Election study shows what kind of government New Zealand voters wanted
Nov 13, 2024
The US election guru James Carville is credited with putting Bill Clinton in the White House with the slogan “It’s the Economy, Stupid” on his election strategy white board every day of the US Presidential campaign in 1992. The New Zealand Election Study indicates the economy was also front of mind for voters in the 2023 General Election.
The New Zealand Election Study has been examining NZ General Elections since 1990. The Study is supported by the University of Auckland, Victoria University of Wellington, the New Zealand Electoral Commission and Charles Sturt University.
The main source of data is questionnaires posted to randomly selected registered voters soon after each election. Questions focused on voting choices, political opinions and social and demographic characteristics. After the 2023 General Election nearly two thousand responses were received.
A year on from the election members of the New Zealand Election Study Team have produced an article summarising some of the main findings.
The election produced a coalition led by the centre right National Party under Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, with minor parties the populist New Zealand First and more extreme right wing ACT Party.
The study shows voters got what they thought they wanted, a government claiming to have the ability to repair the economy that had been battered by the Covid pandemic with high unemployment and bloated by high international inflation resulting in high interest rates that produced a recession.
These economic problems were a nightmare for the Labour Government but fed the electorate’s desire for change which was rewarded in the election in October 2023.
The Election Study authors observe that the National-led coalition government quickly embarked on a wide range of policy changes, often reversing the policies of its Labour predecessor.
Despite continuing economic problems which the government has failed to solve, the Government coalition remains strongly favoured over the Opposition parties, 55 percent to 41 percent in a Roy Morgan poll in September 2024.
In spite of high inflation, high prices and high interest rates, New Zealanders appear to believe the government is providing what they voted for in the election.
The New Zealand Election Study helps explain why electors voted the way they did.
It was a “change” election, with 48 percent of responses favouring a National led government, and only 38 percent wanting Labour to lead.
The issues that mattered most to voters were the economy and the cost of living.
There were clear differences between these two related issues. Responders who said they cared most about the economy believed the National Party was best equipped to handle it. Those who answered the cost of living and other related issues like poverty thought Labour would deal with these problems best.
Voters surveyed also cared about a range of other issues, including health, climate change and law and order. Seventy-three percent wanted stronger sentencing laws. National’s strong pitch on law and order issues was therefore significant.
The survey also had some good news for Labour. While respondents wanted change and the economy was the most significant issue, levels of satisfaction with the Labour Government’s performance were high.
Around 54 percent said the Labour government did a “very” or “fairly” good job, perhaps surprisingly strong support for a government defeated in the election. Sixty-four percent of respondents also approved of the Labour government’s Covid response.
This is not too surprising given the success with which the government kept New Zealanders safe from the virus and the good shape the economy was in as it emerged from the pandemic.
An IMF report said of New Zealand’s Covid response, “The result has been remarkable, with very few infections and deaths.”
The IMF said the economy rebounded rapidly with “New Zealand’s growth performance ranked near the top among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.” This was before massive inflation invaded from overseas and which was mercilessly exploited by price setting businesses like supermarkets.
The survey also showed Labour’s leader Chris Hipkins was slightly more liked by respondents than National’s Christopher Luxon, by 5.3 to 4.7 out of ten. Hipkins was also seen as marginally more competent than Luxon overall.
This positive assessment begs the question why Labour lost. The survey showed almost 75 percent of people thought the economy had got worse over the year prior to the election, and two thirds of voters believed the economy or inflation had affected their voting decision.
This result suggests that the New Zealand Labour Government (and likely the US Democratic Party) lost their elections because they failed to deal effectively with economic problems or convince the electorate they were more effective and successful economic managers than their oppositions.
The New Zealand Labour Government’s fate was sealed by the pain for voters of the high imported inflation and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s counter-measures, high interest rates. In March 2023, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) predicted that the economy would enter a technical recession in the second half of 2023. The RBNZ projected that the economy would contract for three consecutive quarters starting in June 2023. This combination of economic trouble in the months before the General Election and the high priority voters placed on the economy were at least part of the reason why the Labour Government lost the election.
The National Coalition government’s mandate may turn out to be fragile. Its claims to be expert economic managers are yet to be proven.
Internationally and in New Zealand inflation has fallen but unemployment is up and the economy is struggling.
Statistics New Zealand reports that in the September quarter this year (2024) unemployment was 4.8 percent (compared with 4.6 percent in the previous quarter), many more people are remaining unemployed for longer periods, the employment rate is declining and wage growth is slowing.
The economy’s growth is low, interest rates are high causing low consumer spending and low business investment. Forecasts suggest zero growth to March 2025. Economic headwinds continue for governments in New Zealand.
The coalition government is following some policies influenced by its right wing especially the Atlas Network influenced ACT Party. One example favours landlords.
While only 30 percent of responders to the Study wanted mortgage interest to be tax deductible for landlords, the government is giving Kiwi landlords the right to claim back their mortgage interest costs on their investment properties. This is being introduced progressively between April 2024 and April 2026 when 100 percent of interest will be deductible.
The survey shows other issues favoured by voters are an improvement in living standards, a reduction in crime and better investment in government services especially healthcare, education and carbon emission reduction.
The National led government, heavily influenced by the populist New Zealand First Party and the more extreme ACT Party will struggle to meet these expectations. Failure to do so could cause them trouble in the election in 2026, especially as the Election Study shows the electorate retains relatively favourable attitudes about the former Labour Government.
Max Hayton is a New Zealand journalist who worked as a political correspondent in the Parliamentary Press Gallery in Wellington in his younger days. He then traveled to London to specialise in foreign television news. In 1989 he became Foreign Editor at the start-up private channel TV3 New Zealand. After some years he became the Foreign Editor at Television New Zealand where he worked until he retired.
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