Mack Williams

Mack Williams is former ambassador to the Republic of Korea.

Mack's recent articles

MACK WILLIAMS. The CSIS report on Irans missile program

In The Iranian Missile Threat, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington DC: 30 May 2019), Anthony Cordesman examines Iran's view of the threat, the problems in military modernization that have led to its focus on missile forces, the limits to its air capabilities, the developments in its missile forces, and the war fighting capabilities provided by its current missile forces, its ability to develop conventionally armed precision-strike forces, and its options for deploying nuclear-armed missiles.

MACK WILLIAMS. Attacks on Saudi Oil Facilities: Trump Locked and Loaded?

Whatever the real story behind the damaging attacks on the Saudi oil facilities, tensions in the Gulf and Middle East more widely have been significantly elevated. US attempts to engage the Iranians in direct and secret dialogue to try to wind back the US extreme pressures on Iran which Trump had claimed were underway when questioned about French President Macrons attempt at mediation are clearly in jeopardy. Whether Trumps tweeted threat that the US was locked and loaded to respond militarily to the attacks heightens concerns about further escalation in the Gulf area have yet to be seen.

MACK WILLIAMS. Alliance Management- Morrison's First Challenge : Iran

The past week of the Australian-US Ministerial Consultations (Ausmin) talks has presented the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, and his inexperienced ministerial team with the first serious test of how to manage the US alliance relationship. Despite the very difficult contemporary problem of coping with the most dysfunctional US administration in recent history we should not fail to recognise that the fundamental issues for our alliance remain as they have been for years. The Swamp is still very much alive.

MACK WILLIAMS Britannia Quo Vadis ?

Boris Johnson could hardly have chosen a more inauspicious moment to take over the reins in London with Whitehall in the death throes of a Prime Minister, the seemingly inevitable surge to a no deal Brexit plus the disrobing of Britannia by the Iranians and the likely accelerated pace of Beijings control over Hong Kong which inevitably will dog UK:China relations for some years ahead. All of which will be confused by President Trumps graceless embrace which not only claimed Johnson as his acolyte but deliberately emphasised that he was his man! As Johnson himself noted, he will certainly need...

MACK WILLIAMS : Korea : Just what did the DMZ Reality TV show add up to ?

After the enormous Reality TV coverage of the hastily arranged Trump:Kim meeting at the DMZ and the wads of media commentary afterwards,have the prospects of an eventually peaceful Korean peninsular been enhanced? To a large extent the jury is still out on this but there are a few possible glimmers of hope. The crunch issue remains an agreed definition of denuclearisation along with an as yet unresolved roadmap for future negotiations.

MACK WILLIAMS. Iran : Coalition of the less than willing !

The spectacle of Prime Minister facing the full court press from President Trump and his team across the dinner table in Osaka starkly demonstrated how G20 Osaka was to be Morrisons real initiation to the global arena. As the Iran crisis threatened to intensify it was little surprise that this became a prime focus of Australian media interest - even more than Morrisons claim that he would be speaking squarely to both Trump and President Xi about the serious risks posed to the global economy by the US:China trade war.

MACK WILLIAMS . North Korea : The tangled web becomes more so !

That the past few months have seen no real progress towards the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula is not all that surprising given the swirling global environment demanding priority attention for President Trump and other key stakeholders. Post mortems of the failed Hanoi Summit have revealed some significant divisions within both sides. Trump persists in proclaiming his close personal relationship with Kim Jong-un will eventually produce a deal but many of his allies and advisers remain sceptical. In the past few weeks the China card has become a major issue not only for Trump but also for President Moon as...

MACK WILLIAMS . North Korea : Any movement?

North Korea has been squeezed out of the media headlines in the months since the Hanoi Summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un failed to achieve a breakthrough in February. This has been a factor both of there not being much new to report and the seeming plethora of other crises at home and abroad - which Trump has on his agenda.

MACK WILLIAMS. Australia and the United States more than joined at the hip?

The recent Morrison Budget and the subsequent public commentary had precious little new to add to policy debate about future foreign policy directions for Australia other than to cut again our overseas aid budget to an accumulated 27% since this government has been in office. Sadly neither did the Shorten Budget Reply. But tucked away in the DFAT Portfolio Budget was a reference to an Australia: United States joint work plan which represents a significant strengthening of our linkage with the US.

MACK WILLIAMS : The Hanoi Summit and aftermath - a South Korean perspective

Special Advisor to President Moon assesses the Hanoi Summit as not a failure but a setback. China and the ROK continue to agree the need for a US:DPRK agreed roadmap to move past the present stalemate towards the longer term common objective of the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. At the same time the ROK has stepped up its working level contacts with the US. Prior to Hanoi, the ROK Opposition worked hard in Washington to urge Congress, the military security lobby and thinktanks to pressure President Trump to maintain a hardline approach in his negotiations with Kim Jong-un.

MACK WILLIAMS. Bolton's Syria "Fix" ?

The international focus on the failed Hanoi Summit and affairs Korean has diverted attention from the looming issues in Syria as the IS caliphate disappears. Media commentary around the shrinking IS presence on the ground in Syria and the significant numbers of foreign IS fighters and families has also overshadowed the urgent problem for the US of what to do now in Syria.

MACK WILLIAMS. The Second Trump:Kim Summit - Just another step along the way?

Amid all the media speculation feeding off Trumps own optimistic commentary and resolute scepticism of many long term Korea watchers there are some recent glimmers of very limited progress emerging from the Hanoi Summit. After a late start, the lead US negotiator Biegun has reported encouraging discussions with Kims negotiating team first in Sweden and now in Hanoi. Though understandably Secretary of State Pompeo has cautioned that there is still a long road ahead. The crux of the discussions remains an agreed definition of denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsular left unresolved after the Singapore Summit.

MACK WILLIAMS : Chinese view of Second Trump:Kim Summit

Given the key role which President Xi has played in the negotiating process between President Trump and Chairman Kim a recent analysis in the Global Times (published by the Peoples Daily) provides some valuable Chinese insights into the prospects for the Second Summit.

MACK WILLIAMS North Korea : What can another Trump:Kim Summit achieve?

President Trumps announcement of a second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in late February at an agreed but as yet unspecified location ( probably Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh) has reactivated interest in the search for a resolution of the Korean crisis. It followed a flurry of activity among key stakeholders over the past few weeks.

MACK WILLIAMS. Pine Gap: Cabinet Papers.

Lost in the flurry of media comment on the Cabinet papers released on 1 January was an extremely important( if not the most) submission formerly highly classified and titled as Establishment of a Joint Australia-United States Relay Ground Station at Pine Gap. As of writing, seemingly only the ABC has picked up on the submission with the major print media choosing not to report it for reasons one can only speculate about!

MACK WILLIAMS. Trump: Beginning of end or end of beginning?

Following the major Republican defeat in the US mid-term elections, President Trump has accelerated preparations for his 2020 re-election replacing Make America Great Again with Keep America Great as the theme. This will put more pressure on achieving his initial campaign rhetoric to clear the decks. But the series of problems he encountered in the past few weeks are complicating his plans. This is the scene in which the shock announcements on Syria and Afghanistan need to be viewed.

MACK WILLIAMS. North Korea: second fiddle?

Not surprisingly North Korea was relegated by the US:China tariff war in the recent G20 summit in Buenos Aires but some progress may have been made in preparing for the next phases of US:DPRK and ROK:DPRK dialogues. China also made clear the linkage between its trade disputes with the US and the extent of their cooperation in working on the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

MACK WILLIAMS. Australia-US Defence Relationship: Are we in the prudent planning phase already?

The publication by the ABC of a previously highly classified analysis of the ADFs logistic problems in the early phase of Gulf War 11 has shed some critical light on the process by which Australia joined in that war. It underlined the urgent need to review the role of ADF generals and other senior personnel embedded into PACOM in the contingency planning the US military must be preparing for the ramping up of military confrontation against China so vaunted on several occasions recently by Vice President Spence.

MACK WILLIAMS. New Cold War: Just how independent can Australia be ?

As renewed discussion grows pace in Australia about being less dependent on the United States in any Cold War against China how realistic is that option? For one thing we would need to loosen some of the linkages which have embedded us so deeply into the US defence machine through the US Indo Pacific Command (INDOPACOM).

MACK WILLIAMS. Korea: Still many challenges ahead

Despite President Trumps exchange of love letters with the North Korean leader, from the public record it seems that Secretary of State Pompeos last discussions with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang failed to achieve any significant breakthrough on denuclearisation. But there have been several important developments in the Korean scene over the past few months which impinge directly on Australian national interests.

MACK WILLIAMS. Korea: We're here because we are here!

Korean issues have often been edged out of the headlines in the past few months by a plethora of other global issues but they remain far from being resolved. War War been replaced by Jaw Jaw at least for the moment. Much is still simmering along largely beneath the radar. And much has been clouded by the chaotic US domestic scene not only surrounding President Trumps own governance problems but equally his relations with the US intelligence and defence establishment. So where do things stand right now?

MACK WILLIAMS. Korea: what should Australia be doing?

While the pace of media reports about the Korean Peninsular has slowed a little since the Singapore Summit there has been much going on in public and under wraps. Skepticism about the Norths commitment to the core issue of denuclearisation has grown but it is still clearly too early to form definite conclusions about where it may all end . The central negotiations remain between the United States and the DPRK but with the ROK closely connected there is a flourishing set of side talks between other key players and some without any direct US involvement. Foremost among the...

MACK WILLIAMS. North Korea - managing Donald !

Amid the avalanche of reporting and commentary of the Singapore Summit one needs to step back to assess just how the Trumps much vaunted (by him) negotiating style so far has played out . This is not just an academic exercise. It is vital for countries like Australia whose future has become so entwined within the United States geopolitical view of the world . We must have a more informed understanding of the way Trump operates if only to minimise the risk of being blindsided like other close US allies such as the Republic of Korea and Japan have just...

MACK WILLIAMS. Korea : After Panmunjeom

Much has been written about the recent Kim:Moon Summit and its communique. The signs on the interKorean front are encouraging but all still hinges on how the Kim:Trump Summit. It will have to address the absolutely critical issue of denuclearisation what it actually means and how could it be achieved. There is still far to go and the challenge for Trump is to find a way short of Armageddon that will really so diminish the North's nuclear and ICBM capability that he can claim a victory.

MACK WILLIAMS. North Korea - it's summit time!

The pace of developments on the Korean peninsular in the past month or so has been breathtaking matched by the plethora of pundits who have sought to interpret what it all means and where we may be headed. Not surprisingly given the history and geography and the stakeholders involved much of coverage has been confusing and often contradictory. Facts are hard to come by as also has been reliable inside information. But it is all about to kick off with the two Korean leaders holding their summit later this week in the DMZ. So what do we know?

MACK WILLIAMS. Vanuatu : Chinese Cargo Cult ?

Fairfax Medias awakened interest in the South Pacific would have been only too welcome if it had not been sparked by a leak from the all too familiar senior defence sources in Canberra and Washington which so distorted the scene.

MACK WILLIAMS. North Korea: What now?"

President Trumps positive response to Kim Jong-uns invitation to direct talks naturally has created a swirl of media commentary and speculation. It has served Trumps interest to promote a sense of surprise though it probably also reflects a considerable amount of activity by a number of stakeholders in recent months. Given the DPRKs track record in earlier negotiating efforts and the seemingly dysfunctional White House, it is hard to be more than cautious about where it might lead.

MACK WILLIAMS. Australia : US - Limits and responsibilities of mateship!

The recent quick visit of the Prime Minister to Washington has raised more questions than it has answered about the state of Australia's relations with the US and China. Have the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister set out a new policy on China and the South China Sea or are they just playing at trying to distance themselves modestly from Washington?

Admiral Harris : Ambassador or Viceroy?

The appointment of Admiral Harris as Ambassador to Australia raises serious concerns about the role he will play in the development of Australian strategic policy as we seek to maintain the sort of relationship with China and the US outlined in the White Paper.

MACK WILLIAMS. Revisiting Australian strategic policy in the light of NDS18 Where to start ?

The new US strategic policy requires serious and urgent revisiting of our key strategic policy positions to identify implications it has for Australia. Any attempt to minimise differences for short term political gain could endanger the nations longer term future.

MACK WILLIAMS. China : All the way with USA ?

The Turnbull Government was clearly caught flat-footed by the significant change in the Trumps security strategy announced by Defense Secretary Mattis. Defence Minister Paynes initial comment and background briefings had to be corrected quickly. All of which underlines the urgent need for detailed review of NDS18s implications for Australian strategic policy.

MACK WILLIAMS. New US National Defense Strategy: Back to the Cold War?

The new US National Defense Strategy heralds a new strategic direction under Trump which significantly reduces the priority of counter-terrorism and confirms a return to global competition with China and Russia with the basic objective to outspend both in defence. All of which has some serious implications for Australia. The influence of the US 'junta of generals' is apparent.

MACK WILLIAMS. Adrift in the South China Sea? -A REPOST from May 22 2017

While Washington is paralysed by alleged White House scandal the US has taken its eye off the South China Sea. Continuing developments in the region have reinforced Chinas position. Australia cannot afford to delay its own examination of our long term national interests in our neighbourhood.

MACK WILLIAMS. Breaking the ice at Pyeongchang?

The decision by the DPRK to reopen high level talks with the ROK next week in preparation for the Winter Olympics is monumental for the ROK. Followed by the US:ROK decision to defer major military exercises at the time of the Games it could well provide an opportunity for informal contacts which could lead eventually to direct US:DPRK talks.

MACK WILLIAMS. 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper : An urgent case for genuine change management !

The White Paper provides a long overdue but commendable assessment of the extensive challenges and opportunities for Australian foreign policy. It should have formed the basis for considered parliamentary debate. Unfortunately, while acknowledging for the first time the extent and pace of change, it offers few new or fresh ideas on how it should be managed and is preoccupied with maintaining what it can of the status quo.

MACK WILLIAMS. Muslim Mindanao: once more into a quagmire?

We need to be very careful in not overhyping the IS activity in Marawi and soliciting an invitation to military involvement without a comprehensive Australian review of the complex issues at stake in Mindanao and our wider relationship with the Philippines and the US.

MACK WILLIAMS. The South Koreans are a critical part of the equation

As the shouting match becomes more heated between Kim Jong Un and President Trump the role of the popular new President Moon has become more difficult. The most likely casualties in any outbreak of military exchanges would be the population of Seoul and would be very large. These must be considered properly in advance of military action.

Talisman Sabre just confuses strategic thinking for Australia

The recent joint US:Australian Talisman Sabre joint military exercise has added further confusion to the challenge of determining sensible Australian strategic thinking. US talk of a joint expeditionary force to combat IS terrorism in SE Asia camouflages an attempt by senior US military to draw Australia into a much closer US embrace.

MACK WILLIAMS. North Korea ICBM threat to Australia.

The DPRKs recent ICBM test raises some extremely serious concerns for Australia which will need to be carefully considered by the Australian Government before it rushes off into decision making on the run as has been the case in the past week of hyperventilation. Any attraction of the DPRK to include Australia as a target for its ICBMs would derive more from US defence presence in Australia than from any factors inherently Australian.

MACK WILLIAMS. Mindanao call to the Caliphate !!

Media coverage of the claimed IS connections of the jihadists in Marawi have highlighted their call for a caliphate. The intractable scene in Mindanao indeed is concerning but it is born out a much longer and different history than elsewhere one where the US (and others) have long been involved. Australia needs to be very careful not to become militarily entangled.

MACK WILLIAMS. Trump's 'smart cookies'

President Trumps characterisation of Kim Jong-un as a smart cookie illustrates the learning process he is undergoing about how to operate in Asia and who might be contributing to it. Learning how to manage President Duterte may be another challenge.

MACK WILLIAMS. Korean Peninsula - just where are we right now?

So much is going on in the different channels between the US and China, China and the DPRK and by now maybe US and DPRK that reading the tea leaves is an almost impossible - if not frantic - task. The situation remains extremely high risk and crystal ball gazing is near to fantasy.

MACK WILLIAMS. Canberra wrong-footed in our region?

For Ms Bishop to be talking in Singapore about China and democracies, the Japanese big ship and rallying the claimants while pleading with the US to remain staunchly committed in the region certainly is risky. We could be exposed as being more hard line than the US might turn out to be and interpreted as Australia insensitively lecturing the claimants.

MACK WILLIAMS. Joint patrols with Indonesia in the South China Sea?

Has Foreign Minister Bishop finally been able to kill off the proposed joint Australia: Indonesia patrols in the South China Sea ?

MACK WILLIAMS. South China Sea: China taps in the last nail!

It is now clear for all to see that the only potential US ally for any US confrontation in the region could be Australia. China has successfully wedged the ASEANs in through their common concern that it would be them that would suffer most from any military confrontation in the South China Sea.

MACK WILLIAMS. When and how to say 'no'. Darwin?

We cannot remain oblivious to the fact that the creeping incrementalism, which has characterised the Defence Postures relationship, is likely to slip us into positions from which it would become increasingly difficult to say No. We need a line in the sand now to prevent this happening.

MACK WILLIAMS. Trump : Getting our priorities right

Is China going to fill the void? The media-hyped flurry to try to establish the likely policy guidelines of the Trump administration is timely and natural but should be approached very cautiously. Not only is it virtually impossible at this moment to reach many definitive conclusions it is no less easy to identify the likely key players in the new administration even within the close-in transition team as the sacking of Governor Christie and his cohort has illustrated. At the same time Australia needs to undertake a proper review of the major strategic trends in our region which...

MACK WILLIAMS. General Macarthur, the Philippines and Australian troops in WWII.

The very good Boston Globe article reminded me of two other events in Philippines history of WW11 about which so little is known in Australia. They have some relevance to the contemporary scene. For a long time prior to the famous Macarthur landing in Leyte, the Australian Government lobbied Washington right up to the President for our 7th Division to be included in the invasion force. Macarthur steadfastly refused even when so directed by the White House. The result was that the AIF's 7th Division was separated out of the invasion fleet and sent to Borneo (many ending up in...

MACK WILLIAMS. The real shipping choke point for Australia - Sibutu Channel

Neither the Australian government nor the Australian media have informed us about the critical nature of the Sibutu Channel. As mentioned in this blog some time ago. the active political and media discussion in Australia about the South China Sea has continued to ignore the fact that the most critical choke point for Australias huge trade with North Asia is the Sibutu Channel. This lies inside Philippines territorial waters between Sabah and the southernmost Philippines islands. Nor has our media recognised that this area has long been a hot spot for the Muslim insurgency in the Philippines and more recently...

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