Mike Scrafton
Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.
Mike's recent articles
23 November 2022
DeSantis ideology is clearer, darker and more coherent than Trumps
DeSantis would likely deliver the next staggering blow to liberal democracy in America. He has made his ideology unambiguously clear, and it is darker and more coherent than Trumps. Americas allies would be well served to monitor closely the political tides as the 2024 presidential election approaches.
8 November 2022
US National Defence Strategy reveals Australia's nuclear deterrence role
The obvious problem with Australias defence policy is the confusion between defence of Australia and fighting wars far from Australia. The argument for pursuing the former is incontestable; this is a key obligation government has towards taxpaying citizens. The latter is of questionable justification.
2 November 2022
B-52s at RAAF Tindal commits Australia to America's nuclear war plans
Its difficult to avoid the conclusion that Australia is not just complicit in, but committed to, Americas nuclear war planning.
24 October 2022
US Admirals driving AUKUS had conflict of interest: Washington Post
The Washington Post has disclosed that a group of US Navy admirals critical to shaping secret negotiations for the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal had undeclared conflicts of interests. This is indefensible and must be subject to a public review.
17 October 2022
US National Security Strategy: dogma for a misconceived crusade
American National Security Strategies (NSS) are a bizarre hegemonic specie. The latest version is saturated with more than usual hyperbole. The Biden Administrations obsession that the defining characteristic of international reality is an ontological dichotomy between democracy and autocracy distorts the Strategys perspective.
20 September 2022
The Defence Strategic Review: Pop psychology and Game of Thrones drives fear of war
At a time when Defence policy is being reviewed, public discussion needs to be rigorous and evidence based. There is an obligation on prominent experts to avoid unsupported speculation and alarmism. To do otherwise simply clouds the nature of the challenges and eliminates non-military approaches.
19 September 2022
The Defence Strategic Review: The US Taiwan Policy Act would be a game-changing act of provocation
The Australian government, perhaps initially through the DSR, must explain clearly to the Australian public what cost it is prepared to pay as a tool of American policy, or how it intends to maintain its sovereignty and ensure the security and safety of Australians.
10 September 2022
The Defence Strategic Review: the greatest threat to Australias security arises from its uncritical attachment to the United States
The Defence Strategic Review, or the Porcupine Strategy, cannot ignore the reality that the greatest threat to Australias security arises from its uncritical attachment to the United States, and to the assumption that the US will persist as a reliable and rational partner into the future.
15 August 2022
Would Australian defence of Taiwan amount to the crime of aggression?
The Defence Ministers Cabinet colleagues must be able to rely him on to provide authoritative guidance on the legal use of military force. The public has a right to expect his statements on international law to be meaningful and correct. Richard Marles has not demonstrated that capacity.
11 August 2022
Defence reviews; what are they good for?
It is essential that the new Defence review not degenerate into the usual ritualistic orthodoxy. In these perilous times it cannot be allowed to become a narrow, jargon-laden, orthodox military consideration but must situate Australias strategy and military posture in the context of the important foreign policy issues.
9 August 2022
Ausmin and Aukus: It's even worse than you think. Australia is now openly a cog in Americas war plans
Nothing exemplifies the loss of national sovereignty, and the abandonment of strategic autonomy, like handing the war decision over to the US. The submarine issue is simply a blind. AUKUS is just a distraction.
6 August 2022
Facing "Hothouse Earth", will Labor continue half-a-century of inaction?
In a new book, Hothouse Earth, Bill McGuire depicts the coming climatic catastrophe and argues that there is now no chance of us avoiding a perilous, all-pervasive climate breakdown.
24 July 2022
International law and rules-based order are different in important ways for Australia
Australian politicians appear purposefully blind to domestic developments in America; and especially poorly briefed on the subterranean scholarly debates that suddenly emerge as new policy directions. For instance, understanding the intellectual battle over international law that has been taking place in professional journals and academic monographs is of vital importance to Australias public diplomacy and strategic policy.
14 July 2022
Mr Marles tugs the forelock in Washington
New Defence Ministers ritually wend their way to Washington to offer up jaded homilies. Full of hagiographic accounts of ANZUS and strained assertions of shared values, they often also display a submission to Americas strategic objectives. The new Ministers visit, however, foreshadows a dangerous abandonment of fundamental elements of national sovereignty by the Labor government.
11 July 2022
War over the rules-base order doesnt make sense
Going to war over the rules-based order seems unremarkable to our leaders. The nature of the rules-based order, and how it would be preserved by conflict, seems to be intuitively perceived by political leaders. Yet, the elevation of the rules-based order to a status so sacrosanct that the destruction of civilisation is justified in its defence demands investigation.
26 June 2022
Beijing not Madrid, Prime Minister, would be more in Australia's interests
In the national security domain, changing governments is like changing spark plugs in that nothing else changes. From their darkened cloisters the militarists befuddle new ministers with gloomy prognostications while proffering prophylactics like deterrence, alliances, and interoperability. And so the Prime Minister is off to the Madrid NATO conference.
15 June 2022
The American sophist: Blinken weaves a Bidenesque fantasy
In a time of multiple crises the sophistry of our leaders is more than dangerous. The narratives their words weave might advance their personal agendas but will leave the world ill-equipped to handle pandemics, wars, social upheaval, and climate disruption.
9 June 2022
Proactive Defence diplomacy not American militarism better supports Australias security
Well, that didnt take long. The names have changed but the script still comes from Washington. There is not going to be a rethinking and resetting of strategic policy by the Albanese government in the same way they have begun correcting the foreign and climate policy failures of the Morrison era. The rigid shutters of the security establishment have come down on the new minsters with lobotomising force.
27 May 2022
The window for Albanese to assert Australia's sovereignty is closing
Its far too early for a running commentary on the Albanese government. The new Prime Minister handled himself as well as could be expected in Tokyo and dispatching the Foreign Minister to the Pacific while her Chinese counterpart is in the region is a good move. Hopefully, the new Cabinet will bring a new perspective to foreign and strategic policy before being dragged down into the delusional world of the military/security/intelligence establishment.
9 May 2022
After Ukraine a fractured and unravelling global order will confront the next Australian government
Putins forces might not progress far beyond the Dnieper River, yet the invasion will reshape the world in which the next Australian government operates. Evidence indicates that pouring funds into Ukraines reconstruction could feed an already corrupt elite
1 May 2022
Ethics and war: The Ukrainian tragedy
Among the headline grabbing events and the geopolitical speculations of the Ukrainian tragedy the ethical rights and wrongs of the conflict are largely ignored. For his criminal invasion, Putin rightly bears the greatest moral and legal opprobrium for the appalling death toll, atrocities, and widespread levelling of parts of eastern Ukraine. But once the war reaches its conclusion, retrospectively the contribution of others will come under closer scrutiny.
20 April 2022
Habitual bipartisanship is toxic to good defence policy
The dominant object of Australias capability development program is simply to continue to deepen Australias alliance with the United States. Politicisation and secrecy has allowed successive governments to exclude voters from defence policy decisions of the utmost importance. Only a radical shift in the portfolios governance can restore confidence and integrity to defence policy, and to the Defence Organisation. A courageous new minister committed to transparency and participatory democracy is required. That the Defence organisation is struggling under mediocre management and procurement processes has been highlighted by the Australian National Audit Office, among others. First, to rectify this, defence policy...
12 April 2022
The need for a department of climate change is now self-evident
The time has come for a powerful government Climate Department to allow strong action on legislating, regulating, and coordinating mitigation, adaptation, and transition.
11 April 2022
Don't swallow the prunes - ADF's inter-service rivalry on display
Admiral Prunes unabashed bid for Navy funding has provided a window in to inter-service rivalry in the ADF. Also, it gives an unfortunate glimpse of the confused thinking infecting Defence.
4 April 2022
Ukraine: A victory narrative will be hard to maintain for Europe and America
Wars end. The peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine will determine whether President Putin or President Biden achieved his policy aims in the war. It seems unlikely that America will be able call it a win.
21 March 2022
Australia is ignoring important lessons from war from Ukraine
Defence policy and the reality of war should be at the centre of election following the Russian aggression in Ukraine . But Australian political leaders continue to ignore that reality.
10 March 2022
Australia's strategic fundamentals at risk from Ukraine war
The big strategic question for Australia coming out of the Ukrainian war concerns the lessons China might draw and what impact that will have on US-China competition, and therefore Australias security.
1 March 2022
A national security yardstick on which the Coalition doesn't outshine Labor
The use of national security for political advantage is a perilous business.
23 February 2022
Can someone in government explain why we are buying tanks?
When did US generals become arbiters of Australias strategic policy like its some banana republic.
15 February 2022
Australian Defence policy is a shambles and an election issue
For nearly a decade Coalition governments have overseen defence policy. Now Defence policy is in need of serious reform.
6 February 2022
Morrison pins his hopes on the complacency or ignorance of voters
We're facing a climate calamity, yet the PM believes Australians are more focused on the next holiday than threats to their children's future.
18 January 2022
No justice for Djokovic: the danger of different rules for politicians
Plenty of parliamentarians, mainly in the government, have made more incendiary statements against Covid vaccination than the tennis star ever did.
17 January 2022
Intolerance and political violence: a threat to US, and a worry for Australia
Biden could be succeeded by a democratically elected illiberal administration beholden to violent and bizarre supporters.
10 January 2022
Global warming: the nine essential questions for candidates at election 2022
Providing thoughtful answers should be the minimum requirement for candidates. Even more exhaustive answers should be demanded of cabinet hopefuls..
20 December 2021
More than an acronym: AUKUS must be an election issue in 2022
When the nuclear-powered submarines are delivered they will be expensive white elephants. Theproject will distort defence policy for a generation.
15 December 2021
Why the West must tread carefully in assessing China
By downplaying China's strength, commentator Paul Dibb ignores contemporary realities and underlines the subjectivity of strategic assessments.
29 November 2021
Shutting down ASPI: Hugh White, Peter Jennings and China
In responding to Hugh White's analysis of the cost of a war over Taiwan, ASPI's Peter Jennings makes the case for just how irrelevant his organisation is.
24 November 2021
No island is an island anymore: the flaw in Morrisons 2050 plan
There's the emissions reduction modelling, and then there's the reality. Guess which side the Australian government prefers?
9 November 2021
The French disconnection: Australia's dysfunctional diplomacy
The alarming deterioration of relations between French leader Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison was driven by arrogance and ignorance on the Australian side.
18 October 2021
Zero chance of net zero: the human security challenge after 2050
We are condemned to a hot planet. A 4-degree warming is inevitable no matter what measures are taken, so humans must now consider how to cope with this reality.
3 October 2021
Magical thinking: nuclear submarines and Australias Maginot Line of the imagination
The relationship between defence policy and the nuclear powered submarines has generated a lot of magical thinking.
25 September 2021
Distracted by the submarine bauble, Labor and the media miss the point
Australia is about to become home to American bases, and potentially a nuclear target, and this seems to have escaped the attention of the Opposition and the media.
20 September 2021
AUSMIN and AUKUS: Its even worse than you think
Nothing exemplifies the loss of national sovereignty, and the abandonment of strategic autonomy, like handing the war decision over to the US. The submarine issue is simply a blind. AUKUS just a distraction.
18 September 2021
Mike Scrafton: Nuclear-powered submarines are just bad defence policy
Australian governments are now certain to be bedevilled by submarines for generations.
16 September 2021
Obsessing over confrontation with China leads to arid policy grounds
Shaping Australias China policy is complex enough without chasing impractical outcomes. Peter Hartcher and Geoffrey Barker are concerned about the threat from China but pursuing a confrontational strategy has shortcomings.
8 September 2021
Bidens folly: a virtual summit with real consequences
President Joe Biden will convene a virtual Summit for Democracy in December a brave and foolish move, given the political paralysis and discord in the US.
16 August 2021
Afghanistan is a warning for all US allies
As an ally of the US Australia should be reflecting deeply on Americas third major postwar strategic fiasco. The US military has brought overwhelming military power and technological sophistication to major defeats in Vietnam, Iraq, and now Afghanistan. In each, the allies have been let down or suffered.
2 August 2021
ASPI outsourcing our defence policy to the gun runners!
Australias strategic policy discourse takes place in a fog of claims about risk and the warning time, while the key issues are the balance and trajectory of military forces in the Asia Pacific and the strategic interests of the regional states. Recent exhortations to urgent actions and radical defence reforms are alarmist and confused, and are being used to promote the outsourcing defence policy.
29 July 2021
ASPI, AZERIs, the ADF, and the Defence hierarchy
ASPIs Michael Shoebridge's criticism of the professionalism and competency of the Defence hierarchy is serious. He paints the military and civilian hierarchy in Defence as hidebound, and infers they are placing service personnel and the nations security at risk. His analysis, however, displays a surprising degree of unfamiliarity with military affairs, and does not support his grave assertion.