Geoff Miller

Geoff Miller is a former diplomat and government official. He was Director-General, Office of National Assessments, deputy secretary, Department of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador to Japan and the Republic of Korea, and High Commissioner to New Zealand.

Geoff's recent articles

GEOFF MILLER. Korea: a comprehensive and step-by-step solution?

That is the phrase that senior South Korean officials are using for what they hope to see resulting from coming summits, which they now envisage as involving, after the North Korea-US meeting, a tri-partite summit between the two Koreas and the US, in turn to be followed by a four-party summit of those three plus China. But wheres Japan? And do we really expect North Korea to give up its nuclear missiles, acquired at such a cost in resources? If so, in return for what benefits and assurances? And what would it ask the US to do in the cause...

GEOFF MILLER. The ASEAN meeting in Sydney and the Quad same same but different.

Singapore and Australia are having to deal with the same set of problems and relationships as the strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific changes. Singapore isnt a contender for an expanded Quad but, as next years Chairman of ASEAN, it will have an important role to play in one of the Turnbull Governments major foreign policy initiatives, the ASEAN-Australia Summit to be held in Sydney March 17-18. A REPOST

Trump and Turnbull must recognise that China is not going away

Foreshadowed warnings by American spokesmen to the Prime Minister and his party during their coming visit to the United States about the rise of China reflect a belated realisation on Americas part that the China challenge is for real, but do not reflect the position of Australia, which has important links to both competing powers.

GEOFF MILLER: White Paper versus Whites Paper; some questions about Australian policies.

The Foreign Policy White Paper issued late last year is based on its judgement that the United States long-term interests will anchor its economic and security engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Is this right? Hugh White asserts the opposite. And whether its right or not, it seems were going to try to make it happen.

GEOFF MILLER. Singapore, Australia, the Quad and ASEAN---same same but different!

Singapore and Australia are having to deal with the same set of problems and relationships as the strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific changes. Singapore isnt a contender for an expanded Quad but, as next years Chairman of ASEAN, it will have an important role to play in one of the Turnbull Governments major foreign policy initiatives, the ASEAN-Australia Summit to be held in Sydney next March. A REPOST

GEOFF MILLER. Xi Jinpings China: this too will pass?

Xi Jinpings first five years have produced a China in which the Communist Party is in more control of more things, and restrictions on dissent and the free expression of opinion have grown. The recently concluded Party Congress seems to offer more of the same. But how will this recipe stand with a population growing steadily more prosperous, better educated and more familiar with the outside world?

GEOFF MILLER. North Korea: see you, and raise.

Trumps apocalyptic speech to the UN, combined with Mattiss comments, are designed both to daunt Kim Jong Un and to alarm China and Russia into putting more pressure on him.

GEOFF MILLER. Korea: Missiles or exercises or both?

Despite President Trumps latest supercilious Tweet, North Korea may still seek to make the cancellation of exercise Ulchi-Freedom Guardian the price of not firing its missiles into waters near Guam.

GEOFF MILLER. Kim Jong Un - Forcing the pace, or forging a peace?

Kim Jong Uns continual provocation of the United States can probably be best explained as a considered strategy to bring about negotiations between the two.

GEOFF MILLER. Shangri-la and AUSMIN---assertions, contradictions and questions.

Prime Minister Turnbulls keynote speech last weekend at the Shangri-la security dialogue in Singapore contained many strong assertions, but also contradictions. It also raised, and left unanswered, some big questions.

GEOFF MILLER. Decline and Fall of America? No, but a very difficult patch.

President Trumps actions, and the international reactions to them, are so bad that the question naturally arises, are we witnessing the beginning of the long-term decline of the West, and of the US in particular?

GEOFF MILLER. The Asia-Pacific: Busy Times, Big Choices

A number of recent, current and in prospect events emphasise the importance of clear thinking in regard to Australias policy stances in the Asia-Pacific. They include the Trump Administrations warming to China (despite pre-election rhetoric) especially in regard to trade, where a major deal has been done very quickly, and cooperation in regard to North Korea; the successful BRI-fest in Beijing, which was attended by a US delegation, and by our own Trade Minister; the US Freedom of Navigation exercise in the South China Sea, the first for a long time and strongly criticised by China; the US request to...

GEOFF MILLER. One dance too many - a new quadrilateral defence grouping.

Recently Paul Keating, in launching Allan Gyngells book on Australian foreign policy, said that smart countries did not tie themselves too closely to fixed positions in foreign policy---rather, they danced around. He said this in the course of arguing that Australia should not be so overawed by its alliance with the United States that it felt it had to join in every US policy initiative; some havent been successful, he said, and we should decide on what we did based on our own interests and consideration.

GEOFF MILLER. Too Nuclear to Fail?

The North Korean launch of four missiles towards the west coast of japan, reportedly accompanied by boasts about a coming ability to hit the continental United States with an ICBM, has raised the level of tension in North East Asia.

GEOFF MILLER. Foreign policy in our own interests.

We need to take decisions based on our own national interests. But we should take those decisions based on a knowledge of what regional countries think.

We can say 'no' to the Americans

Other countries with which the US has very close relationships have not always supported or joined in with the United States in ventures which the US government of the day thought of as of the highest importance.

GEOFF MILLER. Trump, Australia and the South China Sea.

The Trump victory has led to justified concern in Australia, as elsewhere, and few would carp at what seems to have been a successful and cordial talk between him and our Prime Minister. Its a good thing that Trump thought enough of the relationship to include Australia among the countries to receive an early call. However, we need to be careful in considering our responses, even to a welcome approach. In characterising the conversation, Malcolm Turnbull talked about the enduring nature of the ANZUS Treaty and the Australian-American relationship, which he said transcended whoever was President or Prime Minister...

Geoff Miller. Japan, 'embedding' and a world not of pure reason.

The Australian of 29 March reported Murray McLean, former Ambassador to Japan, as defending the Japanese submarine bid against criticism that it would amount to a virtual alliance that would ultimately thrust us into conflict with China. He reportedly said that Australia should choose a submarine based on the best technology and the best price, taking the right decision without thinking if some other country is concerned about it or otherwise. This issue has recently been ventilated both in the press and online, with articles by people including Prof. Hugh White of the ANU. His point has been not...

Geoff Miller. Managing or containing China.

Australia, China, the South China Sea and the uses of language. Recent reports published in both Australia and the US---including most notably in our case the Defence White Paper---and a series of visitors to Australia from China, the US and Japan, have increased the already high degree of interest and concern over future strategic dispositions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and over the present state of affairs in the South China Sea. In a recent post Cavan Hogue made important points about one piece of language frequently used in discussion of these matters, namely the need to...

Geoff Miller. Australia should not follow the US into an ill-considered adventure in the South China Sea

Current Affairs We all owe thanks to Sam Bateman for his excellentEast Asia Forum articleof 1 June in which he explains that the situation in the South China Sea around the Spratlys is not at all simple according to maritime law, that 'innocent passage' is hedged with many conditions, and that freedom of navigation operations 'are inherently dangerous'. He also points out that 'other countries...have also undertaken extensive reclamation works on their occupied features, including building airstrips and adding military fortifications.' The Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and Malaysia have all built airstrips on their islands; the Philippines airstrip is over...

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