Geoff Raby

Geoff Raby was Australia’s Ambassador to China from 2007-11, during which he visited all provinces in China officially. He served in Beijing as First Secretary (Economic) and then Counsellor (Economic), 1986-91. He was Ambassador to the WTO in Geneva, Ambassador to APEC, and Deputy Secretary, 2003-07. He was also head of the Trade Policy Issues Division of the OECD, Paris, 1993-95. He is a non-executive independent director of ASX listed-companies Yancoal, where he chairs the Health, Safety, Environment and Community Committee, and sits on the Board of the Gavan Foundaton.

His most recent book, Great Game On: the contest for central Asia and global supremacy, was published by Melbourne University Press on 12 November 2024. His previous book was China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s Future in the World Order (MUP Nov 2020). He regularly contributes op eds and travel writing to the Australian Financial Review. He holds a PhD in economics. He was awarded the Order of Australia (AO) in June 2019 for services to Australia-China bilateral relations and to multilateral trade.

Geoff's recent articles

No need for buyer's remorse: realism key to Australia's engagement with China

Australia, unlike the US, never expected China to become like us. That's why the relationship continues to be an outstanding investment in our prosperity and security.

Why has Labor lost its once-strong voice on foreign policy? (AFR August 25, 2020)

The opposition has failed to ask what the government has received in return for its lavish support of Trump's regional strategies.

The Australian Government regards China as a strategic competitor, a revisionist power, and one that must be resisted.

At last the contradiction that over the past four years has been at the heart of Australian foreign and security policy towards China has been resolved. In a series of important announcements, the Australian Government has now made it clear that it regards China as a strategic competitor, a revisionist power, and one that must be resisted.

GEOFF RABY. PMs Virus Inquiry was a Lose-Lose Call (AFR 4.5.20)

The Prime Minister and his Foreign Minister have handily demonstrated over the past fortnight how not to get an international inquiry into the origins and early management, or mismanagement, of COVID-19. It has been a useful lesson for students of strategy and how the Government in future might better advance Australian national interests.

GEOFF RABY supports Pearls and Irritations.

Pearls & Irritations has become indispensable reading for those with a serious interest in public policy and commentary.

GEOFF RABY.- China is coming out the winner in the coronavirus pandemic

With increased confidence in the Chinese bond market and lagging health measures taken in many of the worlds richest countries, Beijing may come out as an economic winner after the global coronavirus pandemic.

GEOFF RABY COVID-19 is unlikely to be Xis Chernobyl moment(AFR 2.2.2020)

Cynicism is prevalent but is trumped by the CCPs patriotic narrative and the governments performance in delivering on peoples expectations.

GEOFF RABY. Australia-China:The year ahead (UTS/ACRI Forum5.2.2020)

Civil emergencies have marked the start of the New Year for both Canberra and Beijing. Each in its own way is likely to have some implications for foreign policy and how the bilateral relationship is managed.

GEOFF RABY.-Why Xi Jinping has had a very good year(AFR 18.12.2019)

China's leader has shrugged off a trade war and an uprising in Hong Kong, and confounded Australia's establishment security hawks.

China in a time of change

Contemporary China cannot be comprehended without understanding the role of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). With 85 million members it represents a tiny share of the total population (1.4 billion) but is the worlds largest political party.

GEOFF RABY. Beijings Own Goal on Hastie and Johnson (Australian Financial Review, 21 November 2019)

These days there is never a dull moment in Australia-China relations. After a seeming slight thaw with the recent meeting between Prime Minister Morrison and Premier LI Keqiang in Thailand on the margins of the recent ASEAN meeting, Beijing has now spectacularly kicked an own-goal.

GEOFF RABY. Beijings Winning Hand in Hong Kong

Far from Hong Kong being a negative and putting Xi under pressure, as is commonly believed by most foreign commentators, including myself, the ongoing disturbance and violence have achieved two things for the Communist Party: fatal damage within China to democracys brand and confirmation of the USs agenda of regime change within China.

GEOFF RABY. The lowest ebb the decline and decline of Australias relationship with China

Today, the Australia-China relationship is at its lowest point since diplomatic relations began 46 years ago. (This Annual La Trobe China Oration was delivered on 29 October 2019. Itis much longer than usual postings. The issues involved however are very important and very topical. John Menadue)

GEOFF RABY.The China Threat leads to dead ends (Australian Financial Review, 29 October 2019)

The Australia-China relationship is at its lowest point since diplomatic relations began 46 years ago. This is something the Australian Government doesnt wish to discuss. Its diplomats are paid to put a positive spin on things. Elements of the conservative populist media almost rejoice in this state of affairs.

GEOFF RABY. An Economic Giant With More Brittle Politics Than Ever. AFR 1 October 2019

Chinas 70th Anniversary will be a razzle-dazzle extravaganza celebrating the achievements of the Communist Party of China since the founding of the Peoples Republic in 1949. The party-states propaganda machinery has already been in over-drive extolling the Partys achievements over the past 70years. On Tuesday, it will reach its peak with a massive military parade which will out do all others.

GEOFF RABY. The end of Hong Kong as we know it (AFR 6 Sep 2019)

Tragically, the turmoil in Hong Kong can only end badly. No good outcomes are available to the participants. Whatever happens, Hong Kong will never be the same again. 2046, the last year of the 50-year transition, will begin once the streets are cleared, however that is achieved. Hong Kong could well become a black swan event that changes the region and the world beyond.

Our China Threat is based on a fundamental error (Australian Financial Review, 19 August 2019)

Andrew Hasties intervention on the China Threat helpfully highlights the extent to which Australias intelligence, security and defence establishment (ISDE) is running Australias China foreign policy. In stark language he has laid out many of the assumptions that underly the supposed Threat. Contrary to the Prime Ministers assertion, as Chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, his is no mere private view.

GEOFF RABY. Xi Jinping: much more than just one man (The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, 16 July 2019)

Book Review: Xi Jinping: The Backlash by Richard McGregor (Penguin, Lowy Institute, 2019) Richard McGregor has written a dazzling account of the first six years of the Xi Jinping era and what he sees as the backlash to Xis increasing authoritarianism domestically and assertive foreign and defence policies.

GEOFF RABY. The Problem with Chinas Soft Power: It doesnt have any( AFR 17 July 2017)

Last week the US Pace Gallery announced it was closing its flagship contemporary art gallery in the famous 798 art space and expanding at home. Also last week, police squads and bulldozers moved in to demolish several more of Beijings spontaneously formed art villages.

GEOFF RABY and IRVIN STUDIN. Can Australia think for itself?

Some years ago, in his usually provocative way, Kishore Mahbubhani published a polemic, Can Asians Think? It was his push back against the uni-polar moment and the perceived arrogance of the Washington Consensus. Asia was capable of working out its own policies for its own circumstances. There was no one size fits all. In this essay, Irvin Studin, Editor-in-Chief of Global Brief, turns this around to declare Canada Must Think For Itself.

GEOFF RABY. Hong Kongs relationship with Beijing has been changed for ever

Hong Kongs relationship with Beijing has been changed for ever Whatever the precise figure, the demonstrations in Hong Kong were the biggest ever in the city and possibly the biggest in Chinese history against a government. Confident in the power of their unstoppable numbers a bloody catastrophe was just avoided by the good sense of Hong Kong people. The relationship between the people of Hong Kong and Beijing has changed forever. Hong Kong has not gone according to Beijings playbook.

GEOFF RABY. What a Morrison Government could do on China.

The Accidental Morrison Government needs now to face up to Australias most important foreign policy challenge: how to restore relations with China. Under Turnbull/Bishops mismanagement, the relationship plumbed its lowest depth since diplomatic relations were established 47 years ago. Doing so wont be easy and will require substantive policy changes, not merely a re-packaging of existing approaches and changed messaging, as helpful and well-intentioned as these may be.

GEOFF RABY. Wresting China diplomacy back from the securicrats.

In the fading days of the Morrison Government, two important decisions are likely to be overlooked. Both came last week. One was to establish the National Foundation for Australia-China Relations and the other the appointment of a new Ambassador to China.

GEOFF RABY. Trump will create early tests for a new Labor Government (AFR 13.2.2019)

In a few months, Labor is likely to take charge of Australias foreign policy and security. It will be doing so with a global order vastly different that which existed last time it held power. It is important then to consider how prepared is Labor for the task.

GEOFF RABY. How a desert book festival outshone the chill over Davos.

Last week two major events on the calendar of global gatherings kicked off the New Year. They could not have been further apart. Some 20,000 attendees, mainly middle aged and older, made their way up the snow blanketed steep valleys of far eastern Switzerland to the World Economic Forums annual gathering of the global business and political elites. Some 500,000 paid to attend the Jaipur Literature Festival (JLF) in Indias largely desert Rajasthan State and 80 per cent of the participants were under the age of 30 years.

GEOFF RABY. China needs a grown-up foreign policy for a changed era.

At the key 19th Party Congress in October 2017, Xi Jinping set out his signature policy Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era which, unusually early on in his term, was inscribed into the Partys Constitution as Xi Jinping Thought. Socialism with Chinese Characters was Dengs contribution to the Partys corpus. Xi added for the New Era.

GEOFF RABY. Xi Jinping's Year of Living Dangerously.

2018 may well go down as a defining year for President Xi Jinpings leadership one that marks the beginning of the end for the President for Life. President Xi began the year in full command of the country, seemingly ascendant on the world stage with his signature Belt and Road Initiative and, in the face of President Trumps unilateralism, incredulously a newly found champion of the multilateral trading system and defender of the WTO and other features of the fast-receding liberal multilateral order.But by years end, Xi is under pressure.

Australia has normalised relations with a China-led future (Australian Financial Review, 21.11.18)

The Australia-China relationship is almost back to normal. The speed at which it has recovered has surprised. It has taken two statesman-like speeches by the former Prime Minister and his successor, and the appointment of a new Foreign Minister as previously suggested in this column. The anticipated imminent visit by PM Morrison to Beijing will complete the process.

Time to ground Australia's China fear in facts (AFR 29.10.18)

As December draws near, thoughts turn to annual anniversaries and remembrances. This December marks the 51st anniversary of one of the more bizarre events in Australia's political history. On December 17, 1967, then prime minister Harold Holt disappeared while swimming at Portsea beach. He was alone at the time and the surf was rough. He was a good swimmer and was familiar with conditions in the area. His body has never been found.

GEOFF RABY. East Asia Just Became a More Dangerous Place

Hugh White in his controversial 2010 book, China Choice, warned Australian policy makers that with the rise of China, the time would come when the US would have to make a choice as to whether to withdraw gradually from East Asia and allow China strategic space for its continued expansion or to take a stand and seek to limit Chinas rise.

GEOFF RABY. Prometheus bound: How Chinas power is constrained

The more Australia positions itself as if there is only a binary choice between US or Chinese hegemonic influence in the region, the more likely conflict becomes.

GEOFF RABY. Australia needs a foreign policy not a speech (Australian Financial Review, 21.08.18)

The Prime Ministers intervention last week to take charge of China policy and begin to set out a clearer framework for managing the relationship was much too late and probably too little, but it was a welcome start nonetheless.

GEOFF RABY. An Australian-ASEAN Hedging Strategy on China

Australias diplomacy in recent years can at best be described as underwhelming, if not at times inimical to Australias national interests. In March, however, the presence of ASEAN Heads of Government in Australia, meeting at Prime Minister Turnbulls initiative, was an event of major significance. It is to be hoped that it will mark a return by Australia to its previous, activist, middle-power role in the Asia-Pacific Region.

GEOFF RABY. Lessons from Chinas 40 years of reform a very personal reflection

I am delighted to have been asked to open this conference [the China Economists' Conference] which is occurring on the 40th Anniversary of the launching of Chinas reforms and open-door policies, policies that have changed China and the world.

GEOFF RABY. How Kim Jong-un can bring his economy in from the cold.

In the early spring of 1990, Pyongyang was more prosperous than many foreign analysts, who had never been there, had thought. The CIA, for decades, had believed the country was on its knees, on the verge of economic collapse, although the Agency had not had any first-hand contact there.

GEOFF RABY. China relations can only be unfrozen with Julie Bishop's sacking

Once again Australian foreign policy seems to be missing in action. As events unfold at remarkable speed in our area of most strategic interest north-east Asia Australia finds itself unable to engage with the key participant at the centre of those events: namely China.

GEOFF RABY. The current mess in Australia/China relations

The Australia/China relationship is at its lowest point since the bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square on 4 June 1989 which provoked western sanctions against China. Arguably, it is even worse now. Back then the Chinese Government was bending over backwards to entice ministerial-level visits from Australia. Today the Chinese Government is telling our Ministers not to bother applying.

GEOFF RABY. Where have all the grown-ups gone on China policy?- A REPOST from June 23 2017

Malcolm Turnbulls glib talk of frenemies does nothing to help the urgent debate over how we handle the rising power of China.

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