Mike Scrafton

Mike Scrafton was a Deputy Secretary in the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, senior Defence executive, CEO of a state statutory body, and chief of staff and ministerial adviser to the minister for defence.

Mike's recent articles

MIKE SCRAFTON. The dogs of war cry wolf: The post-pandemic China threat

Two senior analysts of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) recently published pieces that put its reputation for sound analysis and practical policy recommendations at risk.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Australia's strategic quandary: political leadership and the abandonment of strategy

On current planning, in the next great war Australia will have no strategy.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Blinded by 'the science': COVID-19 and the authority of science in public policy

Governments should not be able to avoid scrutiny and accountability for their actions by leaning on the authority of science.

MIKE SCRAFTON. A tale of two Americas: Australias foreign policy choices post-pandemic

As Michael Shoebridge has rightly pointed out, how the US rebounds from the COVID-19 crisis will be important for international relations and Australias foreign policy. However, hagiography and selective historical references dont substitute for serious reflection and reassessment.

MIKE SCRAFTON. COVID-19 and preparing for global warming

The COVID-19 crisis tells us some important things. The flaws in the neo-liberal model have been exposed. Democratic politics have been stressed to breaking point. The shocks to the economic, social and fiscal systems required to stop global warming are shown to be unfeasible.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Capability gaps: mean dogs and submarines

A flurry of submarine related commentaryhas followed a new Insight Economics report, Australias future submarine: do we need a plan B? Its arguments for submarine capability, and for a Collins 2.0 class to fill in until the Attack class enter service, lean very heavily on a rather fuzzy concept; the capability gap.

MIKE SCRAFTON. COVID-19: Dirty hands and political leadership in a crisis

Normally, bringing ethics and crisis politics together in a crisis is like putting Siamese fighting fish in the same tank; only one is likely to survive.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Shades of herd immunity stalk COVID-19 government responses.

Seeping faintly through the pronouncements and policies of some government responses to the coronavirus pandemic are the vapours of older belief systems; a whiff of utilitarianism, the scent of social Darwinism, and the fetid reek of eugenics.

MIKE SCRAFTON. When to take the military option off the table

Many of the Chinese regimes practises are repugnant to democratic values and human rights. That distaste and disapproval doesnt warrant Australian governments pursuing a crusade or adopting an irrational strategic policy based on fighting a war with China, either in the company of the US or alone.

MIKE SCRAFTON. What do the Chinese think of the US-Australian Alliance?

With similar articles in The Australian and The Strategist, Peter Jennings has lauded the governments decision to refurbish and expand RAAF Base Tindal in the Northern Territory as a giant strategic step forward.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Is the US a normal country?

Remarks at the Munich Security Conference by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper are full of unconscious irony.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The warning that wasn't on the submarines.

The Australians correspondent Robert Gottliebsen (The Australian 12 Feb 2020) has found a clear warning to the Australian nation buried in the ANAO audit report on the Future Submarine Program.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Traps, Trump and Thucydides

The Belfer Center has announced the winner of the public competition run by Harvard academic Graham Allison to craft a grand strategy to meet the China challenge. Allisons concept of a Thucydides Trap was the theme of the competition. The lessons of Thucydides are more profound.

MIKE SCRAFTON. A critique of SEA1000 from the outside

When critiquing governments strategic policy, the things were better in my day syndrome needs to be avoided. That these decisions and the supporting background strategic analysis and assessments are always hidden from wider view by secrecy classifications and need-to-know protocols must be accepted as must the reality that pragmatic consideration will be given to other important matters like alliance and industry policy. Still, how did SEA1000 happen?

MIKE SCRAFTON. Democracy and Ignorance-climate deniers and climate believers

Behind many of todays challenges is the problem of ignorance. Thats not to deprecate or disparage the intellectual capacity of citizens or their desire to be well-informed. The proliferation and complexity of knowledge and the segmentation of disciplines and expertise means there is just too much for anyone to absorb it all. This is a problem for policy setting in democracies; climate science is one example.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Future Submarines and Future War

The SEA1000 Future Submarine project is back in the news following the ANOA report. Jon Stanford has demonstrated how badly this acquisition project is flawed. How government imagines the submarines will be employed remains imponderable.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Mnuchin, Thunberg, Economics and Science

The comments of US Secretary of Treasury Steve Mnuchin concerning Greta Thunberg were meant to be droll. However, they reveal a serious and dangerous cognitive dissonance affecting much of the worlds political elite.

MIKE SCRAFTON. How good are Royal Commissions?

Morrisons call for a Royal Commission on matters related to the bushfires is puzzling. It is difficult to avoid the suspicion that it was a thought bubble exuding from the advisors of a Prime Minster under great pressure. For the government there would seem to be little upside.

MIKE SCRAFTON. NATO, the Middle East and the policy vacuum

The Iran crisis has inspired three public utterances of relevance to Australias foreign and strategic policy; from, in chronological order, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, President Trump, and our own inestimable Prime Minister. Collectively, they reveal the real depths of the crisis and a disturbing lack of strategic vision.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The re-election of Donald Trump

The biggest question in geopolitics is; will President Trump be re-elected? This issue will be prominent in the private councils of Heads of Government in Europe, Asia and elsewhere. However, the American presidential election will be determined by domestic issues that swirl around a collection of policy issues as well as identity and values.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Crisis and the Transformation of Government Administration

Today, there are four simultaneous and momentous crises before which modern democracies seem impotent; global warming, population growth, wealth inequality, and a dangerous geostrategic shift. This brings me to the Thodey Review.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Iran, the US, and Australia

The Middle East situation now falls outside the province of rational analytical discourse. Small events might provoke unimaginably large and uncontrollable responses.

MIKE SCRAFTON: President Trump and the world at the end of 2019

Like the fierce Atlantic storms than weaken overtime and end as gentle zephyrs playing harmlessly along the coast, Trumps blustery and boisterous foreign policy is visibly running out of wind. Strong words and sanctions have led to foreign policy impasses with none of his administrations main objectives being any closer than in 2017. Another year of braggadocio on twitter and a flaccid follow through is not what the world needs.

Uighurs and glass houses

The Wests modern sensibility is rightly offended by the scale of Uighur incarcerations in Xinjiang the and the ruthlessness with which the Chinese government is pursuing the extermination of Uighur culture, language, and religion. To the contemporary mind these acts are repugnant. This notwithstanding, the darker episodes in European and American history nonetheless should be kept in mind when crafting condemnations of China.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Global warming - we're screwed!

In 2018, the IPCC warned with high confidence that Global warming is likely to reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052 if [the rate of emissions] continues to increase at the current rate. The World Meteorological Organisation reported this week that in 2018 emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide had equalled or surpassed emissions in the previous year. Were screwed!

MIKE SCRAFTON. Irish Reunification-Child of Brexit

Arriving at agreement on a new Irish Constitution following a post-Brexit Border Poll would expose the cracks in Irish identity. There is little public evidence that any governmentin the Republic, Northern Ireland, or the UKhas given serious thought to the steps that would need to follow a double yes vote.

MIKE SCRAFTON. It's not all about Brexit

Everyones crystal ball is fogged. The outcome of the UKs election is clouded. More than the future of the nations relationship with Europe depends on the outcome. Brexit might be one of the lesser consequences.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The Speech Albanese should have given

No! No! No! The headland speech given recently by Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, was just more of the tired old evidence that he doesnt get it. His are the economic and political priorities of another time when people still believed resolutely in the worth of neo-liberal economics and unfettered globalisation. It was not the bold speech for a time when the natural environment and ecological systems that sustain all of human activity are collapsing, and global warming threatens not just more and worse storms, droughts, and floods, but also climatic shifts with unpredictable consequences for, inter alia, agriculture, public health,...

MIKE SCRAFTON.But what about war?

Military forces perform many functions, but their unique role is to fight wars. Though obvious, this is rarely addressed by commentators on defence policy or by governments. Professor Dibbs presentation to Royal Australian Navys Sea Power Conference avoided direct references war. At the same function the Defence Ministers speech was quiet on the ultimate point of investing billions in the armed forces.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The shallowness of Australia's strategic policy

Two largely neglected issues highlight the paucity of Australias strategic policy; energy and global warming

MIKE SCRAFTON. The real basis of Morrison's foreign policy

The Prime Ministers speech In our interest to the Lowry Institute is curious, befuddled, and a little disturbing. As is normal with such presentations, it was peppered with political bromides and Morrison did not drill deeply into the details. The tips of much bigger and weightier conceptual massifs were detectable through the fog of self-laudatory political statements. The PM faces difficult a difficult task balancing Australias interest in pleasing both China and the US, his efforts to straddle these stools resulted in him employing specious values to cover raw self-interest.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The strategic significance of Abqaiq and Khurais

The debate over the military implications of relatively inexpensive drones and cruise missiles has been enlivened by the recent attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. This spectacular demonstration of the effectiveness of drones and cruise missiles has prompted claims that it has changed global warfare. Inevitably all modern defence force inventories will include such weapons, many already do, and military planners will need to focus on their use and defences against them. These weapons will find important roles but will not have a drastic impact on higher end conflict.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Morrison and the absence of justice

In his comments to IPAA, Prime Minister inadvertently illustrated the problem with government. Its not the Westminster system of government or the role of the public service which are secondary issues. The primary question concerns the purpose of government. Morrisons solution to the trust deficit affecting democracy is wrong.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Abbott, more than an embarrassment

Former prime minister Tony Abbotts ignorance of history and of the Europe European Union, and his tragic adulation of all things British, is simply embarrassing. His licensing of a permissive setting for white supremacists and white replacement conspiracy theorists is dangerous, irresponsible, and inexcusable.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The Afghanistan failure

President Trumps muddled and reactive approach to foreign and strategic policy regularly distracts the media and commentators away from the geopolitical consequences of Americas actions under his stewardship. The coverage of the negotiations with the Taliban and proposed withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan is a perfect example. After eighteen years of war the US is understandably keen to extricate themselves from a costly conflict. When they do peace will continue to elude the Afghans.

MIKE SCRAFTON. On the blindness of politicians

The Senates Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee has generated one of the great jargon infested documents of recent times. The introduction to The Inquiry into nationhood, national identity and democracy Discussion paperreveals much about what is wrong with politics in Australia. Like a first year tutorial paper it traverses multiple issues trying to mention everything without analysing anything. This is inquiry is a misguided and futile exercise that is confused about its purpose and will lead to nothing practical or implementable.

Hong Kong and the ghost of Tiananmen

Michael Shoebridge of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has artfully given the appearance of logic to a melding of fact, supposition and obsession in order to reach the conclusion that it is time for the international community to step up to prevent a foreseeable massacre that will further cleave Chinaand other authoritarian regimesfrom the rest of the world. The protests in Hong Kong are his launch platform but his target is always President Xi and the CCP.

Battles, campaigns, and wars

The United States Studies Centres latest publication, Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific, contrary to its title, offers up a path to crisis. While the report draws attention to the fading of the previously unchallengeable military dominance of the US, the recommendations for Australia are flawed.

The conversation about China

Senator Wongs call for a mature conversation aboutf the issue of China is more than welcome. A serious discussions of the implications for Australia flowing from the rise of China was sadly missing from the recent election. However, there is an unexpected naivety in her suggestion that MPs and Senators receive foreign affairs and national intelligence briefings about China to remedy the governments failure to discuss Australias relationship with the emerging superpower.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The persistence of white supremacists in the US is the problem

In the wake of the recent murders by white supremacists, blame has been apportioned partially to President Trumps rhetoric and to the availability of white replacement theory and white genocide conspiracy material. Both are relevant but the policy challenge is far greater. Even in the absence of both, white supremacists will persist.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Ministers and public servants

Geoff Gallop offers up eleven theses on Australian politics to provide public servants with a nuanced understanding of politics. His theses are more than a little condescending and simplistic. The theses seem directed at middle level or junior public servants, or maybe new entrants to the service. However, the nature of the relationship between senior public servants with policy responsibilities and minsters is increasingly an important and fraught issue.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Im afraid of Americans

The opinions to which we should pay most critical attention are those of commentators best placed to influence government. Peter Jennings, Executive Director of ASPI, is one. Now he is claiming a new cold war with China is playing out in all but name.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The real cost in How to Defend Australia.

In How to Defend Australia, Hugh White has produced a work that removes much of the mystery surrounding Australian defence policy making. The historical experiences and institutional influences affecting Australias major past and present strategic policy positions are lucidly set out. His main objective though is to make the case for a significant boost to Australias defence spending based on his understanding of the strategic risks facing the nation. He would have us fighting a futile war in search of an illusory victory.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The Chief of the Defence Force and political warfare

General Angus Campbells presentation at ASPIs conference War in 2015 was thoughtful and provocative. Some of the CDFs views are germane and apt are others contestable. He opened by saying, I sense a renewed concern in the world for the potential for state-on-state conflict; however political warfare was his main concern.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Strategy In A Bubble: ASPIs war plans

ASPIs relentless push for ever greater defence spending gets another iteration in Malcolm Daviss Forward defence in depth for Australia . As a breathless list of key horizon technologies, Daviss paper makes entertaining and informative reading. As a justification for putting Australia on a permanent war footing it is wanting.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The new national security - protection from global warming

Ian Dunlop has argued persuasively that global warming now represents an emergency situation akin to wartime. The alarmingly obstinate year-on-year increase in the levels of greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere has brought this about and will ensure the IPCC prediction that [G]lobal warming is likely to reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate is exceeded. The disaster of the Anthropocene is now unavoidable. The world has passed a tipping point and national security now means defence against the consequences of global warming.

MIKE SCRAFTON. Unquantifiable strategic madness of war on Iran

There have been reports that President Trump is less enthusiastic about attacking Iran than his advisers. For the moment, an unanticipated source of sanity. The current US posturing against Iran seems confected. It also seems mad. A US attack on Iran would be blatant and naked aggression. The knock on consequences could have strategic dimensions that are difficult to fully comprehend.

MIKE SCRAFTON. IPBES and IPCC: Calamity cannot be averted

The key messages contained Intergovernmental Science- Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services' (IPBES) Summary For Policymakers are not surprising. The trends have been well known for a long time, perhaps only the current scale of the crisis might be news. But if earlier reports like the IPCCs Global Warming of 1.5C or UNs World Population Prospects The 2017 Revision havent galvanised the necessary level of response then there is no reason to believe the IPBES report will do so.

MIKE SCRAFTON. The rules-based international order; or a dead parrot.

Strategic policy is perhaps the most challenging area of government. For decades policy settings have largely been perfunctory with the US alliance occupying the central place. The post-Cold War setting of a single dominant hegemon has meant policy makers havent had to operate in an international order characterised by balance-of-power considerations. Even the confrontation between the Soviet Union and the West was atypical. The main feature of future geopolitical relations is likely to be dispersed centres of power and influence with overlapping and competing interests. Australian policy makers appear unprepared for this shift.

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