Cavan Hogue

Cavan Hogue is a former diplomat who has worked in Asia, Europe and the Americas as well as at the UN. He was Australian Ambassador to USSR and Russia, dually accredited to Ukraine. He also worked at ANU and Macquarie universities.

Cavan's recent articles

CAVAN HOGUE. Comment on Hugh White's response to Paul Dibb on ANZUS and Taiwan.

Hugh White has made an effective rebuttal of Paul Dibb's claim that we should join the US if China takes military action against Taiwan. It is important to stress that ANZUS does not require us to join with the USA in defending Taiwan.

CAVAN HOGUE. Brazil - somebody down there loves Donald.

The newly elected Brazilian President, Jair Bolsonaro, is a right wing, socially conservative former army officer who is a fan of Donald Trump and is following many of his foreign policy adventures like pulling out of the Paris Climate accords and moving his embassy to Jerusalem. John Bolton is anxious to forge close military ties with Brazil. Bolsonaro has taken measures to replace indigenous rights by commercial agriculture and mining in the Amazon basin which poses a threat to both the people and the environment. It's nice to have friends in high places.

CAVAN HOGUE. Democracy in Venezuela?

Much of the current situation arises from internal conflicts and policies but US policy has nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with US commercial, ideological and strategic interests. Foreign support for Maduro or Guaid is based on predictable ideological and national interest lines. Domestically the military supports Maduro against widespread unrest and public demonstrations but how long this can last is a moot question. All parties call for peaceful solutions although the US has reserved its options. I look at some of the complexities.

CAVAN and ALEX HOGUE. Cyber legislation the oldest trick in the book.

The proposed legislation on cyber powers raises some questions that need to be answered. The debate has been rhetorical and has not addressed the technical or legal aspects of the legislation in any detail. Has the implementation been thought through by all concerned? We dont have all the answers but wonder if the Government does either. The political debate is on the level of kindergarten abuse instead of dispassionate discussion of the issues. There are serious problems in implementing the legislation and it may well fail because it is impractical.

CAVAN HOGUE. Storms in the Sea of Azov.

The recent clash between Russia and Ukraine is about access to the Sea of Azov especially arising from the Russian bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland. Russian and Ukrainian claims and explanations are entirely predictable as is NATO's condemnation of Russia. The Russians claim that it is all the fault of Ukraine for illegally entering Russian territorial waters while Ukraine says Russia is to blame and that it is yet another example of Russian aggression against Ukraine. The legal position is disputed and somewhat murky but Russia is clearly in breach of a 2003 agreement on the Sea of...

CAVAN HOGUE. Democracy and the Future.

Recent polls have reported that roughly half of young Australians do not think democracy is the best form of government. There have been other expressions of concern in the media about the state of democracy in Australia and indeed the world. This reflects a widespread dissatisfaction with Australian politics and politicians. Democracy is a faith like any other and is not the end process of some kind of Darwinian inevitability. If we want to convert others to our views on democracy and human rights we need to do a better job of it and perhaps show more respect for the...

CAVAN HOGUE. Where the bloody Hell are You?

Our current Prime Minister loves P R slogans and seems to believe that they are a satisfactory alternative to an understanding of a world that does not eat meat pies. To his credit, however, he has publicly criticised US trade policy which is at least standing up for Australian interests as he boasts he does. The same cannot be said for the Jerusalem fiasco. He is a member of the Pentecostal church which believes that Jesus will return in Jerusalem so we must support Israel. As he faces elections next year that is probably all that will save him.

CAVAN HOGUE. Do we really need an American Ambassador? Or will Rupert Murdoch do?

Do we really need an American ambassador? Ambassadors are paid to represent their own country, not ours, so what's in it for us? Do we really need an imperial legate to keep us in line when we never get out of line? Our media relies on American sources for its news and Rupert Murdoch makes sure we get the right message. We may expect increasing pressure to join in putting pressure on China to do what the US wants it to do but an ambassador is not really needed for that. We can salve our wounded pride with the thought...

CAVAN HOGUE. The Gospel according to St Donald.

It is hard to know whether to laugh or cry at Trump's speech to the UNGA which saw him laughed at. He was clearly shocked that the unwashed masses didn't understand that patriotism was superior to globalism whatever Dr Johnson might say about patriotism. And how could they fail to appreciate the achievements of the Messiah? And the Trumpet shall sound, and we shall be raised! He may be despised and rejected of the rest of the world but they love him in the rust belt. And anyway we are told the whole world loves a clown, right? Perhaps the...

CAVAN HOGUE. Putin, Trump. Morals and Australia

Trump has shown little political savvy and even less powers of analysis. However, it is hard to see the USA as having the moral high ground to justify the hysterical moral outrage generated by Trump's incompetence when it has done exactly the same thing many times in many places. Syria is a case of double standards. Great powers always promote their own interests irrespective of their domestic arrangements. Americans don't care about MH17 because lots of Americans were not involved so Trump was not going to raise that with Putin if he was even aware of it. Australia would...

CAVAN HOGUE. Digger mates in Singapore?

We have two countries and individuals with a well established record of breaking treaties, agreements and promises who tell us they have established a relationship of trust. How reassuring! At least for the time being they have stopped threatening and that is a good thing but no clear definition emerged of exactly what is meant by denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. No doubt further talks will take place and the optimist in me says this gives hope but the pessimist says don't start counting chickens. There are many traps and problems to be solved. While we don't know what Kim...

CAVAN HOGUE. Korea: the Hermit Kingdom rises again?

The peace negotiations on the Korean Peninsula remain fragile and neither the USA or the DPRK trusts the other. Neither side has been specific about what they will accept and the question remains what it has always been. What does Kim want in return for what he is willing to give and what is Trump willing to give for what he wants? Trumps threat to pull out of the meeting and Kim's equally bellicose talk of war don't help matters but neither is likely to be stupid enough to put their nukes where their mouth is. The role of China...

CAVAN HOGUE. Malaysia's first new government in six decades revels in a shocking victor.

The surprising Malaysian election results show yet again that we shouldnt put faith in polls and pundits. Despite serious gerrymandering and other bits of nastiness the Barisan Nasional lost the election.The return of Dr Mahathir raises questions about the future. He has promised to hand over to Anwar Ibrahim but hasnt said when. Najib looks like he is in trouble and may be charged with corrupt practices.

CAVAN HOGUE. What rules based order?

Australia proclaims the importance of a rules based international order but it is not at all clear what those rules are, let alone who observes them and who doesn't. Even where there is agreement on what the rule is countries interpret it to suit their interests. There are no countries in a position to cast the first stone. International agreements might reasonably be seen as rule setting but there are few such bodies where every country in the world has signed up and many important ones have not been accepted by one or more of the major world powers. I...

Morals, slogans and PR hype

Australian politicians and media have been beating their hairy chests accusing and warning China and Russia over their failings. One is reminded of the famous thundering headline in The Launceston Examiner 'We warn the Tzar of Russia' . The question is what is the motive in all of this? Do they really hope to influence these countries or is to please the US? Perhaps the more likely explanation is that it is designed to impress Australian voters? Australia has morphed from the post Vietnam distrust of militarism to almost a warrior cult so they may hope their bellicose bombast will...

CAVAN HOGUE. Russia and Australia: The Empire strikes back?

Russia is the prime suspect in the poisoning but cannot be convicted on the basis of the circumstantial evidence before we get the report of the independent commission. But this article is concerned about what this exercise tells us about Australian priorities. We have joined 28 NATO countries to put sanctions on Russia and ignored the165 countries that did not. We made no attempt to discuss our action with our Asian friends. Where do our priorities lie? Russia is a Pacific power so might it not have been a good idea to discuss things with some Asian powers?

CAVAN HOGUE. What Australian interests are involved in the Skripal poisoning?

By signing up to sanctions against Russia along with 22 European and North American countries Australia has made it very clear to the 100 countries that did not sign up where we think we belong. We seem to be telling our Asian neighbours that Dr Mahathir was right to say that Australia is a European outpost in Asia. We prefer NATO to ASEAN? NATO has rushed to judgement without waiting for all the information to come in. Certainly, Russia has to be the prime suspect but there are many unanswered questions about the whole matter. Putin is capable of ordering...

CAVAN HOGUE. Reflections on the ASEAN-Australian Summit.

The ASEAN-Australian summit provided an opportunity for Australia to get close to countries and leaders important to us and to make a public statement to that effect. The media coverage in Australia tended to focus on human rights in Cambodia and Myanmar which was not what ASEAN was here to discuss. However, Prime Minister Najib made an interesting comment about the potential for ISIS to exploit the Rohingya crisis. Discussion on Australia joining ASEAN was mostly about whether ASEAN wanted us but largely ignored whether Australia was in a position to join an organisation that would require it to oppose...

CAVAN HOGUE. Report from the Quotidie Praeco Romanum on the visit of the vassal chieftain Flexus Taurus to the Imperial Capital.

Emperor Trumpus Augustus graciously received in audience today a barbarian chieftain named Flexus Taurus representing the vassal province of Terra Australis. Flexus Taurus assured the Emperor that Rome had no more loyal vassal than Terra Australis whose inhabitants were devoted to all aspects of Roman civilisation.

The Philippine War and the Saviour syndrome

The American war against the Philippine Republic which began in 1898 and its subsequent colonisation of the Philippines teaches us many things about perennial American beliefs and actions. The concept that the US is saving somebody from something is a constant in American foreign policy. Some even believe they saved Europe from Hitler! We need to examine carefully the clash between manifest destiny and isolationism but mostly to look at the influence of the genuine belief amongst most Americans that they have a duty to save the less fortunate from something and bring them to accept truth, justice and the...

CAVAN HOGUE. White man'a media- A REPOST from May 29 2017

That the Australian media gives us saturation coverage of Europe but much less on Asia is obvious but the question is why? Have they done market research which shows this is what the public wants or does it stem from their own beliefs and prejudices? Is this really what most Australians want? Possibly it may be.

CAVAN HOGUE. The ambassadorial minnow and the whale.

Australian angst about the failure of the US to send an ambassador to Australia reflects the nature of our relationship. Tim Fischer is right to see it as an insult but it should not surprise us.

CAVAN HOGUE. Let those who are without sin cast the first stone. A REPOST

The USA is a complex place with its vices, virtues and differences. Despite its noble ideals and democratic institutions, it has a long history of aggression and of overthrowing democracies in the pursuit of American commercial or strategic interests. It does not have the moral high ground and its lectures to other countries can be counter-productive. It does not observe the rules it demands from others.. This does not make it any worse than other countries but no better either. Australia should judge it by the same standards that we apply to other counties. We cannot trust Chinese and Russian...

CAVAN HOGUE. More blessed to give than to receive?

Provoking China to score cheap political points domestically does not advance Australian interests. While most Australians would prefer the US domestic political model to the Chinese, we are not going to change the Chinese system and so must learn to live with it. Complaints about Chinese attempts to influence Australian attitudes are naive. All countries, including Australia, try to influence the policies of others and China is no different. Our American ally has a long history of influencing other countries clandestinely and of overthrowing democratic governments that didn't suit its interests. Nobody is in a position to cast the first...

CAVAN HOGUE. The White Paper - a curate's egg?

There is much to be commended in the Government's White Paper but there are some assumptions which need to be questioned. The focus on Asia is welcome and most of the analysis of our changing world is good, in particular the recognition that the balance between China and the USA has been changing. The Prime Minister's claim that we will be guided by Australian interests is on the surface timely but is open to interpretation. The major weakness in the paper is the way it clings to the US as the unshakeable bedrock of our security while at the same...

CAVAN HOGUE. Mindanao and terrorism.

The situation in Mindanao is complicated by historical, ethnic, religious, criminal and social factors that are not easily unravelled. The introduction of Saudi Wahabism and foreign fighters complicates the mix even further. Separatism is not new but the arrival of foreign fighters which led to the taking of Marawi is a new factor. The Philippine Army has been battling separatists for many years but not forces stiffened by foreign fighters and weapons.. There is no simple solution and we may question what Western countries like Australia and the USA have to offer.

CAVAN HOGUE. Our news media need less hysteria and more history

Australian reporting on international affairs leaves much to be desired as recent comments on the Philippines and Russia show. While the situation in Mindanao must be taken seriously, it is important to understand that only 20% of the inhabitants are Moslems and that most of the island is inhabited by Christian migrants. This doesn't seem to be understood by some commentators. The threat is not to the island but to the south. Russia also gets superficial treatment which tends to descend into a goodies and baddies approach instead of a balanced one.

CAVAN HOGUE. Sanctions and virtue.

Sanctions are a form of force but seem to be the only answer Western countries can come up with. There is no evidence that they are effective, probably because it is not the decision-makers who suffer from them. Pressure on China to do more does not take account of Chinese interests. China wants a buffer but not an out of control nuclear state in the DPRK. Kim is not suicidal but seems to understand the restrictions on outsiders better than some of them do. Negotiations seem like the only approach that would give Kim what he wants and lead to...

CAVAN HOGUE. Crisis In Korea: can the irresistible force and the immovable object co-exist?

The launch of an ICBM by the DPRK may yet bring a positive result if it gets China, Russia and the USA all working together to find a solution involving carrot and stick. Any solution will need to make the DPRK feel secure form foreign attack and its neighbours secure from DPRK attack which means negotiations that the US has so far refused. However, the kind of wider peace treaty idea put forward by Russia and China could work; it is hard to see any other practical solution.. Kim Jong Un is not, as some claim, inconsistent but knows exactly...

CAVAN HOGUE. We always want an outside protector

The recent Lowy poll that showed a decrease in support for Trump but not for the alliance should not come as a surprise. It is consistent with Australia's long standing desire for a protector. We should not be nave about China but we do tend to look at the USA through rose-coloured glasses. Our future is uncertain.

CAVAN HOGUE. Our white mans media.

For our media, the UK and the US are more or less down town.

CAVAN HOGUE. Trump and the Wahhabis

President Trumps visit to Saudi Arabia does not sit well with a demand to fight the Wahhabi inspired terrorists but support for a dictatorship that suits American commercial and strategic interests is a long standing US practice. We may wonder whether getting involved in religious disputes is a good idea.

CAVAN HOGUE. Why do we hate President Assad of Syria?

The US opposes Assad because he is not their son of a bitch and so supports a motley bag of groups with little in common who are probably no better than Assad. The elimination of ISIS is certainly desirable but it will not solve the mess that is the Middle East. Australia trots along behind the US because of the insurance policy argument.

CAVAN HOGUE. Ukraine a pox on both your houses?

A solution to the fighting in Ukraine will require agreement and cooperation by three parties without undue interference from outsiders. The three parties are the Russian Government, the Ukrainian Government and the Eastern Ukrainian rebels. The outsiders are NATO and the USA. Australia is not a player.

CAVAN HOGUE. Australia did say no to the US on Vietnam in 1954.

Australia's destiny was not so completely wrapped up with the United States as to support them in action which Australia regarded as wrong. (R.G.Casey)

CAVAN HOGUE. Should we Jump with Trump on Russia?

Australia has followed the hardline advocates in the US in attributing evil actions now and in the future to Russia and Putin in particular. How accurate is this view? One of the few sensible things Trump is doing is advocating better relations with Russia which can only contribute to a reduction in international tension however much we may dislike his regime and and whatever Trump's motives. Do we now follow Trump or his opponents on this? Australia is not a player despite being a camp follower of NATO so perhaps the less we say the better. So far Mr...

CAVAN HOGUE. New series: We can say 'no' to the Americans?

Of all American allies Australia is the most subservient. A problem is that we have harped on the loyal little ally theme to the Americans so much that they take us for granted but we have not always toed the line. Admittedly, Gough Whitlams' relative independence caused ructions in Washington but there were special circumstances. In that case, the CIA apparently considered action but nothing was done.

CAVAN HOGUE. Has the alliance got us into more trouble than it has got us out of? Quo vadis series.

Quo vadis - Australian foreign policy and ANZUS. Summary.Trump does give us an opportunity to do things we should have done long ago.

CAVAN HOGUE. US election.

It looks like a Trump victory with a Republican Congress, albeit one which contains Republicans who don't like Trump. But it is far too early to speculate sensibly on what President Trump will actually do. There are more questions than answers. The problem is that we really don't know what Trump will do and that will remain the case for some time. What lies below the hot air? Will he listen to wiser counsels? Julie Bishop has made a somewhat over-optimistic comment about how the basics of the alliance will not be affected - but that we will work...

CAVAN HOGUE. Duterte - China and the US.

Attitudes to the USA have varied in the Philippines since they first came in contact in 1898 when the Americans invaded the Philippines and spent 1898 to 1904 in a brutal colonial war against the Philippine Republic under President Emilio Aguinaldo. Needless to say, Americans were widely hated for depriving the Filipinos of their freedom and many never really forgave them.

CAVAN HOGUE. Handing over our Defence to a foreign country.

The Government has refused to allow a Chinese firm to invest in electricity because it is seen as a threat to our security but it has no difficulty in handing over our defence to a foreign country. Australian defence forces are so integrated with the US that it is hard to see how we can operate independently. Of course the USA is an ally and a friend but it is naive to imagine that the US would ever put Australian interests before American ones. It never has and it would be mad to do so. We, however, have got involved...

CAVAN HOGUE. Australian Foreign Policy. (Repost from Policy Series)

Summary. Australian Foreign Policy is dominated by fear, defence issues, the American Alliance and the search for votes in marginal electorates. We talk about the importance of Asia but instinctively cleave to Europe and North America who are said to share our values but don't always do so. We need to look beyond the next election and question some of our basic assumptions like whether the American Alliance gets us into more trouble than it gets us out of. We should also not get involved in peripheral issues which may serve American interests but have nothing to do with...

CAVAN HOGUE. NATO searches for role - with the help of Julie Bishop!

NATO was created to counter the Soviet Union but when the Soviet Union disappeared NATO did not follow suit so new enemies were required. Afghanistan was promoted by the USA because it harboured terrorists who attacked the USA. When the Taliban fought the Soviet Union the US provided weapons and support but the US now supported those opposed to the Taliban in a civil war. NATO plus Australia became involved in a country far from its heartland. Public rhetoric about moral factors clearly had nothing to do with it.

CAVAN HOGUE. Brexit and Russia.

There has been some speculation about how Brexit will affect Russia. Probably not a lot politically but we can only speculate about the economic effects. No doubt the European Community will spend the next few years contemplating its navel and so be less focused on relations with Russia. The Europeans will be even less interested in Ukraine and this could be to Russia's advantage but it could have a negative impact if this confusion leads to a stalling of efforts to reach a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian civil war. Russia would like a solution to be found so long...

CAVAN HOGUE. Australia and its relationships with US and China.

According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the US Studies Centre at Sydney University has produced a study which showed that 8 out of 10 Australians were only mildly concerned about the fact that, as they saw it, China already dominated Asia and they did not think China would go to war with the USA. They thought that the USA had peaked and was on the way out. This situation did not greatly concern them and their attitude was described as neutral. James Brown of the Centre described these attitudes as naive and said that Australians did not understand the importance...

Cavan Hogue. Saudi Arabia involvement in 9/11 attack!

The United States has long supported one of the most repressive regimes in the world. It invaded Iraq where women were able to do anything men could (which wasn't much admittedly) but not Saudi Arabia where women are kept in subjection. It also ignored the fact that Saudi Arabia is home of the Wahabi brand of puritanical Islam that is the ideological inspiration for the Taliban and other extremist groups. Australia has trotted faithfully behind. The New York Times and the US Congress now claim that at least some parts of the Saudi ruling clique were involved in the 9/11...

Cavan Hogue. Malcolm Turnbull, COAG and media confusion.

Turnbull knew what he was doing. The media has turned on Malcolm Turnbull who is accused of ignorance. Media views seem to change even more often than political promises. However,surely the PM knew why he called the meeting with the states. He knew they would reject it which is what he wanted them to do. He now claims the moral high ground in denying their requests for money. Opinions will differ on whether this was a good decision but only time will tell if it worked -whatever the media seesaw comes up with next. Politics has always been a rough...

Cavan Hogue. The Defence White Paper and the China threat.

In a paper distributed by the ANU East Asia Forum, Professor Hugh White has pointed out that the Defence White Paper makes two invalid assumptions: the post-Cold War US-led international order will be maintained and that it must be. He is right on both counts and I will not repeat his views here except to say I agree with them. The so-called rules based order is based on Western concepts and dominated by Western countries. Many other countries simply don't accept the rules. Even some UN rules, including those we would like to keep, are open to question by...

Cavan Hogue. Our Eurocentric media.

In January 2015, 12 people were killed in a terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo in Paris. The Australian media went into overdrive and gave saturation coverage for some days. In January 2016, 32 people were killed and 66 wounded in a terrorist attack in the northern Cameroun town of Bodo. There was no significant coverage of the Reuters report about this in the Australian media. Boko Haram has killed more people in more countries than its brothers in arms al Qaeda have killed in Europe. The day before the November 2015 attack in Paris that killed over 100 people...

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