Pearls and Irritations

We must recognise that over 50% of US voters have now elected Trump. The almost cult-like MAGA can no longer be regarded as an aberration. Countries like Australia now have to recognise just how this new US increasingly is becoming a “foreign” country.

Amid the deluge of instant commentary by arm chair quarterbacks and the emerging gaggle of aspiring lobbyists (including not a few former Australian politicians and senior officials), not to mention the many Trump Cabinet hopefuls and the long list of others seeking the myriad appointments Trump has promised, forecasting his policies on specific domestic or international issues is speculative at best.. Let alone trying to assess their likely implications ! So what can we work with ?

More than has been the case with previous Presidents , bolstered by how he performed in Trump 01, we know how he relishes the unpredictable while all too often paying scant attention to the truth and rejoicing in conspiracies. His public performances throughout the campaign reconfirmed his bullying technique as well as his foul mouthed boorishness and incoherence which have been so widely counterproductive for MAGA’s (Make America Great Again) mission in the international community.

But we must recognise that over 50% of US voters have now elected him and the almost cult-like MAGA can no longer be regarded as an aberration. Nor one that is likely to moderate much in the next 5 (and probably 10) years given the control he will have over the Congress, Supreme Court and elsewhere across the US. We now have to recognise just how this new US increasingly is becoming a “foreign” country which collectively we must understand much more comprehensively.

Sadly the early Pavlovian responses of Peter Dutton and some other senior politicians here just underline the urgency we must attach to avoiding outright copy catting of the US experience. It is so fundamentally different from our own. In the various international rankings of living standards etc Australia in 2024 lists well above the US. Our traditional bipartisan commitment to social welfare and public health (despite Medicare differences), a depoliticised judiciary, compulsory voting, gun laws and the “fair go” etc very clearly separate us from the US. For which we will have to work even harder to maintain given the increasing inroads into our sovereignty which we have now allowed the US security and military agencies.

We must also recognise that with the very term MAGA Trump has highlighted accurately the steady and progressive decline of US global influence – but unsurprisingly avoided acknowledging that this has occurred in Administrations of both political hues (including Trump 01) despite all their propaganda to the contrary. Certainly Biden and Blinken are not leaving him much of a hand after their failures especially in both the Ukraine and Gaza. To correct the oft quoted “political power but not necessarily influence grows out of the barrel of a gun” describes the mayhem on the international scene which now confronts Trump. How he decides to approach this will depend on a variety of factors.

First and most obviously will be the experience and talent of his advisers and equally his acceptance of what they have to offer. His close coterie is not renowned for its international experience but Project 25 may contribute. His well publicised criticism of the security and intelligence agencies as well as the senior military and Defense staffs and their reported widespread replacement will take time to settle down. As also the new Secretaries of State and Defense with their own agendas (?). But given Trump’s style, Elon Musk and other senior corporates (again, with their own business agendas) could well play key roles on some specific areas.

In the end, it is more likely that his own predilections may count most. Foremost among these are his personal delusions of grandeur to strut the global stage with summitry revived – especially with Putin and Xi. He also will want to emphasise his transactional style in contrast to Biden and Blinken whose legacy objectively will not be very remarkable – even less so on Israel and Gaza. As he did in Trump 01 on direct approaches to the Taliban in Afghanistan, Kim Jong-un in North Korea and even Xi – breaking with long established bipartisan policies which were going nowhere. He has highlighted frequently the priority of avoiding wars – and the defence costs involved and his addiction to punitive sanctions and tariffs rather than bullets in resolving issues.

So, cutting deals rather than alliance building is more his style and he has promised that Ukraine would be the first cab off the rank. Already the world is watching as Trump and Putin begin sparring through the media – though we are told that Putin has yet actually to speak to Trump. In the campaign Trump and Vance set out some guidelines for a quick settlement of the Ukraine conflict and Trump spoke to a thin lipped Zelensky in New York. This seemed to indicate Trump’s acceptance of the need for concessions on both sides to obtain at least a ceasefire. In his public comments on the elections, Putin was praiseworthy of Trump’s handling of the attempted assassination, open to discussions with Trump on the Ukraine but set in the context of a new international order. Not unexpectedly, Trump’s quick fix through a deal quarantined to the actual Ukraine crisis (which he could ram through Zelensky and NATO) is under challenge.

Any widening of the Ukraine issue in response to Putin could quickly spread to wider and more complicated issues such as the withdrawal of North Korean troops from Russia, controlling NATO (and our) support for Zelensky and freezing any possible NATO membership for Ukraine etc. Xi would need to be involved too.

All of which, in turn, could lead even to the growing pressure from BRICS for changes to the international order to better reflect the national interest of its members. After its recent expansion, BRICS contains 46% of the world population, 30% of the world GDP, 25% of world exports and 43% of world oil. they want some say in how the international order can protect them from the havoc Trump seems determined to wreak on the world economy through even more US isolationism and exceptionalism via tariffs and sanctions. The list of those wanting to join BRICS grows – now including Indonesia and almost all of ASEAN as the. folly of an Asian NATO becomes more obvious.

A deal to solve the Middle East to settle the Israel: Palestine conflict and reinforce the start of the Abraham arrangements will probably still be dear to Trump’s heart. But it is difficult to see this making any headway with Netanyahu to whom he has given a green light to “finish” Gaza. This could get sorely tested if the Saudis continue to insist on a ceasefire before any improvement of the Abraham arrangements. The Chinese also continue to make headway in patching up the Saudi: Iran relationship (both in BRICS now).

For Australia, the message from the above is to “Be Prepared” to defend our own national interests for whatever policy Trump seeks to pursue. Working with the new Trump administration likely will be a hard slog but there could well be some opportunities opening in any widening of the global debate on the international order. More generally such a global discussion and any movement down the “no wars” track could reduce the pressures now being revealed on Australia essentially becoming the big US military base in the IndoPacific.

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