Mike Scrafton

Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.

Mike's recent articles

The enemy within the gates-the key to American politics

It is not at all clear how much more stress, how many more incendiary inputs into its inflammable politics, the American Republic can stand before it becomes fully dysfunctional and unworkable.

Australia's strategic conundrum-Is America declining?

Jon Stanford and Hans Ohff criticise the ADF for [P]lanning for the last war rather than the next. Yet, their plan returns to a simplistic defence of Australia scenario from the 1980s. Nevertheless, their recent piece in ASPIs Strategist blog (republished in P&I) provides an entre to the related conundrums facing Australias strategic policy; the decline of US power and the circumstances under which Australia might come under direct threat.

Biden's hopes fall short in G7 communique

The results of the G7 summit in Cornwall have received considerable criticism. For many, it was simply a staged production involving smoke and mirrors. Behind the thoroughly estimable objectives littered throughout the communique can be seen the inherent weakness of the G7 grouping. Once mighty, now best at papering over its growing irrelevance.

Behaviour, the pandemic, and climate change

Implementation of carbon reduction and other global warming-related policies will be an inordinately difficult challenge. The inability of governments to effect widespread, sustained behavioural change has been an outstanding feature of the past eighteen months of the pandemic. In preparation for the transition to a zero-carbon, climate-adapted future, the past assumptions underlying policy implementation need to be urgently reassessed.

Not the war over Taiwan again!

The lack of high-quality strategic analysis by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has been frequently highlighted in P&I. Nonetheless, ASPIs dangerously inadequate analysis should be regularly confronted.

Once was a hegemon: Australia and the decline of the US

Australias Indo-Pacific obsession hides a radical global geopolitical shift. Australian policymakers will persist in making poor choices unless they accept that the US hegemony has passed a tipping point, and America has already become just one great power among others.

Warriors, war and Mike Pezzullo's ANZAC Day message

If Mike Pezzullo, Secretary of Home Affairs, were to move to the top Defence job his views on war become of crucial public interest. The governments reaction to his message to staff on ANZAC Day emphasises this point.

Capitalism, COVID, and Climate

Capitalism, COVID, and Climate

The pandemic alliance between Big Pharma and governments foreshadows how the market-based capitalist system will fail to address global warming. Just finding low emissions technology is not an answer.

Democracy militant: strategic autonomy and Europe's lessons for Australia

The Biden Administrations China policy assumes that among democratic nations there is a shared view on an existential competition with China. The re-emergence of the issue of European strategic autonomy highlights President Bidens misunderstanding. Rather than again uncritically fall in behind Americas foreign and strategic policies, Australia needs to pay heed to Europes mature approach to sovereignty and autonomy.

A Minneapolis community and systematic racism

While I think would be a conceit for outsiders to imagine the lives of the residents of George Floyd's neighbourhood, the trial in Minneapolis does however provide a limited glimpse of a lived experience which, other than for many indigenous citizens, is alien to most Australians.

Shifting national interests put Bidens alliance strategy in doubt

The Biden Administrations approach to China is anchored in the strength America draws from its alliances. The President and the Secretaries of State and Defensehave made this clear. This is an anachronistic basis on which to construct a strategic policy given todays strategic realities.

Radical people, not technology, are needed for a sustainable revolution

Michael Keatings summary and review of Ross Garnauts latest book Reset:Restoring Australia after the Pandemic Recession is stimulating and important. While massive sustainable transformations in Australias economy and society are required, the emphasis on macroeconomic policies and the faith shown in technology is concerning.

The persistence of American authoritarianism should worry Australia

The persistence of American authoritarianism should worry Australia

America has become less comprehensible and predictable to outside observers. The scale of the support for ex-President Trumps election fraud claims, the assault on the Capitol, and the failure to convict Trump in the Senate, all seem to be portents of an emerging illiberal authoritarianism. The illiberal forces are barely restrained. Australian policymakers must already have reached the point of asking what if? and be thinking about possible policy realignments. At a minimum, the task of imagining a post-alliance future must begin. Complacency is not a strategy.

Competition for technological primacy between the great powers will draw in ASEAN

Scott Morrison assumes the ASEAN states will line up with the US and Australia in attempting to blunt Chinas growth and influence. Yet China can offer the ASEAN states solutions to their pressing problems of population growth, poverty and urbanisation through its 'smart cities' technologies.

Taiwan: a 'wicked' strategic problem for Australia

ASPIs executive director Peter Jennings is banging the war drums over Taiwan again. He would have Australia automatically marching into a war in defence of the island. Why would Australia go to war over Taiwan?

Is Trump's 1776 Commission report an extremist manifesto?

The 1776 Commission Report released on 18 January 2021 is a time bomb of extremist propaganda; a source document for the arguments and recruitment of white nationalists and white supremacists, and for the apologists of radical libertarianism.

What should Australia want from a Biden National Security Strategy? Avoiding war in Asia

Australia should hope for a major shift away from President Trumps strategybut not an uncritical return to President Obamas 2015 version. For a start a new NSS should reposition the US as a less crusading nation, one more accepting of difference

Preparing for a 3C warmer future: the ideological shift and institutional response Australia will need.

Three things are obvious. The collective emission reduction efforts of nations will not avoid 3oC global warming by the centurys end. Therefore, national adaptation actions will need prepare for the worse than expected scale and impact from the effects of climate change. As a result, earlier ideological assumptions about governments will have to give way to policies that are interventionist and systemic.

The deceit of deterrence; a bankrupt strategic justification for defence expenditure

Although references to deterrence are regularly trotted out to justify defence acquisition decisions and alliance policy, the place of the idea of deterrence in Australias strategic policy is opaque and poorly understood. That the effectiveness of a deterrence strategy is highly dependent on contingent circumstances is regularly left unaddressed by advocates of ever greater defence spending.

China-Australia relations: it's not as simple as ABC

There are many commentators with strong and legitimate concerns about China. The relationship between Australia and China is a very important one and it warrants open and vigorous debate

ASPI resorts to bullying to deter strategic debate on China

Peter Jennings, Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), has launched an ad hominem attack belittling those who take a contrary approach to Australia-China relations rather than advocating for war preparations. But it is his poor grasp of his subject matter that is most disappointing.

ASPIs guide to submarines leaves the biggest strategic questions unanswered

The interested reader would see much of this report as a public relations exercise, talking down to the public, and attempting to divert questions away from the burning one. Is this submarine intended primarily as a contribution by Australia to a possible conflict in the South China Sea? If it is, the Minister and the submarine cheer squad should tell the public. The, by now, sceptical interested reader might conclude that this diversionary effort is in itself an inadvertent admission.

Exaggerated threats and contrived military strategies: a response to Jon Stanford

For all the discussion of Chinas aggression, it is the US and its allies that have been constantly at war for two decades.

No power in the Lowy Asia Power Index 2020

TheLowy Asia Power Index 2020 reveals a misunderstanding of the concept of power, and some underlying subjectivity and biases, undermines its usefulness. This is illustrated in the measures used concerning technology, military power, and the impact of the pandemic....This enterprise is at least partly funded by the Australian government security agencies. The benefit to taxpayers is not self-evident.

IMF on global warming: impractical, naive and important

The response to global warming has to be at the same time political, science-based, and economically informed. Reading the International Monetary Funds (IMF) 2020 World economic outlook: a long and difficult ascent, is instructive on this point.

The strategic aspect of human rights: a tool of hegemony

With America's fading hegemony, new regional powers with regional hegemonic aspirations are displaying their ideas about human rights; ideas based on their particular historical, cultural, political, and religious experiences.

The US role in the world: a new normal

President Trump has pursued a different vision of the USs role in the world. This has had an undeniable impact on the USs relations with allies and competitors alike, and has reshaped the general perception of the US as a global actor.

The bathtub is nearly full: Australia's extraordinary energy plan

TheCoalition government's energy planensures the emissions tap will continue to flow. While economic recovery following the pandemic is an important objective, to ignore the consequences of persisting with fossil fuels is incomprehensible.

Will Trump's rejection of history divide America?

The 1776 Commission proposed by President Trump to counter the New York Times 1619 Project and other narratives about America being pushed by the far left, is not the equivalent of Australias conservative versus liberal history wars. It is about something far more dark.

Scientists and capitalists agree on climate. When will governments act?

Time again for Australias political leaders to ignore the regular cycle of reports that highlight the failure to deal with the coming climate disaster. The pandemic might provide a look over there opportunity to distract citizens, but the recent climate publications warrant close attention.

The UN at 75: a real declaration of intent, or multilateral virtue signalling?

An atmosphere of unreality is building in advance of the virtual meeting of world leaders to mark the 75th anniversary of the United Nations (UN). Nothing demonstrates this more than the proposed draft declaration. Rather than reaffirming the UNs centrality, the draft declarations faux earnestness jars amid the current international reality. Additionally, it ignores the biggest challenge to multilateralism.

The strategic mirror: the Pentagon's China report reveals converging power and strategy

From Australias perspective, the Pentagons 2020 Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China Report is valuable for two reasons. It reinforces the absurdity of Australia planning to participate in high-intensity conflict against China under any circumstances. Additionally, it reveals the symmetry between US and China strategic policy.

Australia's policies towards China have little support in the region.

The Southeast Asian states see themselves as being in a region where China and Japan have the most influence, and where the US's influence is declining. The foundations of Australia's strategic logic are very shaky.

A bigger canvas: Russia, China and Australia's strategic policy

In an article in The Conversation, Professor Alexey Muraviev has pointed out that Australia has failed to factor into its strategic calculations the relationship between China and Russia. While Russia poses no credible direct threat to Australia, it could be a key player in a conflict between the US and China.

The current signs are ominous, and Australia is possibly stumbling blindly towards war.

Todays risks and the history of war: recognising the unknowable. The point of no return is mostly only evident in hindsight, and nations occasionally find themselves unexpectedly teetering on the edge of conflict.

Cancel culture, Nick Cave and the Harper's Letter: a moan from the Ivory Tower or call to the liberal battlements?

Nick Cave has revived the issues raised in the Letter on Justice and Open Debate published on 7 July 2020 and signed by 150 noted authors, academics, and public intellectuals. Issues that cut straight to a key fault line in liberalism.

Australian strategic policy: why we need a robust public debate

Australias writings on the history of strategic policy and military history are abundant and of a high quality. However, this knowledge is not reflected in the public debate on issues pertaining to Australias strategic policy choices.

AUSMIN 2020: confirmation of Australia's abandonment of strategic autonomy?

Australians should not be quite as comforted by the governments recent statements around Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) as some have indicated. Reassuring word s are the slippery province of diplomacy. Strategic policy is founded in force structure and force posture.

Confronting global warming: do democracies have the expertise?

Global warming, ecological collapse, biodiversity loss, and social injustice are complex, technical challenges. Understanding them and their relationship to each other requires high levels of expertise, and solutions will demand political leadership. Confidence that democracies can meet these challenges isnt high.

The Rationale for the 2020 Force Structure Plan: A 2040 War with China?

There is a mismatch between the urgent need to respond to the supposed recent deterioration in Australias strategic circumstances and the 2020 Force Structure Plan (FSP).

The 2020 Defence Strategic Update: Finding coexistence with China

There is little to quarrel with in Hugh Whites assessment of the uncertainties in East Asia. His counsel to the government on the way forward for strategic policy, on the other hand, is less satisfactory.

Race is not real: Its time to stop acting as though it is.

For something that doesnt exist race exerts a pernicious and persistent influence on society. Rational arguments and protests wont exorcise the racial ghost and the struggle against its worst manifestations will be endless.

The Australia-India Strategic Partnership: Shared values mask the real strategic purpose

The phrase shared values is regularly used as the basis for international relationships and alliances, and the lack of the same shared values as the reason for adversarial relationships or friction. It is a mantra that is much over-used, and often deployed deceptively and hypocritically.

Sovereignty and Self-determination: The wider implications of Israel and the West Bank

The great thing about sovereignty is we always respect the sovereignty of other nations and we simply expect the same in return, said Australian Prime Minister Morrison on 14 May 2020. However, there is nothing simple about sovereignty and it makes a poor basis for foreign policy.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The Deep State conspiracy theory

When, without apparent reason, good things disappear or bad things appear it cannot be random. Thats when conspiracy theories flourish. The US presidential election campaign is haunted by one. Is Trump laying the groundwork for The Great Presidential Robbery?

MIKE SCRAFTON. Historical amnesia: Great power behaviour and criticism of China

Between 1890 and 1920 the democratic US became a great power. Its trajectory from western hemisphere state to global power has some economic, military and foreign policy parallels with authoritarian Chinas growth in the twenty-first century.

MIKE SCRAFTON. A blinkered view: China in the Antarctic

The recent report Eyes wide open: Managing the Australia-China Antarctic relationship by Anthony Bergin and Tony Cross falls into the category of if Chinas doing it, its malevolent.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The harder reality of humanity's road to the future

After the pandemic passes the world will be left with a series of far graver challenges. The solutions, if there are any, will only be found through clear-eyed, objective analysis of the interrelated causes and effects, shorn to the extent possible ideological assumptions.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Regulation, tariffs and reform of supply chains.

The political leaders that brought us global supply chains, hollowed out public services, and dwindling administrative capacity, are potentially about to find themselves in a series of contradictions.

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