Pearls and Irritations

Echoing the sentiment often associated with Calvin Coolidge, who famously said, ‘The chief business of the American people is business,’ the reasoning from a business perspective is straightforward: China delivers. Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory stands as a testament to this, producing hundreds of thousands of electric vehicles annually. Chinese firms like BYD and CATL lead in renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors, illustrating how partnerships with China are driven by practical needs rather than ideology. The 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer shows that confidence in Chinese firms, especially in tech and energy, is growing among business leaders, who prioritise results over political narratives.

This pragmatic approach to China is further supported by data. The Harvard Longitudinal Study, which tracks public satisfaction with the Chinese Government, found approval ratings rising from 86.1% in 2003 to 93.1% in 2016. These findings challenge the Western notion that neoliberalism is necessary for economic success, and reinforce the idea that business engagement with China is based on practical benefits, not ideological alignment.

In contrast, many Western political elites continue to frame China as a threat. They persist in portraying the nation as a monolithic adversary intent on undermining Western interests. This narrative oversimplifies China’s role in the global arena and fails to acknowledge the new reality of interdependence. Political leaders, caught in their own rhetoric of great power conflict, have long scapegoated China for domestic challenges, deflecting attention from internal issues such as rising inequality and declining public trust. The 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer suggests that trust in Western institutions is plummeting, a trend that won’t be reversed by blaming external actors like China.

Western political leaders are reluctant to embrace the commercial reality that the West needs China more than China needs the West. Clinging to Cold War-era binaries, they overlook opportunities for collaboration, particularly in areas like renewable energy, where China’s leadership offers potential for joint efforts in combating climate change. While businesses are eager to capitalise on these opportunities, political elites remain stuck in a mindset of strategic competition.

This misunderstanding of China’s stability exacerbates the divide. By framing China as a “regime” on the verge of collapse, Western leaders justify their resistance to constructive engagement. However, the Harvard study presents a clear refutation of this view, showing that Chinese citizens are overwhelmingly satisfied with their government, even more so than citizens in Western democracies.

The ongoing debate over whether China is a partner or rival reveals more about the West than it does about China. While business leaders are forging new partnerships, attracted by China’s efficiency, innovation, and vast market potential, political elites cling to outdated narratives of rivalry and fear. This ideological gap not only prevents meaningful re-alignment, but also blinds the West to the opportunities a collaborative relationship with China could offer.

The data is conclusive: China’s governance model enjoys broad domestic approval, and despite geopolitical tensions, global business partnerships with Chinese firms continue to grow. Meanwhile, Western institutions are facing their own crises of legitimacy, as trust in government and media declines amid rising inequality and governance failures.

Going forward, the West must recalibrate its approach to China, acknowledging the mutual interdependence that defines the global economy and recognising the practical opportunities for cooperation. Instead of resisting China’s rise, Western leaders should focus on how to adapt to this new reality. The future of global stability and progress lies not in opposition, but in embracing the potential for collaboration.

Appendix and references

The conclusions of this essay are strongly supported by the available evidence.

However, in light of the gravity of the subject I have formally referenced my key propositions below, substantiating them with direct evidence from both the Harvard Longitudinal Study and the 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer.

1. Business leaders see China as a key partner, not a threat

Reference: Edelman Trust Barometer 2023, p. 44: Trust in business and partnerships with China in the technology and renewable energy sectors remains high despite geopolitical tensions.

Reference: Harvard Longitudinal Study, Cunningham et al. (2020), p. 5: Chinese government viewed as competent by both domestic citizens and global business, strengthening trust in partnerships.

2. Western political elites are driven by fear of China

Reference: Harvard Longitudinal Study, Cunningham et al. (2020), p. 12: Chinese citizens’ satisfaction with their government refutes Western political fears of instability.

3. Western leaders use China as a scapegoat for internal failures

Reference: Edelman Trust Barometer 2023, p. 13: Western public trust in institutions like government and media is declining rapidly.

Reference: Harvard Longitudinal Study, Cunningham et al. (2020), p. 9: High satisfaction levels among Chinese citizens challenge Western narratives of internal decay in China.

4. The West needs China more than China needs the West

Reference: Edelman Trust Barometer 2023, p. 20: The Western business sector’s growing reliance on Chinese manufacturing and technology partnerships.

Reference: Harvard Longitudinal Study, Cunningham et al. (2020), p. 17: China’s role in global supply chains is crucial for Western economies.

5. Western elites miss opportunities for collaboration due to strategic competition

Reference: Edelman Trust Barometer 2023, p. 27: Businesses in Western countries increasingly favour collaboration with China in renewable energy sectors.

Reference: Harvard Longitudinal Study, Cunningham et al. (2020), p. 19: China’s leadership in renewable energy offers opportunities for global cooperation.

6. Western political elites are in denial or misinformed about China

Reference: Edelman Trust Barometer 2023, p. 9: Despite political rhetoric, public and business trust in China remains high.

Reference: Harvard Longitudinal Study, Cunningham et al. (2020), p. 8: Rising satisfaction among Chinese citizens with their government challenges the negative Western narrative of instability.

7. Western leaders face a crisis of legitimacy, not China

Reference: Edelman Trust Barometer 2023, p. 8: Trust in Western government institutions has fallen to historically low levels.

Reference: Harvard Longitudinal Study, Cunningham et al. (2020), p. 6: China’s government enjoys high domestic approval, contrary to the perception of fragility in Western narratives.

8. Western elites misunderstand China’s stability

Reference: Harvard Longitudinal Study, Cunningham et al. (2020), p. 12: Public satisfaction with the Chinese government increased from 86.1% in 2003 to 93.1% in 2016.

Reference: Edelman Trust Barometer 2023, p. 12: The stable business environment in China attracts global partnerships, further dispelling notions of instability.

9. China’s rise does not mean Western decline

Reference: Edelman Trust Barometer 2023, p. 30: Businesses recognise that China’s rise in sectors like renewable energy offers opportunities, not threats, for collaboration.

Reference: Harvard Longitudinal Study, Cunningham et al. (2020), p. 15: China’s rise in public satisfaction and global influence is based on stable governance, not at the expense of Western decline.

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