Pearls and Irritations

Millions of Myanmar refugees could be next if Junta falls

Almost as soon as Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane for the one-way journey to Moscow, European governments began folding up the welcome mats for Syrian refugees. On December 8, the Russian foreign ministry announced that Assad had been given asylum in the country. A day later, Germany and Austria froze more than 50,000 asylum applications by Syrian refugees. Only hours later, Belgian, Greek, British, Dutch, and Italian authorities also halted asylum applications by Syrians, while the Austrian authorities drew up plans to deport the more than 100,000 already living in the country.

Since Syria’s long and brutal war began in 2011 with the suppression of popular anti-government protests, which sparked an armed conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands, seven million Syrians have been displaced internally, and more than five million have fled to neighbouring countries and beyond, according to the United Nations High Commission on Refugees. That represents almost half the country’s pre-war population of 23 million, UNHCR said.

The sheer speed of European actions doesn’t reflect a genuine belief in increased security in Syria that enables the refugees to go home. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the primary force behind the two-week offensive that toppled the Assad regime, remains a designated terrorist organisation due to former ties to al-Qaeda. It and other Turkish-based rebels remain locked in a territorial contest with the Kurdish minority. Israel has launched air strikes throughout Syria and invaded the Syrian-held Golan Heights in a bid to weaken any future Syrian government. In other words, there is no sign of lasting peace in Syria that justifies sending back refugees.

Syrians today, Burmese tomorrow?

Europe’s quick action is a clear nod to increased domestic opposition to the refugees’ presence, not concerns for Syrians’ welfare. Far-right parties, including Alternative for Germany, the Freedom Party of Austria, and the Dutch Party for Freedom, have increased their popular support partly by calling for reduced migration, especially of the non-European, non-Christian kind. Germany, which hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees in Europe, has particularly seen a spike in anti-migrant protests and media coverage in recent years.

Nor are they alone. As Michael Vatikiotis wrote in Asia Sentinel on September 2, much of the world “is in the grip of a politically charged migrant crisis that is reshaping politics dramatically, ushering in increasingly illiberal governments in ways that go beyond the migrants themselves to feature cutbacks in social welfare programs and tough-on-crime posturing. These political currents not only impact the safety and security of the migrants, but, with the changes to government policy and public sentiment they drive, are also redefining attitudes towards larger geopolitical concerns that are eroding the norms and values that once governed the so-called rules-based order.”

The fluctuating situation today in Syria has parallels with another years-long civil conflict in the heart of Asia. Just as Syria became a kaleidoscope of government and rebel forces after anti-government protests broke out in 2011, the 2021 coup turned Myanmar into a hodgepodge of junta, pro-democracy, and tribal-controlled areas. Nearly 1.4 million Burmese people became refugees in neighbouring states, a much larger population than Syrian refugees in Europe.

And just as pro-Assad forces crumbled in the face of the HTS onslaught in recent weeks, the pro-junta forces in Myanmar are also increasingly under strain. In August, the Burmese military lost control of Lashio, its first provincial military command, in half a century, speculating the possibility of a domino effect in which more regional centres fall to rebel forces. The junta is increasingly resorting to press-ganging young men to fight on the frontlines, heralding the possibility that its forces may also melt away in the face of more forceful rebel advances.

Europe’s moral bankruptcy on the refugee issue

As anti-migrant sentiment became a driving force for European governments to quickly push out Syrians, similar sentiments in Asia may also drive quick deportations of the Burmese should the junta fall. Currently, Bangladesh is temporary home to 1.1 million Rohingya living in dreadful conditions; Pakistan has taken in 400,000; Saudi Arabia 340,000; and Malaysia, with 210,000. All would be glad to see them go home to a Myanmar that wouldn’t want them even if the rebels take over. Limited resources have led Bangladeshis to increasingly see Rohingyas fleeing across the border as economic competitors rather than fellow Muslims. In Thailand, where Burmese migrant workers play an important economic role even before the junta takeover, they are increasingly seen as bearers of disease and chaos.

Within such an environment, blatant European disregard for the welfare of Syrian refugees sets a negative precedent for Asian governments to handle the Burmese refugee problem. In past years, the European Union claimed to have single-handedly fought for human rights in Asia, attempting to deter further abuses by vocally criticising regional governments. But when they deport Syrians with little concern for their actual safety, European governments have little moral authority left to condemn any future actions against Burmese refugees.

Indeed, as the civil conflict in Myanmar continues unabated, it is now more essential than ever that local stakeholders, ranging from the Burmese opposition to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations clarify their stance on the refugee issue, rather than rely on unpredictable influence from outside the region. Syrian refugees face the misfortune of having their lives put in limbo just as they celebrate the downfall of the regime that put them in the original misfortune. Asian authorities owe it to the Burmese – and the Rohingya – to not be caught in a similarly nasty surprise.

Republished from Asia Sentinal on 13 December, 2024.

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