Cavan Hogue
Cavan Hogue is a former diplomat who has worked in Asia, Europe and the Americas as well as at the UN. He was Australian Ambassador to USSR and Russia, dually accredited to Ukraine. He also worked at ANU and Macquarie universities.
Cavan's recent articles
19 April 2024
No substitute for US exceptionalism: Manifest destiny made manifest
Manifest Destiny, now more commonly called American Exceptionalism is a traditional and widespread view in the US. American views of its relationship with the world vary from isolationism to leadership, but the underlying base is always that the US is something special. While some may be more subtle than others, how many Americans could accept that the US must resign itself to a silver or even a bronze medal in the power race?
23 January 2024
Does the Australian public want a republic?
One reason why the Republic referendum failed and why the result of another one is uncertain was confusion over just what the issues are. Like the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War, our lot spent so much time fighting among themselves they had no time left to face their opponents. We need to identify the issues and consider the behaviour patterns of human animals.
25 June 2023
A failed coup but what now?
The only possible winner is Ukraine. Both Putin and Prigozhin are losers. The situation remains unclear and what happens next remains to be seen. Rationality does not seem to be part of events.
21 March 2023
Submarine sovereignty? The devil is in the detail...
Our Defence Minister said that Australia has not given any guarantees to the USA about what we would do with our submarines in the case of war but would take our own decisions at the time. This is welcome but what are the implications? Does it only apply to the submarines? As always, the devil is in the detail.
12 March 2023
Albanese must state clearly what he means by sovereignty
Our prime minister declares firmly that Australian sovereignty will be maintained in the new defence arrangements. He must be asked to state clearly and publicly that should the USA go to war with China Australia will not necessarily follow but could remain neutral. If this is not the case, we do not have sovereignty.
17 November 2022
Xi is no longer Dr Fu Manchu?
After the meeting between Xi and Albanese, we will need patient diplomacy well away from the megaphone and from vested interests in defence industries. China is here to stay and love it or hate it we must learn to live with it. The present government is looking more like it understands this.
30 October 2022
Russia's illegal attack on Ukraine breaches the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
However insensitive and provocative NATO members may or may not have been and whatever weasel words Putin dredges up to justify his invasion of Ukraine, there can be no doubt that Russia is in breach of an undertaking it took not to use force against Ukraine in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
13 September 2022
The Defence Strategic Review and the received wisdom about the China threat and US support
We cannot assume that other countries will do anything but put their own interests before those of others and we must do the same.
17 July 2022
Power, rules and camp followers
Prime Minister Albaneses understanding of the outside world does not match his undoubted ability domestically...The contest between China and the USA is not about values but about power.
10 May 2022
If I were Foreign Minister in the new government
Australia has always been a follower in foreign and defence policy. When the British Lion lost its teeth we turned to the American Eagle which is currently losing its feathers.
3 March 2022
Tsar Vladimir's scorecard - off to a bad start
Putins invasion of Ukraine is not working out as he expected and may yet turn against him internationally and even domestically. At this stage, we can only speculate but things are not going well for Tsar Vladimir.
25 February 2022
Tsar Putin on the warpath
There are no simple explanations for the causes of Putins invasion and what will happen.
29 January 2022
Cavan Hogue: Ukraine is not just about goodies and baddies
Russians believe they were promised that NATO would not move east as a quid pro quo for accepting German unification.
13 December 2021
What lies behind our slogans and lecturing of other countries?
It's not enough to preach 'Western values'. Australia should instead try to understand those who don't agree with us.
18 September 2021
The deputy sheriff rides again with AUKUS
The AUKUS deal will cost us a lot of money, a substantial loss of sovereignty, a lowering of our reputation in the world and the potential to get dragged into a war we should avoid. But we will get our tummy tickled by our great white fathers.
16 September 2021
Cavan Hogue: Chile coup was another example of Australian support for US interests
National Archives documents released last week revealed how closely Australia's overseas spy agency worked with the CIA in the lead-up to the 1973 coup in Chile. Former diplomat Cavan Hogue reflects on the political and social environment at the time.
30 August 2021
White Mans Media: it's the white persons media
The media thunders forth from its citadel of truth against the infidels. Those chosen to comment on things Chinese are seldom people who have worked in China but hawks who spout the conservative line
18 July 2021
The harmful myths we live by about the US.
Defence Minister Dutton has upped the ante in some interesting comments on China and Afghanistan. He reinforces some myths we accept and states unequivocally our dependence on the US to protect us from evil for Thou art with us, Thy nukes and Thy military they comfort us.
14 June 2021
What actually is the G7? Is it a Western Club?
Climate change was a major theme and Australia was the shag on this rock. Morrison trotted out his usual line about doing what was in Australian interests which will not impress anyone outside of the naysayers back home.
23 May 2021
Is the US a reliable ally?
Australia has put almost all its defence eggs in the American basket at the cost of further weakening relations with China. We are betting that in our hour of need, the US will come to our aid. But will it? It is worth looking at the American record of supporting its allies of one kind or another. It is important to remember that ANZUS doesnt commit the US to anything if Australia is attacked except to think about what it wants to do.
25 January 2021
What do we really celebrate on Australia Day?
Spare a thought for Australian representatives abroad who face awkward questions about what we celebrate on our National Day. It just goes to highlight the confusion and hypocrisy about pretending it was a noble venture by heroic and benign colonisers.
11 January 2021
Empires come and go. Has the decline of the American empire begun?
Recent events have highlighted weaknesses in American society. There is much uncertainty about the future of the struggling empire but a look at other empires in history may shed some light on the matter.
22 December 2020
Multicultural Australia?
Just what do we mean by multicultural? Who is part of multicultural Australia and who is not?
1 December 2020
The elephant and the mouse
China is much more powerful than Australia and no amount of criticism from us will change this. In a fight with China, we must lose. Calm analysis must replace jingoistic hot air. Why are they really attacking us and what can we do about it now?
23 November 2020
Can we get out of Afghanistan?
The revelation of war crimes by Australian soldiers has brought our focus on to Afghanistan, why we are there and why the special forces did what some of them did there. If the US pulls out so will we but, if not, we face difficult choices. We must wait and see what President Biden will do when he finally gets into the White House.
4 October 2020
Foreign Minister's Tokyo claims Australia's contribution to disinformation?
Australias Foreign Minister has announced she will travel to Tokyo to meet with other members of the Quad (the US, Japan and India) to jointly counter disinformation campaigns by authoritarian states and to ensure supplies of minerals and technology. Does this mean it is only authoritarian states that are not allowed to engage in disinformation? Surely Donald Trump would not engage in disinformation!
11 August 2020
The Philippine War, the American saviour syndrome and the manifest destiny. (REPOSTED from February 9, 2018)
The American war against the Philippine Republic which began in 1898 and its subsequent colonisation of the Philippines teaches us many things about perennial American beliefs and actions. The concept that the US is saving somebody from something is a constant in American foreign policy.
5 August 2020
Where do we go from here after Trump?
The visit to Washington of the two Australian ministers is mildly encouraging but some important questions remain. Why did they go and why did they say what they said? What next? And in the longer term what degree of control will Australia have over the world we inhabit?
28 July 2020
Emperor Trumpus Maximus and his most loyal vassal, Terra Australis
Let us never forget that Emperor Trumpus Maximus is divine and so demands obedience from all of you as well as from our vassal states.
14 July 2020
Double standards are a feature of Australian foreign policy. We condemn China for doing what we and other countries do.
Australia should not assume that democracy is the one true political faith that everyone in the world wants. We have the right to uphold our beliefs but others have the same right.
1 July 2020
Cyber hacks, media hacks and political hacks.
Greatly increased defence spending plus proposed cyber capability tie us more to the USA and clearly will be seen by China as unfriendly. Can we rely on a dysfunctional USA and do we really understand Chinese motives and the level of threat from it?
3 June 2020
CAVAN HOGUE. How should Morrison respond to Trump's invitation?
President Trump wants to invite Australia to attend the forthcoming G7 meeting as a guest along with Russia, Japan, South Korea and India. Mr Morrison has said he will consider a reply.
24 May 2020
CAVAN HOGUE. Entangling Alliances?
Should Australia take more notice of Charles de Gaulle than Donald Trump? What is the value of an alliance?
17 May 2020
CAVAN HOGUE. Science, not politics, must drive an independent and comprehensive Coronavirus inquiry
The whole question of lessons to be learned to help prepare for future pandemics is caught up in international politics and it will be hard for science to defeat politics. We need to examine who handled it well and who not, but this will point the finger at some countries which prefer to do the finger pointing.
6 May 2020
CAVAN HOGUE: Double standards in dealing with China and USA
Why do our government and media apply different standards and rules to China and the USA? We are usually told it is because we share values with the US but not with China. Also, China is aggressive and the US is a democracy which respects universal human rights and the rules based international order.
23 April 2020
CAVAN HOGUE. Kishore Mahbubani on China and the US
In a most interesting article in The Economist, Kishore Mahbubani argues that the post-COVIC-19 world will be characterized by an accelerated shift in power from the West to East Asia.
7 April 2020
CAVAN HOGUE. What will a post-COVID-19 world mean for Australia?
There is much speculation about what the post-COVID-19 world will look like but we do not have answers and can only ask questions at this stage.
14 January 2020
CAVAN HOGUE. More blessed to give than to receive? Repost from 18.12 2017
Provoking China to score cheap political points domestically does not advance Australian interests. While most Australians would prefer the US domestic political model to the Chinese, we are not going to change the Chinese system and so must learn to live with it. Complaints about Chinese attempts to influence Australian attitudes are naive.
8 January 2020
CAVAN HOGUE - The Trumpet shall sound, And we shall be razed!
Australia's response to US Trumpeting in Iraq has been muted and said nothing about whether we agree in principle that it is acceptable to assassinate foreign nationals in other countries. Russia in Britain?
20 November 2019
CAVAN HOGUE.Hong Kong - Students and police
The current situation is Hong Kong is depressing as both police and protesters blame the other and both engage in violence. There is no sign of reconciliation and the future looks bleak whatever happens. Recession is serious. This report is from a long time resident of Hong Kong who works in universities but prefers not to be identified. It is not safe to stand out in either direction. University staff have to teach on line because universities are closed which makes more work but it is still possible to keep in touch with students - even with those holed up...
4 November 2019
CAVAN HOGUE: Why is Mr Dutton afraid of Australian children?
The Australian women and children facing danger in Syria are not being brought home because it cant be done or because they would be a threat to Australia but because of cheap domestic politics. As H.L. Mencken observed: The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. Our SAS could do the job and the expensive white elephant on Christmas Island could keep them and us safe while they are processed.
29 September 2019
CAVAN HOGUE. What is new about drones?
The attack on Saudi oil wells has given rise to a debate about the effectiveness of drones in warfare. Some have argued that this heralds a whole new world in warfare while others see it as just another example of the age old leap frogging between new attack weapons and the development of new defence against them. A similar debate exists in the case of cyber warfare.
23 July 2019
CAVAN HOGUE. Where is Hong Kong going?
Current protests, including violence, present difficult decisions for the PRC and for Xi Jin Ping. The Hong Kong Government does not seem to be able to control things so what will Beijing do? No option provides a simple solution.
11 July 2019
CAVAN HOGUE. Canada, Australia and the USA
Canada tries to differentiate itself from the USA but because of its proximity and similarities this is not easy. Australia has the opposite problem: we try to find similarities. Canadas geography makes it easier for it to defy requests to get involved in US wars but Australia has the opposite problem. We have to shout to be heard which is why we get involved in wars we should keep out of and votes we should change. But the world is changing and we have not kept up with the changes.
26 May 2019
CAVAN HOGUE. Business as Usual in the World.
Australia's vote in the UN on the Diego Garcia issue suggests there will be no change in our Government's approach to foreign policy.
16 May 2019
CAVAN HOGUE. President or Prime Minister?
The current political cult of personality obscures the fact that Australian prime ministers are not American presidents. The Prime Minister told voters that they had a clear choice between him and Bill Shorten. No they don't Scomo! They have a choice between two parties and cabinets that take decisions.
30 April 2019
CAVAN HOGUE. The panda versus the grizzly bear.
Our actions and public statements on Huawei and other Chinese investments clearly identify China as a potential threat which logically makes it an enemy. We do not apply the same standards to other countries which have the same technical capability. The US has been pressuring other countries to follow its lead in banning Huawei. How does American pressure differ from Chinese pressure? Our answer presumably would be that one is an ally and the other is a potential threat? This sends a clear message to China which so far has had a limited effect on our trade and other relations...
3 April 2019
CAVAN HOGUE. Ukraine, clowns and comedians.
It looks very much like Ukraine will elect a TV comedian with no political experience as president. Since Australia is ruled by clowns at the moment we are hardly in a position to criticise!
10 March 2019
CAVAN HOGUE. What does Kim Jong Un really want?
There has been much speculation about what Kim wants and what happened at the summit. When dealing with characters like Trump and Bolton anything is possible but Kim is much more focussed and any consideration of current events should never lose sight of the fundamentals that underlie anything Kim does. He wants to stay in power but is not interested in promoting any ideology to any other country. His foreign policy is therefore essentially defensive. DPRK criminal activity abroad is essentially to make money or knock off people who might be a domestic threat. Threats to other countries are a...