Writer
Geoff Miller
Geoff Miller is a former diplomat and government official. He was Director-General, Office of National Assessments, deputy secretary, Department of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador to Japan and the Republic of Korea, and High Commissioner to New Zealand.
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Asia, China, Government, Politics, World
The Wily Occidentals
Can Australia reconcile the American and Chinese strands of its foreign policy? Continue reading »
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The US in Australia—and in China!
The coming week will see an enormous festival of US alliances with and in Australia, with the biggest “Talisman Sabre” exercise ever, and a visit to Australia by the US Secretaries of State and Defence for the annual “AUSMIN” talks. All of this has been made more glamorous by the arrival of a new US Continue reading »
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Shangri-la Dialogue: some Americans just don’t get China
Prime Minister Albanese spoke moderately and positively at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore last weekend, although his address didn’t really live up to its prior publicity. However the main impression from the exchanges at the Dialogue was of the differences between the US and China. Amazingly, the American Secretary of Defence didn’t seem to realise Continue reading »
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North Korea: same old, or another ticking bomb?
Continued missile testing by North Korea invites the question, why do they do it? It’s tempting to regard it as “just what they do”, but is that all there is to it? Is it “urgent but not important”? What about the response? Continue reading »
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The Asia-Pacific: strategic equilibrium, not primacy
When there has been so much loose talk about what would be a catastrophic war between the world’s two major powers, it is both significant and welcome that Foreign Minister Penny Wong has authoritatively stated her position that the Asia-Pacific is a multipolar region, and that this is Australia’s national policy at this time. Continue reading »
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A long game—peace in the Asia-Pacific
Perhaps Australia should play the “long game”, and do everything we can to avoid a war in the Pacific, not just work out how we might take part in one. Continue reading »
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AUKUS: A greedy pup
It seems that poor old Albanese has been sold a very greedy—though only virtual—pup. Think of the comparison with another Labor PM, Ben Chifley. Albanese doesn’t come out of it very well. Continue reading »
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For Australia, horror of war over Taiwan is not inevitable
Contributors to the “War with China over Taiwan” horror show which began in the Nine newspapers this week assume that a war between China and the United States is likely, and some of them then explicitly say that Australia would be involved. Australia should instead regard the Taiwan issue as one for us to “sit Continue reading »
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The Defence Strategic Review: We should regard the Taiwan issue as one for us to ‘sit out’
It is almost impossible to imagine any realistic circumstances, short of general war in the Asia-Pacific, under which China would launch a military attack on Australia. Continue reading »
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What Ministers in a new Government should do – climate change, China-US relations and our region
Foreign policy must be one of the areas where any government can find itself most constrained by the circumstances it has to deal with—“events, dear boy, events”, as former British Prime Minister Harold McMillan once said. But given that, even in the most pressing state of affairs a government can choose where it directs its Continue reading »
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Australia is still in Fear of China
The former eminent Australian diplomat Sir James Plimsoll once described China as “a big fact”. It is big, and it is a fact, and we have to get used to it. Continue reading »
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Australia-China relations: will “face” trump trade?
China’s refusal to deal with Australia at Ministerial level is likely to frustrate its effort to join an important Pacific trade agreement. Continue reading »
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Ukraine, India, China and Australia: a Khaki election?
Prime Minister Morrison seems to want to fix in concrete what he says he and we should most fear—a Russia-China “alliance of autocracies”. He treats similar responses to the Ukraine crisis by China and by our fellow Quad member India very differently. Could the coming election be the reason? Continue reading »
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The Quad: it’s the US playing catch-up with China, but where does it lead?
For the emergence of a sustainable and mutually tolerable “Pacific strategic system” we should be aiming to make that system inclusive, not split down the middle with Quad. Continue reading »
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Now you see what it’s like in Ukraine
In massing large numbers of troops near the Ukraine Putin may have been aiming to show NATO and the West how Russia—and Putin himself in particular—has felt over the years as the Western alliance and NATO crept ever closer to Russia’s borders. Continue reading »
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China-Australia relations: A way out of the freeze?
China’s stated wish to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) could, if we are skilful, give us a path to promote the restoration of more normal diplomatic relations. Continue reading »
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The ‘forever submarines’ go nuclear
The nuclear submarine deal intensifies Australia’s military cooperation with the US. It will be up to our regional neighbours to decide whether, as Scott Morrison says, the deal will help and not hinder them. Continue reading »
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Strategic stances at an uncertain time
The unimpressive end to the United States’ commitment to Afghanistan emphasises the questions facing Australia in regard to the future security of the Asia-Pacific. Different approaches are being put forward, including greater self-reliance, and greater involvement with the US. Continue reading »
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Both Afghanistan and the US at an uncertain time
It’s possible, and much to be hoped, that some of the worst fears for the Afghan people under the Taliban will not be realised. But the United States’ standing in the world has been damaged. Continue reading »
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Defence cooperation with the US at an uncertain time
Only by acknowledging China’s importance in the region while working with others to influence, if we can, their approach and actions can we achieve the peaceful, prosperous and stable region that we want to live in. Continue reading »
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The world after 2020
What a year 2020 was for Australia, with first the fires and then the pandemic. Now at the end of it, we’re still confronted with the challenges of climate change in the shape of floods, not fires, and our Prime Minister unable to get a speaking slot at an international climate change conference. Continue reading »
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The main game must be to get US, China relations on a better footing
Whoever wins the imminent US Presidential election, US-China relations will continue to be the most important geo-political issue for the world, and for Australia. Continue reading »
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US, China, Australia. Now we know what we’re getting into: a full-fledged anti-China campaign
Very recent actions by the US and Australian governments, and statements in both countries, make it clear that our Foreign and Defence Ministers will be invited to sign on to a full-fledged anti-China campaign and even a coalition when in the US this week. Continue reading »
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US, China, Australia: what are we getting into?
Next week our Foreign and Defence Ministers will visit the US to meet their US counterparts, at the latters’ invitation. Is the aim to recruit us to the United States’ anti-China campaign? Continue reading »
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Australia’s Defence: All the way with the USA, again?
The PM’s July speech launching the new strategic documents presents an alarming picture of the state of our immediate region, on which he says the Government will focus. Continue reading »
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The US and China: can “peer competitors” cooperate?
Extensive talks in Hawaii on 18 June between US Secretary of State Pompeo and Chinese Politburo member responsible for international affairs, Yang Jiechi, could have been a significant step in the two powers’ difficult relationship, but security has been tight and what they achieved is not yet clear. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER. ‘G5-Eyes’: a very strange economic grouping.
According to a report in The Australian of 8 June Treasurer Frydenberg has “led the push” and succeeded in establishing a series of “regular and formal” economic dialogue meetings among the countries that make up the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing group. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: After the Pandemic; more self-reliance, more costs too.
Australia will want and need to play a meaningful role in mitigating these consequences. This will be a significant load on top of restoring our own economy, but will be crucial to our place in the Asia-Pacific, and should from the start be an integral part of our recovery planning. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER; United States; Portraying the policy reality.
Recently the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command spoke in Sydney. He criticised China’s behaviour in very strong terms, but in talking about the United States’ role and attitudes he described a set of policies that no longer exist. Continue reading »
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GEOFF MILLER: Trump, North Korea, Iran.
Trump’s decision to order the assassination of Iranian General Soleimani is understandably dominating coverage and analysis of world affairs, completely overshadowing consideration of Kim Jong Un’s end of year statement, even though it had been somewhat anxiously awaited. Continue reading »
