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Author Archives: Geoff Miller
US, China, Australia. Now we know what we’re getting into: a full-fledged anti-China campaign
Very recent actions by the US and Australian governments, and statements in both countries, make it clear that our Foreign and Defence Ministers will be invited to sign on to a full-fledged anti-China campaign and even a coalition when in … Continue reading
Posted in China, Defence/Security
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US, China, Australia: what are we getting into?
Next week our Foreign and Defence Ministers will visit the US to meet their US counterparts, at the latters’ invitation. Is the aim to recruit us to the United States’ anti-China campaign?
Posted in Asia, World Affairs
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Australia’s Defence: All the way with the USA, again?
The PM’s July speech launching the new strategic documents presents an alarming picture of the state of our immediate region, on which he says the Government will focus.
Posted in Defence/Security, Politics
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The US and China: can “peer competitors” cooperate?
Extensive talks in Hawaii on 18 June between US Secretary of State Pompeo and Chinese Politburo member responsible for international affairs, Yang Jiechi, could have been a significant step in the two powers’ difficult relationship, but security has been tight … Continue reading
Posted in Asia
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GEOFF MILLER. ‘G5-Eyes’: a very strange economic grouping.
According to a report in The Australian of 8 June Treasurer Frydenberg has “led the push” and succeeded in establishing a series of “regular and formal” economic dialogue meetings among the countries that make up the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing group.
Posted in Defence/Security, Economy
8 Comments
GEOFF MILLER: After the Pandemic; more self-reliance, more costs too.
Australia will want and need to play a meaningful role in mitigating these consequences. This will be a significant load on top of restoring our own economy, but will be crucial to our place in the Asia-Pacific, and should from … Continue reading
Posted in Asia, World Affairs
2 Comments
GEOFF MILLER; United States; Portraying the policy reality.
Recently the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command spoke in Sydney. He criticised China’s behaviour in very strong terms, but in talking about the United States’ role and attitudes he described a set of policies that no longer exist.
Posted in Politics
5 Comments
GEOFF MILLER: Trump, North Korea, Iran.
Trump’s decision to order the assassination of Iranian General Soleimani is understandably dominating coverage and analysis of world affairs, completely overshadowing consideration of Kim Jong Un’s end of year statement, even though it had been somewhat anxiously awaited.
GEOFF MILLER. The Good American.
Even a “good American” uses language in regard to China that raises questions about America’s stance in its envisaged long existential struggle with China.
Posted in World Affairs
4 Comments
GEOFF MILLER: Trump in North Asia; policy changes?
A lot of the reactions to President Trump’s visits to the G20 in Osaka and to Korea have been scathing, but there are some positive signs in regard to both US-China trade issues and negotiations with North Korea. But having … Continue reading
Posted in Asia, World Affairs
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GEOFFREY MILLER. Intelligence and the function of government. (Australian Outlook 9.1.2019)
“Intelligence and the Function of Government”, edited by Daniel Baldino and Rhys Crawley, contains a great deal of useful material on the Australian Intelligence Community (AIC), intelligence issues and intelligence in relation to government. It consists of 12 chapters, covering … Continue reading
Posted in Defence/Security, World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER; Whatever Happened to North Korea?
There was a lot of scepticism about the Singapore summit between Trump and Kim and what it might produce, but some sort of process between North Korea and the US seemed the logical next step. However, while further summits between … Continue reading
Posted in World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER. The Moon-Kim Summit—what did it do, what did it amount to?
The Moon-Kim Summit in North Korea made some modest but significant achievements. The two leaders seemed surprisingly at ease with each other. How the meeting is assessed depends very much on the mind-set of the assessor, and what it achieves … Continue reading
Posted in Asia, World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER. Challenges facing the new foreign policy team.
There are many uncertainties and unresolved issues facing the new government within its own ranks. These are paralleled by the international situation it has to deal with. As former Prime Minister Turnbull said in his introduction to last year’s Foreign … Continue reading
Posted in World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER. Trump and the World Trade Organisation.
Many US non-governmental trade experts describe the Trump Administration’s actions in regard to tariffs and the WTO and its Appellate Body as illegal, and as threatening the WTO’s continued existence.
Posted in World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER. Trump’s unilateral use of economic power: will it work, and what about the consequences?
Trump’s actual and threatened use of the United States’ economic power to bring about changes in other States’ behaviour raises questions about the utility of such behaviour and its likely consequences, as well as about the United States’ commitment to … Continue reading
Posted in World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER. Iran: No bombing until…..
It’s a relief that last week’s story has been hosed down both here and in the US, but causes for concern remain.
Posted in World Affairs
4 Comments
GEOFF MILLER. Trump-Kim Summit: What happens after a “day from a science fiction movie”?
Kim Jong Un was reported to have said that his meeting with Trump was like scenes from a science fiction movie. At times the TV coverage—all those banners—did seem rather like that, but what happens next? I think that at … Continue reading
Posted in Asia, World Affairs
2 Comments
GEOFF MILLER. The US-North Korea Negotiations: Death to Forecasters!
The “pre-negotiation process” going on between the US and North Korea is volatile and opaque, but a few points seem to have emerged. James Bond novels used to feature a sinister Soviet organisation called SMERSH—short for “Death to Spies” in … Continue reading
Posted in World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER. Korea: a comprehensive and step-by-step solution?
That is the phrase that senior South Korean officials are using for what they hope to see resulting from coming summits, which they now envisage as involving, after the North Korea-US meeting, a tri-partite summit between the two Koreas and … Continue reading
Posted in Defence/Security, World Affairs
1 Comment
GEOFF MILLER. The ASEAN meeting in Sydney and the Quad – same same but different.
Singapore and Australia are having to deal with the same set of problems and relationships as the strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific changes. Singapore isn’t a contender for an expanded “Quad” but, as next year’s Chairman of ASEAN, it will … Continue reading
Posted in Asia, Defence/Security, World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER: Trump and Turnbull must recognise that China is not going away.
Foreshadowed warnings by American spokesmen to the Prime Minister and his party during their coming visit to the United States about the rise of China reflect a belated realisation on America’s part that the China challenge is for real, but … Continue reading
Posted in Asia, World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER: White Paper versus White’s Paper; some questions about Australian policies.
The Foreign Policy White Paper issued late last year is based on its judgement that “the United States’ long-term interests will anchor its economic and security engagement in the Indo-Pacific”. Is this right? Hugh White asserts the opposite. And whether … Continue reading
Posted in World Affairs
2 Comments
GEOFF MILLER. Singapore, Australia, “the Quad” and ASEAN—same same but different!
Singapore and Australia are having to deal with the same set of problems and relationships as the strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific changes. Singapore isn’t a contender for an expanded “Quad” but, as next year’s Chairman of ASEAN, it will … Continue reading
Posted in Asia, World Affairs
3 Comments
GEOFF MILLER. Xi Jinping’s China: this too will pass?
Xi Jinping’s first five years have produced a China in which the Communist Party is in more control of more things, and restrictions on dissent and the free expression of opinion have grown. The recently concluded Party Congress seems to … Continue reading
Posted in World Affairs
4 Comments
GEOFF MILLER. North Korea: see you, and raise.
Trump’s apocalyptic speech to the UN, combined with Mattis’s comments, are designed both to daunt Kim Jong Un and to alarm China and Russia into putting more pressure on him.
Posted in World Affairs
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GEOFF MILLER. Korea: Missiles or exercises or both?
Despite President Trump’s latest supercilious Tweet, North Korea may still seek to make the cancellation of exercise Ulchi-Freedom Guardian the price of not firing its missiles into waters near Guam.
Posted in Defence/Security, World Affairs
2 Comments
GEOFF MILLER. Kim Jong Un – Forcing the pace, or forging a peace?
Kim Jong Un’s continual provocation of the United States can probably be best explained as a considered strategy to bring about negotiations between the two.
Posted in Defence/Security, World Affairs
1 Comment
GEOFF MILLER. Shangri-la and AUSMIN—assertions, contradictions and questions.
Prime Minister Turnbull’s keynote speech last weekend at the Shangri-la security dialogue in Singapore contained many strong assertions, but also contradictions. It also raised, and left unanswered, some big questions.
Posted in Defence/Security, World Affairs
4 Comments
GEOFF MILLER. “Decline and Fall of America”? No, but a very difficult patch.
President Trump’s actions, and the international reactions to them, are so bad that the question naturally arises, “are we witnessing the beginning of the long-term decline of the West, and of the US in particular?”
Posted in Defence/Security, World Affairs
6 Comments