Recently, Freedom House, a non-profit organisation that assesses democracy freedom, and human rights, reported that globally democracy has been in decline for the past 18 years. Moreover, this has been most evident in the West. According to a study published by Rand Corporation, a U.S. government supported think tank, Asia is the only place in the world where “democracy scores” have improved.
Further, according to studies conducted by the well-known Pew Research Centre, residents of Asian countries report being satisfied with democracy versus being not satisfied by a 58 to 39 percent margin. In Europe the numbers are equal. The spread between Asia and Europe is even bigger when citizens are asked if their governments operate for the benefit of all or for a few.
Why has this happened?
In the late 1800s, Alexander Fraser Tytler, a professor at the University of Edinburgh, wrote that democracy is always temporary, and it goes through cycles: from bondage to spiritual faith, from faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy back to bondage.
He also asserted that citizens in countries in the late phases of democracy vote themselves gifts from the public treasury, which translates into corruption and loose fiscal policies that cause democracy to collapse to be followed by dictatorship.
He notes that the average life span of democracies is 200 years.
Other evidence confirms Tytler was correct…
First off, a country’s economic development was and is an essential contributing factor to building democracy and sustaining it. Good growth translates into both. Since Asian nations’ economic development has been more recent and more robust this means it is not so much a zero-sum game for its residents and is more equitable.
India, Asia’s (and the world’s biggest democracy) has recently seen GDP growth higher than any large or medium sized nation in the world at 7 percent yearly or better. Indonesia, the fourth most populous country in the world in 2023 grew at 5 percent—double the United States and close to 8-fold the European Union. Thus, the Asia-Pacific region, a new term for Asia, has been and remains economically the best performing region in the world.
Also, it is not just economic growth per se. It has had a secondary, but very critical, impact on democratic governance. It created a middle class that fancied political participation not present before. With prosperity the middle class among Indo-Pacific countries has grown almost exponentially.
In contrast to Asia, the U.S. and Europe are in Tytler’s democracy’s life cycle toward the end. Both are witnessing a contraction of their middle classes leading to palpable instability and inequality that do not comport with democracy functioning well.
Moreover, this will likely continue… Futureagenda.org reports that the Indo-Pacific area made up 28 percent of the world’s middle class in 2009 but 54 percent in 2020. It predicts it will constitute 66 percent in 2030.
Meanwhile, americancompass.org reports that income inequality has reduced the size of the middle class in America such that it is now the smallest since World War II and is about the same as Mexico and Costa Rica. It has become much more serious over the last 3 years owing to inflation. Ditto for Europe.
Regarding inflation… It is pernicious and is the bane of the middle class and democracy. It is a hidden and thus undemocratic tax used by central governments to enhance their control. Recently, it reached over 8 percent in Europe and even bigger in the U.S. Its history is instructive; it was one of the main causes of the fall of the Roman Empire. It also led to the rise of Hitler and Mao.
According to visualcapitalist.com the lowest rates of inflation have been and are in Asia while more than three-fourths of Americans now say they are living paycheck to paycheck. This has shrunk the middle class in the U.S. as is rarely seen in Indo-Pacific countries.
There are other variables that prove Asian countries are more democratic than Western countries: education, the rule of law, the media, crime, inward immigration, the roles of police and intelligence agencies, and new election procedures. All reflect the expanding role of government that leads to authoritarianism and discourages democratic governance.
A recent article in the Economist magazine describes how American universities have become partisan, teach woke, and are bloated and illiberal. Debate, which is an integral part of democracy, has become more common in education in Asia and less regular in the U.S. and Europe. Meanwhile, Asian universities have ascended in quality while American and European institutions have tumbled.
The weakening of the rule of law and a two-tiered system that is politically biased has become commonplace in the West and not present or much less so in the Indo-Pacific. This trend has seriously undermined democracy. This has prompted some developing south countries’ leaders to advise U.S. officials they no longer accept United States sermons about democracy. It is also an important reason rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. to “flawed democracy” status.
So too, the media in the U.S. and Europe have become progressive and partisan, thereby dampening fair discussions about politics and current events. To many residents the media has become seen as disseminating propaganda and neither professional nor objective. With that, public regard for the media has declined to below 50 percent according to recent polls. There is a stark difference in views about this between the West and Asia.
The involvement of intelligence agencies and national police organisations in politics is profoundly anti-democratic. Their impact has been partisan and especially hurtful to the ideal of fair elections, a sine qua non for democracy to work. In the U.S., the FBI and CIA operating in secret have impacted the results of elections in the name of the security state.
Rising crime and new forms of criminal justice have also given rise to citizens questioning democracy in the U.S. and Europe. According to the Global Law and Order Report issued by Gallup, Asia scores the highest based on crime rates, trust in the police, and public satisfaction with their legal systems. In the U.S. and Europe crime rates are not only higher but the lenient prosecution of many crimes has undermined public trust in the government and thus democracy. Clearly law enforcement and punishment are not in accord with what the public wants. This is not true in Asia.
Governments handling immigration likewise varies from East to West and in terms of it fitting democracy. In the U.S. and Europe lenient public policy and ignoring regulations have engendered widespread distrust in democracy as shown in opinion polls. It has brought into question Western countries’ principles of citizenship and sovereignty, not to mention social stability, human rights (especially in the U.S,), and much more. In Asia large scale immigration and illegal entry has not occurred.
Finally, voting procedures in the U.S. and Europe have changed in ways contrary to democracy. Progressive ideals have weakened ID requirements, allowed lenient absentee voting, harvesting votes, and changes that do not conform to constitutions. This was intended, it was said, to produce fairer and more inclusive democracy. It instead undermined democracy.
In conclusion, Indo-Pacific nations are carrying the load to preserve democracy in the world. This may last for some time.
John F. Copper
John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor (emeritus) of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. He is the author of more than thirty-five books on Taiwan and U.S. China/Taiwan policy, including the seventh edition of Taiwan: Nation-State or Province? (Routledge) just over a year ago and Taiwan’s Politics in Action (World Scientific) early in 2021.
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