Three days before Christmas, Treasury’s Centre for Population has without much fanfare issued its 2023 Population Statement.
As this is only weeks after the ABS issued its population estimates for 2022-23 and its long-term population projections, and a week after the Government issued its new migration strategy (in conjunction with the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), there is merit in comparing these.
While one would expect there would be very little difference between agencies in the same portfolio, that is not the case even for the last financial year.
Table 1 compares the ABS data for 2022-23 with that published by the Centre for Population:
Table 1: Population data for 2022-23
| Net Overseas Migration – 2022-23 | Natural Increase – 2022-23 | Population at end 2022-23 | |
| (A) Centre for Population | 507,600 | 121,700 | 26,642,300 |
| (B) ABS | 518,100 | 106,100 | 26,638,544 |
| Difference (A) – (B) | -10,500 | +15,600 | +3,756 |
Source: Centre for Population and ABS
While all of these are just preliminary estimates and subject to revision, the size of the differences for a year that is almost 6 months past is surprising.
The differences are likely due to the two agencies making their estimates at different points in time using different methodologies. The historical estimates will converge over time.
Population projections for 2023-24
With an Election scheduled for 2025, the Albanese Government will be eager to demonstrate it is managing net migration down in 2023-24. Table 2 shows population projection data for 2023-24 recently published by Treasury and the ABS.
Table 2: Population projections for 2023-24
| Net Overseas Migration – 2023-24 | Natural Increase – 2023-24 | Population at end 2023-24 | |
| (A) Centre for Population | 377,400 | 133,100 | 27,152,700 |
| (B) ABS (medium) | 315,000 | 121,399 | 26,971,766 |
| Difference (A) – (B) | +62,400 | +11,701 | +180,934 |
Source: Centre for Population and ABS
The ABS appears to have used Treasury’s 2023 Budget forecast for net migration in 2023-24. That is now much too low given how slowly the Government has acted to get net migration under control. Indeed, even Treasury’s revised forecast of 377,400 for 2023-24 appears too low given data on net permanent and long-term movements for the four months to October 2023.
Both Treasury and the ABS expect natural increase to rise in 2023-24 compared to 2022-23, due to both a lower assumed death rate and a higher birth rate. Treasury is expecting a much larger jump in natural increase.
Because Treasury’s assumption for Australia’s population at the start of 2023-24 is much higher than that used by the ABS, and its assumptions for natural increase and net migration are also much higher, Treasury’s projected population at end 2023-24 is 180,934 higher than the ABS projection.
The problem for Commonwealth and state government agencies, business and the general public is which of these two agencies in the same portfolio they should rely on?
Perhaps some better coordination would help?
Abul Rizvi PhD was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including the reshaping of Australia's intake to focus on skilled migration, slow Australia's rate of population ageing and boost Australia's international education and tourism industries.
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