Ramesh Thakur

Ramesh Thakur is emeritus professor at the Australian National University and a former United Nations Assistant Secretary-General. Of Indian origin, he is a citizen of Canada, New Zealand and Australia.

Ramesh's recent articles

NICOLA NYMALM. Washingtons old Japan problem and the current China threat (East Asia Forum 11 Sep)

In April 2019, Kiron Skinner former directorof policy planning at the US State Department described Washingtons new China strategy as built on the understanding that the current clash with Beijing is a fight with a different civilization and a different ideology and the United States hasnt had that before. With China,Skinner proposes thatits the first time that [the United States] will have a great power competitor that is not Caucasian. Her comments were widely interpreted as referring to Samuel Huntingtons Clash of Civilizations.

CLINTON FERNANDES. Worried about agents of foreign influence? Just look at who owns Australias biggest companies (Conversation 12-9-19)

The attention being given to possible covert influence being exercised by China in Australia shouldnt distract us from recognising that very overt foreign influence now occurs through investment.

TIMOTHY L. O'BRIEN. Trump Is Cornered by the Saudi Drone Attacks (Bloomberg 16-9-19)

Regarding the drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities, writes the executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion: Not everyone is telling the truth here (although everyone might think they are) and any prudent response to the attacks hinges on more factual certainty.

GEORGE GRUNDY. Already Gone

As the Democratic field narrows and the political commentariat speculate which candidate is best placed to defeat Donald Trump in 2020, Americas national conversation continues to ignore an elephant in the room the profound threat to democracy posed by this irascible, irrational president. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are auditioning for a role they may never be allowed to play.

MOUIN RABBANI. Jerusalem and the Trump administration

In December 2017, the administration of U.S. president Donald Trump upended seventy years of U.S. policy by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. In doing so, it also effectively recognized Israels sovereignty over the city.

JOHN ENGLISH. Canada goes to the polls: It cant happen here.

Looking south as Canadians must and can do invariably provokes the comment, It cant happen here. But it already has. While Donald Trump certainly cannot be replicated, the nativist, populist, and authoritarian tendencies of American Republicans have often appeared in Canada.

Kashmir: the international dimension (Strategist 10 Sep 2019)

Indias decision last month to revoke Kashmirs autonomy and statehood, break it into two union territories and merge them fully with the Indian union caught everyone unawares. The changes give effect to theBharatiya Janata Partys vision of Indiaas one nation and one people under one constitution. Indians have reacted with jubilation (majority), concern at the lack of consultation and the military lockdown in Kashmir (many), and criticism of the threat to Kashmirs cultural identity, especially if Indias sole Muslim-majority statesdemographic balanceis altered (minority).

TSUYOSHI MINAMI. Are Japan and China really getting along? (East Asia Forum 7 Sep 2019)

Following the 2019 Osaka G20 summit, JapanChina relations appear to have entered a new period. While improved JapanChina ties are in the national interests of both countries, the ongoing US trade war with China is beginning to have significant effects on the relationship. Can Japan and China continue to improve relations? What benefits does this rapprochement offer the two countries?

WASHINGTON POST Editorial Board. John Boltons legacy: Chaos, dysfunction and no meaningful accomplishment (11-9-19)

Apparently Mr. Bolton was pickedbecauseMr. Trump had enjoyed watching him on television. The result was to compound the chaos that has characterized the administrations foreign policy and left Mr. Trump without meaningful accomplishments.

FLAVIA BELLIENI ZIMMERMANN. Lulas Interview in the Light of the Amazon Fires (Australian Outlook, 3 Sep 2019)

Brazils far-right president Jair Bolsonaro made international headlines for all the wrong reasons. He publicly denied reports released by Brazils Space Agency (INPE), which indicated a steady rise in the Amazons deforestation, and then subsequently sacked the institutes director Professor Ricardo Magnus Osorio Galvao. Bolsonaro replaced Professor Galvao with a former Airforce officer. The Brazilian president argued holding suspicion that Professor Galvao was acting on behalf of some environmental NGO. Then raging wildfires started sweeping through the Amazons rainforest, confirming INPEs satellite evidence and fears of illegal logging, encroaching crop and livestock farming, gold mining and illegal occupations of Amazons...

TROY BAISDEN. New Zealand launches plan to revive the health of lakes and rivers (The Conversation 6 Sep)

New Zealands government released a plan to reverse the decline of iconic lakes and rivers this week. It proposes higher standards for water quality, interim controls on land intensification and a higher bar on ecosystem health.

COLIN BROWN. The Indonesia-Australia Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA): A Game Changer? (Australian Outlook, 5 Sep 2019)

Despite their geographical proximity, Australia and Indonesia are minor trading partners. In 2018, Australian merchandise exports to Indonesia were valued at just $6,823 million, and imports from Indonesia $4,996 million. Trade in services was smaller still, as the exports to Indonesia were worth $1,697 and imports were worth $4,068 million. Neither country is in the others top 10 trading partners.

ANTHONY ALBANESE. Tribute to Graham Freudenberg (House of Representatives 10 Sep 2019)

Graham Freudenberg climbed inside the soul of the Australian Labor Party in search of the words that lay there. He came back to us with an entire language. When Freudy said the Labor Party was built on speeches, the identity of the master builder was never a mystery to the rest of us. He spoke to us in so many voices, but in each of them he spoke with clarity and power. He moved us, he persuaded us and, in a world where words barely outlast the moment in which they are spoken, he made us remember.

RAGHURAM G. RAJAN. The True Toll of the Trade War (Project Syndicate, 5 Sep 2019)

Another day, another attack on trade. Why is it that every dispute whether over intellectual property (IP), immigration, environmental damage, or war reparations now produces new threats to trade?

DOMINIC O'SULLIVAN. Indigenous people no longer have the legal right to say no to the Adani mine - heres what it means for equality (The Conversation, 5 Sep 2019)

Last week, the Queensland government extinguished native title over tracts of land in the Galilee Basin so the Adani coal mine could proceed.

YVES TIBERGHIEN. Belt and Road Summit in Hong Kong: Toward a BRI 2.0? (Australian Outlook, 5 Sep 2019)

From 11 to 12 September 2019, the fourth Edition of the Hong Kong Belt and Road Summit is due to take place at the Wanchai Convention Center. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is now in its sixth year since its original launch in fall 2013 refers to the massive mobilisation effort led by China to accelerate connectivity and trade in Eurasia, and also in Africa and Latin America through massive infrastructure investment and other exchanges. It is mostly funded by Chinese development and industrial banks.

HENRY LITTON. Joshua Wong article in Australian 2 Sep

Joshua Wong, in his article in The Australian of 2 September, made a valid point when he asked rhetorically who were the ones who did not give young people a stake in society ?

PEPE ESCOBAR. Welcome to the Indo-Russia maritime Silk Road (Asia Times, 5 Sep 2019)

Theres no way to follow the complex inner workings of the Eurasia integration process without considering what takes place annually at theEastern Economic Forumin Vladivostok.

Congresss choice: Does it want to go for a Gandhi-mukt Congress or a Congress-mukt Bharat? (Times of India 31.8.2019)

Urgent appeal to save nuclear agreements (Japan Times 25-8-19)

HIROSHIMA The Hiroshima Round Table held its seventh annual meeting last Wednesday and Thursday. For the first time, in recognition of the uniquely dangerous international security environment since the dawn of the atomic age in this beautiful city, the Round Table issued an urgent appeal to maintain existing nuclear arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation pacts and to build on them in order to deepen strategic stability. The Hiroshima Urgent Appeal, signed by all participants with the exception of those whose institutions preclude individual officials signing any public appeals, was in addition to the regular chairmans summary that covers all...

Cardinal Pells guilty verdict is deeply troubling

In 2017, Cardinal George Pell became the highest ranking Catholic Church official to be charged with sex offences as Archbishop of Melbourne (19962001). His first trial produced a 10-2 hung jury in favour of acquittal. In the second trial, on 11 December 2018 he was convicted of five charges of sexually assaulting two boys in a sacristy of St. Pauls Cathedral, Melbourne in 1996 on two separate occasions. On 21 August Victorias Court of Appeal upheld the conviction by a split 2-1 decision.

Tongue firmly in cheek: Does the world have a responsibility to protect American victims of atrocities?

George Mickhail did us all a great service by noting the vast disparity in forceful response to protestors by the police forces of France against the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests), and those of Hong Kong against the anti-China protestors. The French are clearly well ahead of the Hong Kong authorities in the brutality stakes but its the latter who draw widespread condemnation in the Western media. This is but yet another explanation why the Western media has destroyed its credibility in the non-Western world. See the hostility of the government and the indifference of the masses to Western media criticisms...

Kashmir: the battleground that will shape the fate of India (CapX 15-8-19)

On 5 August, the governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fulfilled a founding ambition and repeated election promise: they ended Kashmirs unique status in Indias federal structure by scrapping Article 370 of the Constitution.

A nuclear world in disarray. (The Strategist 7.8.2019)

We are in a uniquely dangerous period in the atomic age. Geopolitical tensions have spiked in Europe, in the Middle East, on the subcontinent and in East Asia. The nuclear arms control architecture is fraying and crumbling, but no negotiations are underway to reduce global nuclear stockpiles.

The US Killed INF, Russia Buried It, China Will Not Disinter It (Australian Outlook 8-8-19)

The end of the first disarmament agreement of the nuclear age will almost certainly be accompanied by American pressure on allies to host US intermediate range missiles.

Indias Bad Bet in Kashmir (Project Syndicate 7-8-19)

The combination of surging Hindu nationalism in India, Kashmiri grievances against Indias government, Pakistan-backed jihadist groups waging hybrid warfare in Indian Kashmir, the new normal of Indias retaliatory military strikes on Pakistan, and growing nuclear stockpiles has turned Kashmir into a tinderbox. Indias decision to withdraw Kashmirs special status threatens to be the spark that ignites it.

The cup that slipped: Here are some cricket lessons my country of citizenship can teach my country of origin (Times of India 3-8-19)

As an Indian, after the semi-final loss in the Cricket World Cup, an old refrain from a 1948 song entered my head: Ek dil ke tukde hazaar huye (one heart shattered into a thousand shards). As a Kiwi, after the finals loss, came the second line: Koyi yahan gira, koyi wahan gira (some fell hither, some thither). Yes, a match for the ages! But oh, arent the ICC geniuses who chose the worst possible option for deciding the championship in case of a tie certifiably stupid? Englands triumph their first World Cup victory had its beginnings immediately after...

Boris Johnsons Reticence on UK Ambassador was Responsible and Mature.

Johnsons judicious refusal to be baited will give him the political space to begin repairing bruised relations with the White House and its tweet-prone cantankerous occupant.

Professor White, the bomb can endanger but not defend Australia.

Nuclear weapons have dubious operational utility and discarding treaty obligations would leave the stench of hypocrisy.

Trumps strategic incoherence on India policy Part 2

In an editorial to mark Secretary of State Mike Pompeos recent visit, The Times of Indiaalluded to US policy incoherence in urging Washington to make up its mind between dealing with India asan ally or a frenemy. Earlier, in February Washington broke from its traditional non-committal stance on IndiaPakistan skirmishes toside openly with Indias narrativeon the Pulwama militant attack and retaliatory missile strikes on Balakot. This was followed by thesuccessful pressure on China to lift its hold on designating Pakistan-based Masood Azhar as a global terrorist.

Trumps strategic incoherence on India policy Part 1

The distance from hubris to delusion is short and the Trump administration is bent on covering it in a sprint in its India policy.Diffuse reciprocityis the diplomatic glue that holds international relationships together.A healthy and long-lasting bilateral relationship rests upon a history of shared interests and values that embody common expectations, reciprocity, and equivalence of benefits across different domains rather than equal benefits in every single sector individually.

Trumps disdain for Japan is insulting and high-risk

In his forays abroad, US President Donald Trump increasingly resembles a bull carrying his own china shop on his back, to be set down for wrecking at diplomatic confabs. At the moment a grave crisis seems imminent with regard to Iran. As former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer notes, soon Trump will come to a fork in the road to Tehran where he must choose between: a diplomatic climbdown on his impossible demands; or a war with Iran with regional and long-term consequences far worse than the terrible damage wrought by the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Either will...

Folau saga: when employers and sponsors become the thought police

Like Paul Collins, I am destined for Israel Folaus version of hell on multiple counts of sin. Indeed I will be even deeper in it since I have repeatedly, over several decades, refused to embrace the love and salvation offered by Jesus Christ despite countless missionaries and proselytisers pleading with me to do so and renounce my Hindu heathenism. Given the contrasting pictures painted of heaven and hell, I look forward to sharing hells pleasures with Paul while the devout enjoy the tedium of life in heaven.

Modi vs who? The question needed a clear answer in a quasi-presidential contest (The Times of India)

No Bihari political scientist can possibly understate the importance of caste and religion in shaping the electoral contest. However, there is one other factor that is of growing importance. In all parliamentary democracies across the world, including Australia, power is being centralised in the office of the PM. PMs, including Narendra Modi, increasingly resemble and act like presidents more than the textbook first among equals (primus inter pares). This also turns general elections in parliamentary democracies into quasi-presidential contests.

Press freedoms: No one is above the law is a slogan, not a policy

On the one hand, Australia lacks media protections of the type found in the US and Europe that enshrine free speech in human rights charters. On the other hand, we may well have more national-security and anti-terror laws than any other Western democracy, with around 70 passed or amended since the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. The resulting repressive legal regime gives the executive wide-ranging powers to hide any damaging or embarrassing information by classifying it as secret, and simultaneously to criminalise investigative journalism.

Tiananmen anniversary revisited

Readers of my generation will recall the horror story told to the US Congressional Human Rights Caucus on 10 October 1990 by a 15-year old Kuwaiti girl. Nayirah claimed to have witnessed invading Iraqi troops storming a Kuwaiti hospital, ripping 15 babies out of incubators and leaving them to die on the cold floor. On 19 December 1990, an 84-page report by Amnesty International concluded: 300 premature babies were reported to have died after Iraqi soldiers removed them from incubators, which were then looted. The Amnesty story and Nayirahs testimony were widely circulated around the world and used as a...

Indias 2019 elections

In the most polarising, toxic elections in Indias history, the voter turnout of (67.1% (604 million) was the highest ever. Fierce social media wars contributed to the nastiness. It is hard to say whether political discourse was coarsened more by PM Narendra Modi or his opponents.

Labor must look in the mirror

In foreshadowing Donald Trumps victory six months before the 2016 election, I had written: Of all the candidates in both parties, Trumps appeal seems to reach the broadest and deepest with respect to region, class, education and income... They are looking for an in-your-face champion who will stick it to the snobs (elites) and scolds (political correctness warriors). Labor was guilty of the same mindset as Hillary Clintons disastrous comment on the basket of deplorables and reflected a similar hubris. The same hubris was obvious in Bill Shortens response that asking for costings of climate action policies was dumb.

Sanctions a follow-up

Several people have written seeking clarification and explanation of some of my arguments in my previous article on sanctions, published here on Friday 10 May. The academic literature on the success and effectiveness of sanctions is in something of a mess, for a number of reasons.

Killing them softly with sanctions

For three years Washington has been consumed by charges of Russian interference in the last US presidential election. In the latest sign that the Trump administration doesnt do irony, on Tuesday Vice President Mike Pence threatened Venezuelan judges with unspecified consequences if they refused to back opposition leader Juan Gaid, while lifting sanctions on a general who broke with President Nicols Maduro. Thus Washington proclaims the right to choose other countries leaders and to reward and punish military officers and judges who genuflect and object to US diktat.

Australias ChinaUS choice is three dimensional, not binary (Part 2)

By framing the choice as a binary one, most Australian analysts typically explain the threat from China as including its challenge to the rules-based international order. This has been true, for example, of several recent defence and foreign policy white papers. A major advantage of framing Australias foreign policy dilemma as three-dimensional is that it allows us to grasp how threats to our interests and values along the third dimension can come from both China and the US. Thus in 2013 China rejected the ruling of the international arbitration court in its maritime territorial dispute with the Philippines.

Australias ChinaUS choice is three dimensional, not binary (Part 1)

RAMESH THAKUR. Australias ChinaUS choice is three dimensional, not binary (Part 1) As ChinaUS tensions rise, Australias dilemma is almost always debated in terms of the competing gravitational pulls between China as its most important trading partner and the US as its ultimate security guarantor. This depiction of Australias primary current foreign policy dilemma as a binary choice is false. In reality, Australias dilemma is not two but three dimensional: trade,security and a rules-based order.

The next clash between India and Pakistan (Japan Times 2.4.2019)

For many years, I have argued in these pages that the Indian subcontinent and the Korean Peninsula are among the least unlikely theaters of a nuclear war. The known consequences of a nuclear war mean a deliberate policy decision to go to war is highly unlikely in either theater. But there are different dynamics at play in South and East Asia for an inadvertent nuclear war through an escalation spiral that can be triggered by a minor event, including miscommunication, flawed intelligence, system error or misperception of red lines.

Who Will Bell the Sydney Airport Security Madness?

Is it possible that pranksters with a perverse sense of humour are in charge of security procedures at Sydney International Airport? Perhaps they are trying to test the limits of traveller tolerance. If so, they might be close to succeeding with me. I am slowly approaching the tipping point where either I will break and risk a confrontation or else I will abandon international travel, at least via Sydney. I say this as someone of reasonable intelligence and exceptionally wide international travel experience as a frequent traveller and therefore someone who is very heavily invested in safe flights.

New Zealands Loss of Innocence (Project Syndicate, 17 March 2019)

Like the assassination of Olof Palme in Sweden in 1986, the 9/11 attacks in the US, and the murderous rampage of Anders Breivik in Norway in 2011, March 15 will mark the day New Zealand lost its innocence and entered the age of postmodern mass terror. Fortunately, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's response has so far been pitch perfect.

Indias General Election: A Preview

This article previews Indias forthcoming general election on three dimensions. First, I describe Indias election machinery and logistics, something that Australia could learn a lot from if it were not for the embedded subconscious racism that rejects the very possibility of an advanced white democracy learning from a poor Asian developing country. Second, I outline the issues that are likely to dominate the campaign over the next two months. And finally, I look at the state of play at the moment with regard to the prospects of the two competing coalitions.

Indias Trifecta of Failure (Project Syndicate).

With a general election approaching, India's government is planning a further extension of caste-based quotas in schools and public-sector jobs. This is typical of the two main parties' tendency to choose the path of least political resistance and defer deep reforms.

Trump-Kim summitry a work in progress (Japan Times, 1 March 2019)

CANBERRA - The cameras are gone, the lights have dimmed, the scribes have filed their reports and returned home and Hanoi has faded from host of a potentially life-and-death summit to being merely the capital of a booming Southeast Asian country. Attention will now turn fully to the simmering crisis in Kashmir.

What's next in India and Pakistan flareup ( Interview on NPR)

NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks with Ramesh Thakur of the Centre for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament at the Australian National University about the latest conflict between India and Pakistan.

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