Trade Organisation.
Many US non-governmental trade experts describe the Trump Administration’s actions in regard to tariffs and the WTO and its Appellate Body as illegal, and as threatening the WTO’s continued existence. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. Trump’s unilateral use of economic power: will it work, and what about the consequences?
Trump’s actual and threatened use of the United States’ economic power to bring about changes in other States’ behaviour raises questions about the utility of such behaviour and its likely consequences, as well as about the United States’ commitment to multi-lateral institutions. Continue reading »
