Ramesh Thakur

Ramesh Thakur is emeritus professor at the Australian National University and a former United Nations Assistant Secretary-General. Of Indian origin, he is a citizen of Canada, New Zealand and Australia.

Ramesh's recent articles

The risk of a nuclear breakout by Iran has increased

The risk of a nuclear breakout by Iran has increased

The Donald Trump-JD Vance victory marks a repudiation of the post-Cold War neoconservative Washington playbook of militarised responses to foreign policy challenges. Tulsi Gabbard, the director of National Intelligence-designate, shares their anxiety over America’s addiction to intervening in foreign conflicts not of vital interest to the US, whose net effect has been to destabilise countries and entire regions.

The challenge of nuclear weapons to the UN Security Council: Adapt or Die

The challenge of nuclear weapons to the UN Security Council: Adapt or Die

The United Nations is the biggest incubator of global norms to govern the world and the vital core of the rules-based global multilateral order. Four parts of the UN system have complementary roles in efforts to regulate and eliminate nuclear weapons.

The long arc of India-Russia relations

The long arc of India-Russia relations

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia on 8 and 9 July and embraced President Vladimir Putin. The outcome of the visit included mutually beneficial substantive agreements, but damaged India’s reputation in the West at a time when President Joe Biden hosted the NATO summit in Washington. The BBC featured an analysis under the title Modi’s balancing act as he meets Putin in Moscow. On 23 August Modi went to Kyiv, the first visit to independent Ukraine by an Indian PM. The BBC headlined it as ‘Diplomatic tightrope for Modi as he visits Kyiv after Moscow.

What stands in the way of a nuclear weapon-free world?

What stands in the way of a nuclear weapon-free world?

Stronger treaties are needed more than ever as Hiroshima marks A-bomb anniversary.

Voters tell Modi: Keep going, but under caution

Voters tell Modi: Keep going, but under caution

The biggest takeaway from India’s eighteenth general election is that the death of Indian democracy has been much exaggerated. The exercise was a resounding win for the election machinery of the world’s most populous democracy. The entire exercise and the outcome affirm once again the competence, professionalism, and integrity of the country’s election machinery. ‘India is starting to look like a Central Asian dictatorship,’ said an article in the Australian Financial Review on 7 May. Really? That particular analyst will not be the only one with egg on their face.

Israel and Gaza: Yesterday, today and tomorrow

Israel and Gaza: Yesterday, today and tomorrow

Veterans of Middle East affairs say wryly that anyone who claims to understand the Israel-Palestine conflict has been misinformed. This paper reviews the complex and emotionally fraught history of the Conflict; looks at 10/7 and Israels war on Hamas in Gaza in retaliation, and then speculates on possible pathways to the conflicts resolution that could amount to more than another truce in the endless cycle of violence.

While Australia votes, India-Pakistan cricket is downstream of politics

While Australia votes, India-Pakistan cricket is downstream of politics

On 14 October, my attention will wander between three unconnected stories as they unfold in real time. I will be in New Zealand on that general election date. Polls indicate the Labour government will be replaced by a centre-right coalition. But the peculiarities of the electoral system make election results and the outcome of post-election negotiations between the major parties and potential allies teasingly uncertain.

Assassination allegations: The caution of Canadas allies is well grounded

Assassination allegations: The caution of Canadas allies is well grounded

Seemingly out of nowhere, Canada and India are embroiled in an escalating diplomatic crisis after PM Justin Trudeau implicated India in the June 18 killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent British Columbia (BC) Sikh leader. India has strongly rejected the unsubstantiated charge as absurd.

US decides to supply depleted uranium shells to Ukraine

US decides to supply depleted uranium shells to Ukraine

At the G20 summit in Bali last year, most of the worlds most influential leaders had strongly deplored the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. By contrast, thejoint declarationfrom the just concluded summit in New Delhi does not mention Russia by name. Instead, it talks about the human suffering and negative added impacts of the war in Ukraine with regard to global food and energy security. It calls on states to refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition and notes different views and assessments of the situation. Not surprisingly, Russia hailed the unexpectedly soft...

NATO enlargement enthusiasts look to the Indo-Pacific

NATO enlargement enthusiasts look to the Indo-Pacific

Lord Ismay, NATOs first secretary-general (SG), famously said the purpose of NATO was to keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down.

The Wagner coup: Strategic setback or military deception?

The Wagner coup: Strategic setback or military deception?

The Wagner coup equation doesnt compute. It just doesnt add up.Herbert Wulfgave us a concise summary of the surreal 24 hours that gripped the world. But there are missing pieces of the puzzle that we havent been given.And now we learn that theWagner boss is back in St Petersburg, Russia.

U.S. allies look for their place in the emerging global order

U.S. allies look for their place in the emerging global order

America and the West are more isolated from the rest of the world than at any time since WWII.

Four nuclear myths

Four nuclear myths

The hubris and arrogance of the nuclear-armed states leaves the world exposed to the risk of sleepwalking into a nuclear disaster. The case for nuclear weapons rests on a superstitious magical Realism that puts faith in the utility of the bomb and the theory of deterrence. Here are four myths about the utility of nuclear weapons.

Nuclear weapons may not be in Seouls best interest

Nuclear weapons may not be in Seouls best interest

Going nuclear would likely hurt rather than enhance South Koreas global prestige.

NATOs mission creep remains a threat to European and world peace

NATOs mission creep remains a threat to European and world peace

In September 2014, in the aftermath of the Maidan coup that saw yet another in the distressingly long list of US-engineered regime change coups in foreign lands where the government proved insufficiently deferential to the ruling Washington foreign policy elite, I argued that NATOs mission creep had become a threat to European and world peace. The article was published in The Japan Times on 9 September 2014 and reprinted in Pearls and Irritations on 29 October 2016.

The minefields that could sink AUKUS SSNs

The minefields that could sink AUKUS SSNs

The most consequential aspect of AUKUS is it embeds the UK and the US firmly into Australias Indo-Pacific strategy. But what if the secret US calculation behind AUKUS is to goad China into war before Chinas superiority outpaces US and allied capabilities? A war that China does not want and will likely lose?

Australia is an important Quad partner that India cannot trust

Australia is an important Quad partner that India cannot trust

Despite flourishing relations, Australia is governed by a ruling elite whose commitment to a rules based order is suspect, selective and risks dragging India into a catastrophic conflict with China.

What are the possible endgames in the Ukraine war?

What are the possible endgames in the Ukraine war?

Prudent nations would do well to prepare for peace even in the midst of an armed conflict.

Whats not to like about Rudds appointment as Canberras man in Washington?

Whats not to like about Rudds appointment as Canberras man in Washington?

On Dec. 20, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the appointment of former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd as his countrys next ambassador to the U.S.

The mystery of the Nord Stream pipeline explosions

The mystery of the Nord Stream pipeline explosions

On 26 September, the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines were badly damaged in a deliberate act of sabotage that released huge amounts of methane gas. Almost all the Western media has pointed the finger at Russia but Moscow blames actors hostile to it. There are four plausible suspects: Russia, the US, Poland and Ukraine. Given the actors involved, the issues at stake and the impotence of the UN system caught in the crossfire of great power rivalry, an impartial independent investigation is extremely unlikely. In classic thrillers style, its worth looking at means, opportunity and, most revealingly, motive.

Gorbachev changed the world

Gorbachev changed the world

Most people have modest aspirations of being able to feed, house, clothe and educate their families, assist their children to climb one rung higher on the social ladder and spend their autumn years in comfortable retirement. Some aim a little higher and strive to make a mark in a chosen field of human activity. There are very few of whom it can be said: they changed the world.

Learning the right nuclear lessons from Ukraine

Learning the right nuclear lessons from Ukraine

The Hiroshima gathering affirms the importance of nuclear arms control and disarmament.

Modi and the polarisation of India

Modi and the polarisation of India

Modi must reverse the sectarian polarisation, rein in the hate-spewing Hindutva mobs and practice as well as preach inclusion.

The journey from nuclear non-proliferation to prohibition and disarmament: roadmaps, roadblocks and speedbumps

The journey from nuclear non-proliferation to prohibition and disarmament: roadmaps, roadblocks and speedbumps

This is the text of the address delivered by Ramesh Thakur at the launch ofThe Nuclear Ban Treaty: A Transformational Reframing of the Global Nuclear Order(Routledge, 2022) at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation on Friday, 24 June 2022.

Truth - the first casualty of war

Truth - the first casualty of war

Wars are complex issues with blame shared albeit not equally distributed among all sides. They are unpredictable and can lead to perverse, including lose-lose outcomes. In a war with the worlds biggest nuclear power, a dispassionate analysis of costs (of victory and defeat), risks and constraints is especially advisable. Yet this is mostly missing in the one-eyed mainstream media (MSM) framing of the Ukraine war: Russia bad, West good; Putin evil, Zelensky superhero. Almost all coverage falls into one of three categories: the heroism and valour of Ukrainians; a Russian column, tank or ship destroyed; and Russian atrocities. Although all...

Russian and US parallel pathways to a nuclear conflict

Russian and US parallel pathways to a nuclear conflict

Biden escaped rigorous critical scrutiny that is the normal lot of presidential campaigns with the help of major media and Big Tech platforms that despised Trump. The world is now discovering just how grave the real-world consequences can be when reality bites back.

The tale of two airlines, Iranian Air IR 655 and Malaysian Air MH 17 and double standards

The tale of two airlines, Iranian Air IR 655 and Malaysian Air MH 17 and double standards

While in Iranian territorial waters, USS Vincennes fired two surface-to-air missiles to bring down the Iranian plane with the loss of all 290 on board on 3 July 1988. The captain and crew of the Vincennes were later awarded medals. Vice President George H W Bush insisted he would never apologise for the United States I dont care what the facts are.

Putin's actions in Ukraine are vile, but Russia was sorely provoked by NATO

Putin's actions in Ukraine are vile, but Russia was sorely provoked by NATO

The moral outrage insisting on retaliation over the invasion of Ukraine ennobles the American war machine.

Ukraine and nuclear risks

Ukraine and nuclear risks

Three overarching goals have informed the Asia Pacific Leadership Network's (APLN) approach to nuclear threats since its inception a decade ago: the imperative to hold firm against proliferation, the matching importance of credible steps toward disarmament, and defusing geopolitical tensions that heighten nuclear risks. All three are at play in Ukraine.

The slide to war with Russia. Part 1 & 2...First posted on October 26, 2016

The slide to war with Russia. Part 1 & 2...First posted on October 26, 2016

God Created war so the Americans could learn geography

Putin may be executing NATO's 1999 playbook, not Hitler's from the 1930's

Putin may be executing NATO's 1999 playbook, not Hitler's from the 1930's

The brutal reality is NATO played hardball, won in the short term but now finds itself at the receiving end as Putin decides its payback time.

False flag meets fake news: The Ukrainian invasion that wasn't

False flag meets fake news: The Ukrainian invasion that wasn't

Organisations like NATO never die, but reinvent themselves to keep growing.

Indias suspect Quad credentials

Indias suspect Quad credentials

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modis carefully cultivated competence bubble has been punctured by his government's ineffectiveness amid the second wave of the COVID-19 virus that has ravaged his country.

India's Coronavirus emergency tells a story poorly understood

India's Coronavirus emergency tells a story poorly understood

The blanket and punitive travel ban for Australians returning from India is neither justified, nor does it make much sense in the efforts to curb the spreading of the virus. The Indian Coronavirus emergency is also raising many questions of the policies imposed around the world during the pandemic.

China's geopolitical reach extends to Iran

China's geopolitical reach extends to Iran

After an attack on its main nuclear facility in Natanz on 11 April, quite likely by Israel, President Hasan Rouhani said that Iran will begin enriching uranium to 60 per cent. From a technical point of view, that would put Iran within a short sprint to full-fledged weapon-grade (90 per cent) uranium enrichment.

The Irrepressibles tame the Invincibles in their impregnable fortress

A transformative cricket series will do more to strengthen AustraliaIndia bonds than any amount of public diplomacy.

The ScoMosa Summit

The value of personal diplomacy was on display in the Morrison-Modi Summit last week quickly dubbed the ScoMosa summit after some culinary Twitter banter between the leaders.But the virtual dialogue had great substance, paving the way for closer bilateral relations against the backdrop of a more aggressive China and less reliable US.

Lockdown mea culpa: Norway sets an example

On 5 May, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health published an important report on Norways experience of dealing with the Coronavirus crisis. The text that follows is a verbatim extract of the equivalent of the executive summary from the report, using Google translation.

Lets learn from this pandemic to be better prepared for the really big one

On 26 May, Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy said if Australias mortality rate matched the UKs, wed have had 14,000 Covid-19 deaths. This is just tautological rubbish. It would be just as true and equally pointless to say if Australias mortality rate matched Vietnams, wed have zero deaths.

A great documentary from Canada on the Iraq War

I strongly encourage all readers of Pearls and Irritations to watch this remarkable new documentary from the National Film Board of Canada on PM Jean Chretien's decision to say no to the Iraq War in 2003.

The rise and fall of coronavirus modelling

Will the Great Lockdowns epitaph be The Greatest Mistake in History?

Coronavirus data prove Australia is in Asia

Cross-jurisdiction comparisons are notoriously difficult and its almost impossible to prove lockdowns have saved lives, except by falling back tautologically on the epidemiological models own projections of mortality figures with no lockdown.

Scapegoating the WHO as the CHO (Japan Times 4.5.20)

Now is not the time to demonize and defund the WHO

The Coronavirus Derby

And the winner is

Sound the Trumpists: The deputy sheriff rides again Part Three: Goading the dragon

Cockwomblette: A neologism coined to describe the lesser antipodean cousin of the cockwomble (see Mondays Part One). Its natural habitat is the bush capital of the world; the inheritor of an obsequious line of deputy sheriffs.

Sound the Trumpists: The deputy sheriff rides again Part Two: India and Australia

Consider the case of India. What exactly does social distancing elegant as it is as an abstract concept mean in practice in Indian conditions, a country of 1.3bn people with a population density of 464 per km2 compared to 153 in China?

Sound the Trumpists: The deputy sheriff rides again Part One: The global landscape

Cockwomble: A person, usually male, prone to making outrageously stupid statements and/or engaging in inappropriate behaviour while generally having a very high opinion of their own wisdom and importance. Presently exemplified by Agent Orange who dwells in the casa blanca in the geopolitical capital of the world and is the inheritor of a long line of global sheriffs.

BRUCE W. JENTLESON. Compete with China, but No New Cold War

The balance to be struck is to confront China as warranted, compete as necessary, and cooperate when possible

Pandemics and the G20: One last shot at relevance

The pandemic has starkly highlighted the inadequacy of current governance arrangements. In a world in which all politics is stubbornly local but most big-ticket problems are global, the G20 is uniquely placed to bridge the global governance gap.

<