Michael Keating
Michael Keating is a former Secretary of the Departments of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Finance and Employment, and Industrial Relations. He is presently a visiting fellow at the Australian National University.
Michael's recent articles
21 April 2022
Stagnating living standards under Morrison
Living standards have stagnated since the Coalition was elected to government, but in the Budget it is now forecasting an improved performance. How likely is this?
21 March 2022
Whither the Australian federation
In the absence of Commonwealth leadership, our federation is not working well. That comes at a cost to good government, and is impeding service delivery and any future reform agenda.
4 March 2022
The Grattan Institute's policy priorities - what do they cost?
The Grattan Institutes proposed policy priorities deserve wide support. However, how to pay for them is not adequately addressed, and their implementation would require the incoming government to raise additional revenue.
17 February 2022
What we can expect from the coming Budget
It is to be feared that the forthcoming budget will be a mixture of spending bribes and unsustainable tax cuts. This is not what is needed to restore economic stability and the provision of essential government services.
7 February 2022
This election needs policies that address cost of living, not just unemployment
Scott Morrison wants us to believe that low unemployment means the economy is fine, but there are other structural economic issues at play too.
31 January 2022
With a tricky Budget challenge coming up, winning an election may be easy part
Whether it likes it or not, the party that wins the election will most likely be forced to raise additional taxation revenue not long afterwards.
27 January 2022
How modern technology could bring democracy to a crossroads
Advances in technology have resulted in employment and wage dislocations that are polarising society and undermining trust in political institutions.
9 January 2022
Morrison government fiddles as the economy stagnates
The government's economic forecasts are highly questionable and the uncertain budget outlook raises doubts about the future funding of essential services.
7 January 2022
Obsession with secrecy pervades the Morrison government
The Prime Minister and his department's evasion of Freedom of Information regarding the minutes of the national cabinet should disturb all Australians.
19 December 2021
Increasing wealth inequality: how should the government respond?
Even if flaws in the retirement support system are addressed, there would still be a good case for an inheritance tax on the largest transfers.
6 December 2021
It's about opportunity: a lesson on capitalism for the party of capitalism
Morrisons theme that can-do capitalism beats dont-do government is nonsense. Labor can respond by exalting government's role, writes Michael Keating.
17 November 2021
The unspoken lesson from the government's climate modelling
The governments modelling leaves some legitimate concerns unanswered, but it does suggest a more ambitious emissions reduction target for 2030 is viable.
4 November 2021
How Scotty from Marketing seeks to deceive about climate change
The Morrison governments proposed response to the threat of climate change tries to reconcile different interests by deceiving them both.
25 October 2021
How Australia could halve carbon emissions by 2030
Australia needs to cut its emissions by 45-50 per cent by 2030. Australia can realise this near-term target and grasp the opportunities that it also presents.
24 October 2021
Why we should halve carbon emissions by 2030
Net zero for carbon emissions in 2050 is meaningless without an ambitious target to halve these emissions in the next decade. In a two-part article, Michael Keating sets out why we need a more dramatic target.
6 October 2021
Wasting away: the Coalition governments poor management record
So much for superior economic stewardship from the Morrison team. Many services are underfunded while government mismanagement is resulting in a massive waste of money on other programs.
28 September 2021
In defence of Australia's submarine decision
Swapping the expensive French conventionally powered submarines for nuclear submarines was the right decision, and it does not have to come at a cost to Australias independence.
21 September 2021
The quest for small government comes at a cost to good government
The Coalition preaches that small government is best. But the reality is that government is not actually smaller under the Coalition and what voters really want and need is good government.
8 September 2021
When should the lockdown end?
Suppressing the virus will require much lower caseloads before lockdowns can lift, even if we meet vaccination targets.
29 August 2021
Covid-19 Infections, Vaccinations, Lockdowns, and the Economy
The Morrison Government is desperate to end lockdowns, not least because of what they see as the damage the lockdowns are doing to the economy.
17 August 2021
Scott Morrison is no leader
Unlike the great Prime Ministers, Scott Morrison will not be remembered for his achievements. Instead, he will be judged by his unwillingness to take responsibility and provide the necessary leadership to adequately respond to the principal challenges facing this nation.
8 August 2021
Why Morrisons culture of secrecy is so damaging
As has been widely observed, Prime Minister Morrison is obsessed with secrecy. This obsession with secrecy damages both the policy capability of government and the integrity of public administration.
2 August 2021
What does Labor offer? Part 2
Part 1 of this article discussed the implications for equity and inequality resulting from Labors recanting its previous opposition to the Governments Stage 3 income tax cuts, as well as dropping its policies to reform the taxation provisions covering capital gains and negative gearing. Part 2 discusses the other major concern; the ability of a future Labor Government to now pay for the services that we need and want.
1 August 2021
What does Labor offer? Part 1
Labors repudiation of its previous opposition to the Governments Stage 3 income tax cuts, and its decision to drop its reforms covering the taxation of capital gains and negative gearing raises two major concerns.
5 July 2021
The IGR report and its failure to expose the critical policy choices
The Treasurers recently released Intergenerational Report has been widely criticised for its narrow modelling framework. But even within this framework, the assumptions appear to be excessively optimistic. Consequently, the Reports conclusion that Australias budget is fiscally sustainable way into the future is not credible.
26 May 2021
Should Labor oppose the Governments Stage 3 Income Tax Cuts?
Australia faces a choice between demands for lower taxes, and raising the revenue needed to fund essential services. This article suggests how a plan to increase taxation revenue could be presented at the next election, starting with ditching the Governments Stage 3 income tax cuts.
18 May 2021
When should government debt be repaid and how?
There is no problem financing government debt. As the debt can only be repaid by running budget surpluses, debt reduction should start in mid-2023 when the Treasury is forecasting that economic recovery will be complete and there will be no spare capacity.
13 May 2021
How good is the 2021 Budget?
The 2021 Budget continues the Governments good work in minimising the impact of the Covid recession and promoting economic recovery. However, the Government could still do better in setting up Australia for the future and guaranteeing essential services.
4 May 2021
Has the Governments economic strategy really changed, and what can we expect in future?
The Governments new focus on unemployment as the key target for budget policy is welcome. But it will need to spend more and therefore tax more, if Australia is to achieve its full economic potential and jobs growth.
25 April 2021
Technology not taxes is a slogan not a policy
True to form, Scotty from marketing has given us a slogan trumpeting technology not taxes and not a real policy for dealing with climate change.
19 April 2021
Accountability in the public sector: Part 2
In Part 1 of this article, I discussed the broad role and capability of the public service to assist the government in policy development and its implementation. Part 2 discusses in more detail how accountability is presently working (or not working) in practice and proposes some improvements.
18 April 2021
Accountability in the public sector: Part 1
This two-part article is based on a speech that I gave to a webinar sponsored by the Centre for Public Integrity on 15 April about how the public service should contribute to the integrity and accountability of executive government. Part 1 discusses the broad role and capability of the public service to assist the government in policy development and its implementation.
5 April 2021
What is the risk of a housing price bubble?
Home ownership is a cornerstone of the Australian way of life. But it is becoming less affordable. This article discusses the risks of a housing price bubble and what can be done.
24 March 2021
UK conservatives are willing to tax the rich to repair their budget, Morrison will only take from the needy
Conservative politicians in both Australia and the UK profess to believe in small government. However, UK conservatives are prepared to increase tax to fund essential government services while in Australia, our conservatives try to achieve small government by stealth by not properly funding key government responsibilities.
22 March 2021
The Reserve Banks target for wage growth is difficult whilst the Government resists wage increases
The Reserve Bank has tied the future of monetary policy to the restoration of wage growth. But how likely is that, and what are the consequences?
15 March 2021
How good is Scott Morrison? Or is it all marketing?
After a bad beginning with the bush fires, Scott Morrison has understandably claimed credit for Australias relatively strong performance in mitigating the health and economic consequences of the Covid pandemic in 2020. But looking to the future, how much substance is there, or is he just Scotty from marketing. So long as Morrison remains determined to maintain secret rather than open government we cannot expect any improvement. But unfortunately, this seems to be the fundamental nature of this Prime Minister, and he is unlikely to change.
7 March 2021
In our hands: Will we 'Reset' or return to the Dog Days?
As we emerge from the Covid recession, Ross Garnaut argues that Australia is facing a critical choice: change for the good or return to the Dog Days that preceded the recession. Garnaut's book 'Reset' makes a major contribution to how that can and should happen.
1 March 2021
Lets talk tax: It's vital if Labor genuinely wants a fairer, more equal society Part 2
Part 1 discussed the policy platform that Labor needs to seize leading up to the election. However, such a platform will lack credibility unless all its policies are fully costed, and it is clear how they will be paid for.
28 February 2021
Liberal and Liberal-lite: a Hobson's choice for voters at next election? Part 1
Will Labor offer voters a real choice? Labor should grasp the nettle and focus on the key challenges facing Australia climate change and inequality. Tomorrow, I will discuss the budget consequences of this policy agenda, as this is essential to Labors credibility.
4 February 2021
Upturn: all too familiar ideas but an advance on Coalition's limited offerings
An eclectic set of essays, the book Upturn: A better normal after Covid-19 tries to put forward a serious reform agenda.While there is a wealth of enthusiastic ideas, Upturn is unfortunately stronger on identifying problems than solutions. This post concentrates on the chapters discussing economic and social welfare. Reviews of other chapters will be posted in coming days.
25 January 2021
Fundamental purpose of superannuation is to provide adequate retirement incomes, not finance bequests
The priority for retirement incomes policy is to ensure that retirement savings are used efficiently to generate an adequate income. Until this occurs, there should be no change in the legislated increases in the compulsory superannuation guarantee contribution rate.
20 January 2021
Despite appearances, this government isnt really Keynesian, as its budget update shows
It is tempting to think the Australian governments decision to spend big an unprecedented 33% of GDP this financial year according to the budget update marks an embrace of Keynesian economics after decades in which authorities have looked the other way.
5 January 2021
Why inequality increased and what to do about it
The evidence clearly shows that the rise in inequality has been principally driven by technological change. But governments can make a difference. Education and training policies to assist the adjustment to new technologies can help preserve the distribution of income and an egalitarian society.
29 December 2020
What real reform looks like: increase wages and tackle inequality, climate change
The economy has been stagnating for years under successive Coalition governments. It badly needs fixing, but it can be done. This is how.
28 December 2020
Dont scare the horses: Morrisons business-friendly reforms change little
While the Prime Minister has acknowledged Australia needs to reconsider its policy framework to restore full employment, the areas identified for reform are poorly chosen, and little of substance is likely to emerge. An alternative will be discussed tomorrow.
17 December 2020
The medium-term budget outlook and its policy implications. Part 2
Yesterday Part 1 considered the medium-term outlook for the budget deficit and government debt. Today Part 2 discusses the Parliamentary Budget Office projections of revenue and expenditures, how realistic they are, and why policies will need to change if we are to return to sustained economic growth and fiscal strength.
16 December 2020
The medium-term budget outlook and its policy implications. Part 1
Instead of being back in the black this financial year, the budget outlook is for deficits continuing for the foreseeable future. The critical issue for policy is how should the budget deficit be wound back, how far and how quickly.
1 December 2020
From here on our recovery will need more than fiscal policy, itll need redistribution
From the 1980s right through to the global financial crisis, the standard response in Australia and elsewhere to too weak or too strong an economy has beenmonetary policy the manipulation of interest rates by a central bank, in our case the Reserve Bank.
30 November 2020
Can macroeconomic policy ensure the inflation target?
If Australian wages do not increase sufficiently in line with economic capacity, it risks a shortfall in aggregate demand that will make the achievement of an inflation target very difficult, or even impossible.