British elections

Jul 10, 2023
British flag, Big Ben and Houses of Parliament. London.

It is as certain as any future event can be that the British Labour Party will win the next UK election, which is likely to be held in the latter part of 2024.

It is technically possible that the election could be delayed until January 2025 but it is hard to imagine the government choosing to campaign over Christmas.

The combination of factors which make this result all but inevitable go beyond a simple reading of the polling data.

The polling data as shown in the Politico poll-of- polls shows the Labour Party in an extraordinarily strong position The support has been strong for more than twelve months. Of course, the support for Labour shot up as a consequence of Liz Truss’s extremely short but disastrous tenure as PM. While it has improved a little for the Tories since then the support for the British Labour Party remains very strong.

The latest Politico poll- of-polls suggests the Labour Party has a 46 per cent to 27 per cent lead over the Conservative Party. This represents a 14 per cent improvement over the Labour Party’s miserable 2019 result.

In addition, the corruption controversy around the SNP in Scotland suggests that Labour will win back a significant number of seats in Scotland.

The most recent polling I have seen of national election voting intentions in Scotland suggests Labour and the SNP are tied on 34per cent each. This would mean a 15 per cent improvement for Labour on their 2019 performance.

The “Red Wall” of previously safe Labour Party seats in the North of England which were lost so disastrously in 2019 appear to be reverting to pre-Boris/ Brexit levels as the Tories fail to deliver the promised support to the North, Boris disappears into the wilderness, Brexit fades as an issue and the Labour Party presents a more acceptable face to many traditional Labour voters.

The combined effect of all these factors, when taken with an apparently tired and divided government, makes it clear that unless they score an astoundingly bad own goal the Labour Party must win.

The steady leadership style of Keir Starmer, like that of Anthony Albanese before the last Australian election, should be enough for a clear win for the Labour Party.

The current Prime Minister, Rushi Sunak, appears competent but does not seem to have the ability to establish a rapport with the “Red Wall” voters or to recover lost ground in other areas. He is also continually being undermined by Boris Johnson’s supporters and faces several difficult by-elections.

Reports from the UK, particularly with regard to Prime Minister’s questions, suggest Starmer and his deputy, Angela Rayner, have the measure of Sunak and his deputy.

It all points to a strong result for Labour, and the recent Local Government elections reinforce that view.

In fact, the Election Predictor model suggests a sweeping landslide.

The most recent prediction, based on polling essentially the same as that from Politico, indicated that if the current numbers were reflected at a General election the result would be Labour 475 seats (an increase of 273), Conservatives 100 (a loss of 265), SNP 28  (a loss of 20) and Liberal Democrats 23 (a gain of 12).

It is hard to believe that the final result could be as extreme as the Predictor suggests, but it is equally hard to imagine a scenario under which Keir Starmer does not become Prime Minister with a solid majority by the end of next year..

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