Carbon budget blown, only 50% chance 1.5 degrees
Aug 19, 2024
As greenhouse emissions accumulate each year and linger for decades in the atmosphere, effectively adding another layer of climate warming ‘blankets’ on the globe, it chews up our carbon ‘budget’ available to reach the Paris 2015 agreement target of 1.5 degree warming. I discuss this with David McKewan, director, adaptive capability, net zero program and project management consultancy, and author of ‘The Adaptive Economy‘.
The global carbon budget in 2024 to keep to under 1.5 degrees was a total of 150 b tonnes cumulative, while the current annual rate of global emissions is at about 40 b tonnes pa.
At this rate the budget and target are well blown and will be reached within four years by 2028. ‘net zero emissions targets’ set for much later dates, even if achieved, will not avoid temperature overshoot on the way to 2.0 degrees.
Net zero plans, targets and actions are grossly inadequate, including in Australia, with only an even chance at best of keeping within 1.5 degrees by 2030.
Listen to the full podcast here:
Republished from Mix Cloud, August 2024
Michael Lester is a public policy economist with a career in Commonwealth and State agencies, World Bank and OECD. His interests include innovation, environment, and governance. He presents programs on community radio.
David McKewan
David McEwen is a Director at Adaptive Capability, providing climate risk and net-zero strategy, program and project management. He works with businesses, community leaders, policy makers, designers and engineers to deliver impactful change. His book, Navigating the Adaptive Economy, was released in 2016.
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