Pakistans rulers face an emboldened and resilient personality in the form of ex-prime minister Imran Khan. With such challenges now cascading upon the country, the greatest threat might yet be a further political crisis as the people abandon the government in the search for stability.

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Pakistans rulers the army, intelligence services, and that segment of the civilian government with some policy-making and coercive powers face three intersecting challenges to their authority and legitimacy.

The first is an imploding economy. Pakistan is ina balance of payments crisis. Foreign exchange reserves nowcover less than three weeks of imports. A potential default looms and ordinary Pakistanis are being hit withsky-high inflation.

The second isrising terrorism. Jihadist and ethnic separatist terrorists are waging attacks against security forces at levels unseen in years.

And the third is the problem of Imran Khan. Since being sacked last April, the ex-prime ministers popularity as reflected in bothpublic opinion pollsand federal and provincialby-elections has risen. Support for Khan remains resilient in spite of or perhaps because of the army and civilian government having thrown the kitchen sink at him.

Defectors from his party have beenpromoted in state media. Audio of Khans purported conversations some with aides inside the prime ministers office and others of a sexual nature with a woman have beenleaked on the Internetand promoted by pro-government influencers.

The Election Commission of PakistandisqualifiedKhan from holding public office for five years for alleged corruption. Members of Khans party have been abducted and victimised throughsexual assaultorblackmail. And in November, Khan was the target ofa failed assassination attempt.

Despite all this, support for Khan endures and his party is progressing. But the pressure, once again, is mounting on Khan. In recent days, several major Khan-allied politicians have beenarrested. Pro-government media arefuellingrumours that Khan is next. In response, Khan has called on his supporters tocourt arrestand overwhelm the prisons, threatening the government with mass unrest.

Neither the civilian government nor the army has a solution for the problem of Khan. Last April, these power brokers united to oust him. They pledged to fix the economy, restore democratic rule, and improve Pakistans relations with the world. But on all fronts, conditions in Pakistan have only deteriorated. After bringing down Khans government, it is the political ships of the ex-cricketers civilian and military opponents that are sinking.

Theres now a low probability that Khans rivals will be able to restore public support before October, when the next general election must take place. Pakistans economy is in deep distress. To avert default, the government will have to abide byInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) demands including the elimination of fuel subsidies that will exacerbate inflation and unemployment.

To avoid a drubbing, Pakistans rulers appear intent on denying Khan the ability to lead his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf, in free and fair general elections. Last month, the Election Commission of Pakistanappointeda partisan figure to whats supposed to be a non-partisan role as caretaker chief-minister of the province of Punjab. This is a preview of the bias with which the Commission will handle the electoral process over the course of this year.

There remains the significant possibility that Pakistans rulers will once again resort to extraordinary measures to resolve the problem of Khan. The ex-prime ministers disqualification from public office could be upheld. He faces the possibility of arrest or even another assassination attempt. There is also chatter about thegeneral election being delayedfor an extended period. On top of all this, the government ispreparing legislation that would punish persons for up to five years in prison for ridiculing or scandalising the army or judiciary.

Focused on political survival, Pakistans rulers fail to see the big picture. They rely on old tricks like pegging the currency or crude disinformation to defer hard economic choices and avoid political accountability. But the economic and security trend lines are deeply ominous. And as life becomes more difficult and dangerous for common Pakistanis, trust is dangerously eroding. At a protest in Peshawar, policemeninsinuatedthat a terror attack targeting their forces was an inside job by the countrys intelligence services.

Pakistanis are angry. Denying them the right to vote later this year will only add fuel to the fire. There is little appetite to live in a country where upward mobility and political rights are denied by the civilian-military elite. Many Pakistanis are now voting with their feet. Over 800,000 Pakistanisleft the country to work abroadlast year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. According to a Gallup Pakistan survey, over fifty percent of Pakistanis with a university degreewould like to leave the country.

It may be exogenous forces that can induce a political de-escalation in Pakistan. TheIMFand other foreign partners, includingSaudi Arabia, are pressing for a consensus on economic reforms. That seems to require agreement between the government and Khan on economic policy. But those keen on a stable Pakistan would also be wise to nudge the countrys feuding parties to commit to holding free and fair elections within the constitutionally-mandated period this year. The pathway out of Pakistans ongoing crisis is through the strengthening and deepening of democratic norms not subverting them.

This article is published under a Creative Commons Licence and may be republished with attribution.

First published by the Australian Institute of International Affairs February 8, 2023