Cavan Hogue

Cavan Hogue is a former diplomat who has worked in Asia, Europe and the Americas as well as at the UN. He was Australian Ambassador to USSR and Russia, dually accredited to Ukraine. He also worked at ANU and Macquarie universities.

Cavan's recent articles

Cavan Hogue. Mr Turnbull goes to Washington.

Despite one welcome outburst of independence by refusing a request for more troops on the ground in the Middle East and a generally less sycophantic approach than most of his predecessors,the Prime Minister's visit to Washington had all the usual hallmarks of a client presenting tribute to the Emperor. The fact that Australian and American comentators felt the need to sound surprised at the refusal of a US request is instructive. The stress on shared values is interesting. Certainly we share many values with many Americans but do we endorse their gun culture? Do we share the values of Trump...

Cavan Hogue. Shia vs Sunni in Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia's execution of a Shia cleric who criticised its policies has exacerbated the split between Shia and Sunni Nations. Politics and religion have come together in a way that will be familiar to anyone who knows Northern Ireland. Sunni Saudi Arabia is the home of the deviant puritanical Wahabi sect which is rejected by most Muslims but provides the theological underpinning for al Qaeda and ISIS. It is also a US ally and therefore an Australian ally. So we now have the Shia nations supported by Russia and the Sunni nations supported by the US and its Western allies...

Cavan Hogue. Turkey shoots down Russian aircraft.

Russia supports the (Shia) Assad regime backed by Iran and others while Turkey supports the Sunni backed bySaudi Arabia, the USA and others. The Turks claim the Shia are terrorists while Russia supports them as allies of the Shia, (i.e. Assad) who support Russian strategic interests.. This is an oversimplified picture but it is relevant to the shooting down of a Russian fighter. The Turks claims it was in Turkish airspace which the Russians deny. Turkey probably overreacted but it is perfectly possible that Russians were attacking anti-Assad forces within Turkey or strayed over the border in pursuit of such...

Cavan Hogue. The Paris attacks.

The Paris attacks are yet another piece of savagery by young alienated Muslims but the question we need to ask is what is the real cause? Should we be searching the Koran or should we be looking at what motivates young idealists to die for a cause and why are these ones doing it? We may not like their cause and we may condemn their cruelty but that is not the point. Should we perhaps be looking at the Red Guards, the IRA, the Nazis, the Khmer Rouge the Holy Inquisition, the young Europeans who fought for the Spanish Republic...

Cavan Hogue. Russian airliner and ISIS.

The almost gleeful attacks by columnists and cartoonists on Vladimir Putin when the Russian plane went down were in very bad taste. The difference between this and MH17 is clear. MH17 was shot down by accident in Ukrainian territory probably by rebels who thought they were shooting down a warplane from Kiev. It was not a deliberate act by Russians, let alone ordered by Putin. (Russia could however be criticised for not putting more pressure on those who control the crash site to cooperate with the investigators - most likely they know what happened and don't want to admit it.)...

Cavan Hogue. MH17

The Dutch led report doesn't really tell us anything much we couldn't already work out but it does highlight some valid points. That the missile was Russian is hardly news but the report does give us the make, However, while theoretically this might help trace who bought it, missiles have moved around so much that all parties can disclaim ownership and in any case the Russians are certainly capable of faking it. But since all three parties involved have Russian missiles this is not a smoking gun and the report makes it clear that both Russia and Ukraine have this...

Cavan Hogue. Russia in Syria and Australian implications.

What are Australia's objectives in the Middle East imbroglio? The simple answer is that it is about the American Alliance. We see ourselves as part of a global alliance led by the USA and generally supported by European powers: countries that share our values. We are there because they are. Therefore the fact that our military presence makes no difference to the situation in Syria or in defeating ISIS is not really relevant. Nor is it relevant that our military presence does nothing to discourage idealistic young Australians from joining ISIS and may even encourage them. Neither is it relevant...

Cavan Hogue. Russian and Chinese naval exercises.

From August 20-28 Russia and China will conduct a large scale naval exercise in the Russian Far East and the Sea of Japan. Russia will send 20 ships and China seven plus11 aircraft. They will practice air defence and anti-submarine drills as well as a beach landing. Both countries are publicly beating up their defence ties as part of a closer relationship. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jin Ping have met and made appropriate noises about their growing friendship. Clearly both countries see advantage in closer relations as they face criticism from the USA and some other countries. We sometimes forget...

Cavan Hogue. When elephants fight, kangaroos can be trampled.

Current Affairs The growing tension in the South China Sea poses a number of problems for Australia. We want to ensure that our access through these important waterway and air routes are not impeded but we want to do so without appearing to take sides in a confrontation between China and the USA. We also need to take into account the concerns of other regional countries which are important to us. We should not lose sight of China's growing assertiveness nor deny that it can act aggressively but nor should we kid ourselves that the US is very different...

Cavan Hogue. Australian Foreign Policy

Fairness, Opportunity and Security Policy series edited by Michael Keating and John Menadue Summary. Australian Foreign Policy is dominated by fear, defence issues, the American Alliance and the search for votes in marginal electorates. We talk about the importance of Asia but instinctively cleave to Europe and North America who are said to share our values but don't always do so. We need to look beyond the next election and question some of our basic assumptions like whether the American Alliance gets us into more trouble than it gets us out of. We should also not get involved in...

Cavan Hogue. Australia will not be safer.

Australia's upping the ante in Iraq is a recipe for disaster. It is hard to see anything positive coming out of it. Mr. Abbott said the request came from the Iraqi Government and the USA. As in the past, the request from the USA was almost certainly what it is all about plus the domestic need to show how hairy his chest is. Did the Americans have to lean on Iraq to invite us this time as well? As Vietnam showed, the trainers will end up as combat troops and if the Americans ask for more we...

Cavan Hogue. Petroshenko visit.

President Petroshenko should be received courteously and his visit should be used to seek further trade with Ukraine. There is no reason to avoid cordial relations with Ukraine but our Government is going a lot further than that. Ukraine is a distant European country where we have limited interests. The Prime Minister appears to be using it as an excuse to attack Russia. Mr Abbott was a successful Leader of the Opposition but he is finding that building is a lot harder than demolition. President Putin provides an enemy on whom he can exercise his attack dog skills and...

Cavan Hogue. Russia and the G20

Contrary to some media reports the G20 did not mention Russia in any of its documents and criticism came only from the West. Nothing happened which is likely to change Russian attitudes or actions. The Russia bashing by Australian politicians and media is not likely to worry Russia and the criticism by Western nations is not having any effect either. It is worth noting that claims about world criticism of Russia is in fact criticism by Europe and North America with Australia trotting along faithfully behind or indeed jumping out in front.. Countries in our region have not joined...

Cavan Hogue. The new Vietnam.

We seem to be rushing forward to the past in the Middle East and it looks increasingly like a rerun of Vietnam which began with a request from the Saigon Government (that we had to ask for), initial popular support for intervention against the Communist bogey, followed by disillusionment and defeat. A domestic political asset became a liability, All the talk about evil skirts around the fact that however demented ISIL may be they are attracting young idealists to their ranks. Why? They are able to draw on longstanding distrust of Christian Europe and its American offshoots which goes...

Cavan Hogue. Stick versus Carrot in Ukraine?

A major problem with the situation in Ukraine is that you can't believe anything anyone says because they all have their political agendas to push and don't hesitate to lie. Crimea, Odessa and the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine have Russian majorities who would produce a majority for being part of Russia in any free and fair plebiscite. So the issue is one of self-determination versus territorial integrity. There is also the question of Russian minorities elsewhere but only where they occupy a definable territorial area. Russia wants friendly states around it and Putin has pushed a highly...

Cavan Hogue. Russia boycott.

Anyone with any knowledge of Russia could have told the Prime Minister that his gratuitous public and personal attacks on Mr Putin and on Russia in general would lead to retaliation. Russia was left with no other option except humiliation and Russians are too proud and too sensitive to accept that. So the Australian Government must have known that banning of our exports was the most probable Russian response and therefore prepared contingency plans to deal with this event. So why all the panic now? Why has the National Party not protected the interests of its constituents simply so Mr...

Cavan Hogue. The hype of D-Day

The hype about the Normandy Landings on D-Day reflect a deep seated prejudice in the Australian press, public and politicians. Tony Abbot wants to use our minimal contribution to milk the occasion so he can be seen amongst the great and powerful and this is understandable but the claim by Abbott and our media that D-Day was the turning point in the European theatre is nonsense.l The pivotal battles were Kursk and Stalingrad and it was the Russians who took Berlin thus ending the war in Europe - not the Western allies.Most German and allied casualties took place on the...

Gavan Hogue. Quo Vadis Thailand?

Thaksin undoubtedly engaged in some corrupt activities. Whether he was more corrupt than the other mob is hard to say but he did get the numbers by actually doing something for the poor peasants especially in the depressed areas of the north and northeast. His critics accuse him of pork barreling but that is a well established democratic procedure. Whatever his motives, he did actually do something to improve the lives of the poor and they voted for him in droves. The Bangkok establishment takes the view that democracy is mob rule and the unwashed masses really need their...

Cavan Hogue. Russia and the West.

The USA and NATO seem to see their relationship with Russia as one of goodies and baddies. This is nave and their hairy chested approach is not helpful. This paper looks at the realities of Russian attitudes to the outside world. Many foreigners write off Vladimir Putin as a fascist, a communist throwback, a brutal dictator and so on. There can be no doubt that he is strongly authoritarian and doesnt suffer opponents gladly but he is not Stalin. He was elected and there are opposition parties. Many Russians dislike him and oppose what he stands for but his appeal...

Cavan Hogue. Russia, Ukraine and Crimea.

Western rhetoric about the situation in Ukraine shows little understanding of the realities of Russia and Ukraine. If Western countries want a new cold war they are going the right way about it. It is a complex problem which cannot be solved by superficial noises about democracy and territorial integrity. Crimea is a special case which should be separated from the more general conflict. Crimea was always Russian until Khrushchev put it into the Ukrainian SSR which didnt matter because everything at that time was controlled from Moscow anyway. However, after the break-up, a whole lot of people who...

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