Pearls and Irritations

The Eagles classic “Hotel California” could be considered an allegory for membership in the imperial system of the United States. At least to this point, that appears to be the mindset prevalent in Australia’s political, defence and security class, regardless of the harm that membership causes. It is time to check out.

The end of an empire tends to be messy. The end of the United States’ Empire will be no exception. For imperial collapse is not a linear process, but rather one with many fits and starts as described by American author John Michael Greer over 20 years ago in his Theory of Catabolic Collapse.

It will likely be some decades hence from which historians will be able to determine conclusively when the United States’ empire reached its zenith and when it collapsed. The second coming of President Donald J. Trump could potentially be seen as the end of the first stage of that collapse. The key event triggering the end of this stage being the recognition of the catastrophic defeat of the United States and NATO in its proxy war against Russia for which Ukraine has suffered, and continues to suffer, so much.

Trump’s recent statements with regards to Canada, Greenland and Europe in general are a marker that the empire has overreached. Clearly, the United States and NATO cannot defeat Russia militarily. It is improbable that the United States could defeat China. With the United States’ campaign against the Houthi’s in Yemen being an embarrassing failure, it is hard to imagine that the United States could succeed in a war with Iran. In short, as American commentator Will Schryver has articulated, there are “no more easy wars left to fight” for the United States.

How then does the new administration halt, if even only temporarily, an empire that is in free fall?

Before answering that question, it is useful to remind ourselves of what is an empire? Cut to its essence, empires are a wealth pump that extract wealth from the periphery and concentrate it at the imperial core.

If it is not already clear, the nations of the Western world, less the United States, are peripheral components of the United States imperial system, fulfilling the role of vassals or sub-imperial powers. During the ascendancy of the United States’ Empire, this had considerable benefits.

This will not be the case as the Empire declines. Indeed, the opposite will be the case.

Given Trump’s recent comments, a stark warning to vassal states, it is becoming clear how the decline of the empire will be slowed. Through catabolising (consuming) non-essential components of the imperial system.

Europe, having wholeheartedly brought into “Project Ukraine” and the “rules-based order” has left itself wide open to its own century of humiliation at the hands of the United States. Having both largely disarmed itself to support the entirely foreseeable failure in Ukraine, and all but severed ties with Russia, a major source of cheap and reliable energy and resources, Europe’s future is bleak.

Militarily weak and de-industrialising, it is at the mercy of the United States for expensive energy, tariffs and enforced increases to military expenditure. The quintessential example of the failure of European leadership is the destruction of Nord Stream gas pipelines, at the hands (with little doubt) of the United States. That Germany and the European Union accepted, and in some cases celebrated, this outrageous act, both demonstrates their fealty, and the ruthlessness of the United States leadership.

Australia is not in much better shape, having signed up to AUKUS, the “worst deal of the century”, a deal that imposes no responsibility on the United States to deliver the promised nuclear submarines. Worse, Australia has no recourse, or ability to obtain a refund, if the submarines are not delivered. The Morrison and Albanese governments have effectively handed sovereignty, independent decision-making, as well as a blank cheque to the United States. In other words, Australian wealth will be transferred to the United States, for the benefit of the United States, whilst Australia and Australians wear the costs.

This is just one example of the cost of being a peripheral power in the United States imperial system as it declines. A system which has all the hallmarks of being a protection racket.

During the rise and zenith of American Empire the West enjoyed the benefits of the so-called “rules-based order” whilst the remainder of the world attempted to work out what the rules were. Now that we have entered the decline phase of United States’ Empire, countries such as Australia will, with no little sense of irony, be required to work out for themselves what the rules are.

Whilst the rules may be unwritten, their essence is becoming increasingly clear. The following set of rules are a guide as to what Australia should expect with its future interactions with the United States:

• Rule One. The interests of the United States are the dominant consideration
• Rule Two. The United States will do everything possible to prevent countries from leaving the empire (The destruction of Nord Stream and sacrifice of Ukraine in a hopeless cause are examples of how far these actions could go).
• Rule Three. The internal economic, political and social damage caused by the application of Rules One and Two are of no consequence to the United States.

To state that Australia faces a predicament understates quite considerably the challenge before us. The benefits of being part of the United States imperial system are evaporating whilst the costs will only continue to rise (up to, and including, being involved in a conflict with our major trading partner and source of prosperity). Yet to attempt to leave the imperial embrace has the potential to be equally traumatic.

Still, there are multiple reasons why Australia has a much better chance of disentangling itself from the ever-tightening constrictions of our imperial embrace than other vassals such as most European countries.

These reasons will be explored in a subsequent article but in short, Australia is in the position that it can check out, if we are bold enough to take it, from “Hotel California”.

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