Pearls and Irritations

Since the birth of Indonesian democracy 25 years ago, Indonesians have called their elections ‘pesta demokrasi’, a celebration of democracy. But voters don’t so much choose between parties and policies as between individuals… and those individuals have ever-shifting allegiances: dance partners.

On 14 February 2024, as in previous elections, voters will choose between those dance-partners.

Shifting personal alliances

Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto was formerly a ‘dance partner’ of Megawati, leader of PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle). In 2009, Megawati ran for the presidency with Prabowo as her Vice-presidential running mate. Since 2009, the relationship has soured. Megawati supported Joko Widodo against Prabowo in the 2014 and 2019 elections, and is supporting Ganjar Pranowo against Prabowo in the 2024 presidential elections.

Prabowo was also formerly a dance partner of Anies Baswedan. In 2017, Prabowo campaigned to assist Baswedan to be elected Governor of Jakarta. Baswedan was subsequently touted as a Vice-presidential running mate for Prabowo in the 2019 Presidential elections. Baswedan’s dance with Prabowo did not last long. Baswedan is running directly against Prabowo in the 2024 presidential elections.

In 2024, one of Prabowo’s new dance partners is another former general, Wiranto. In throwing his support behind Prabowo’s candidacy, Wiranto praised Prabowo’s patriotism and knowledge. This is the same Wiranto who, as the Head of Indonesia’s Armed Forces in 1998, presided over the dismissal of Prabowo from the military. This is the same Wiranto who ran as a Vice Presidential candidate against Prabowo in 2009 and, after an unsuccessful early run in the presidential race against Prabowo in 2014, then threw his support behind Joko Widodo, Prabowo’s main rival that year. Enmity doesn’t last forever in a ‘dance partner’ democracy.

Another of Prabowo’s new dance partners is Joko Widodo, the man who defeated Prabowo in the presidential elections of 2014 and 2019. Just months after defeating Prabowo in the 2019 elections, President Widodo appointed Prabowo as his Defence Minister. In 2024, Widodo is implicitly supporting Prabowo’s presidential campaign, with Prabowo appointing Widodo’s son, Gibran, as his Vice-presidential running mate. Could Australians imagine Peter Dutton joining Anthony Albanese’s Cabinet and becoming a dance partner of Anthony Albanese?

Minimal policy differences

One of the reasons Indonesian elites have been able to change their dance partners so readily is because there is not much difference in their visions and policy approaches. Almost anybody can match with anybody. So similar are the visions of Indonesia’s elites that current President Joko Widodo has been able to recruit leaders of most opposition parties into his Cabinet.

Indonesia has no green party. Nor has it had any viable left wing political party since 1965, when hundreds of thousands of Communist Party members were massacred. Budiman Sujatmiko, who was perhaps the highest-profile leftist and political prisoner in the 1990s, has become more mainstream in recent years, throwing his support behind Prabowo’s presidential candidacy.

Whoever wins Indonesia’s presidential and general assembly elections this week is unlikely to deviate much from the policies of the current government. The choices facing voters have been characterised as ‘comparable candidates promising continuity.’ What perhaps distinguishes the three presidential candidates more than their policies is their leadership styles. Prabowo is viewed as more erratic and fiery than his two rivals, Pranowo and Baswedan. Pranowo is said to have a ‘genteel leadership style’. Baswedan is viewed as the most intellectual of the three.

Indonesia’s version of democracy may not offer its voters much policy differentiation. However, the similarities between all the dance partners has enabled Indonesia to become a remarkably stable country in the twenty first century.

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