Pearls and Irritations

Power is the proverbial drug that leaders find hard to quit.

After ten years as Indonesia’s president, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has passed the baton to Prabowo Subianto October 20.

However, Jokowi is no lame duck. He has made moves that can still allow his influence to be felt.

Jokowi’s stay-in-power thoughts and done deals could match the power precepts of Niccolo Machiavelli, a public official in 16th Century Florence, a major principality under the autocratic rule of Lorenzo de Medici. Machiavelli was imprisoned and tortured by de Medici.

A ruler can act unethically and immorally to hold on to power. He or she can exercise any means to that end.

This is a key postulate Machiavelli (1469-1527) underscored in his 1513 treatise, Il Principe, The Prince.

Another principle is “keep your friends close and your enemies closer”.

Machiavelli maintains that leaders should always mask their true intentions. For sure, Jokowi never stated outright his intentions. But his subtle steps were detectable.

Jokowi’s post-presidential influence is noted in Prabowo’s cabinet lineup the new president announced the night after his inauguration. Jokowi had 34 ministers. Prabowo announced 48 ministers and 56 deputy ministers.

Prabowo retained 18 ministers from Jokowi’s cabinet. They include respected finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati to calm world investors, state-owned enterprises minister Erick Thohir, home affairs minister Tito Karnavian, and energy and natural resources minister Bahlil Lahadalia.

Beginnings

Jokowi, 63, was a small furniture businessman who became mayor of his hometown, Solo, in 2005 and later as governor of Jakarta in 2012. In 2014 Jokowi successfully ran to be president as a common man candidate opposite strongman retired General Prabowo Subianto who hails from the political elite.

In his first five-year term, Jokowi scored high public approval ratings for building toll-roads, developing public transport and delivering social benefits like the costly but highly favoured BPJS program in universal health care.

In the start of his second and final five-year term in 2019, Jokowi announced what was to be his signature legacy, a new US$33 billion capital named Nusantara (Archipelago) in the Borneo jungle.

However, the world-wide onslaught of the Covid-19 pandemic impaired the construction of this planned carbon-neutral, environment-friendly, hi-tech cyber city.

Jokowi realised that by the end of his presidency he could not yet move the capital from flood-fraught, pollution and traffic-jam-prone Jakarta to Nusantara, 1260 km to Jakarta’s northeast in East Kalimantan province.

To finish incomplete programs, Jokowi quietly sought to amend the Constitution to allow him a third term but failed to get parliamentary traction.

Jokowi’s alternative course was how to exercise power indirectly after he leaves office.

House call

Jokowi won his first and second terms by trouncing Prabowo, a former special forces Army commander. Prabowo took defeat vindictively. Knowing this, Jokowi acted to assuage that spite.

Jokowi called on Prabowo’s residence. The incumbent caught Prabowo unaware by inviting him to join his Cabinet as defence minister. This is the victor respecting and reverting the loser to be his ally. Prabowo accepted this invite arguing it was for national unity.

In public statements, Prabowo would profusely praise Jokowi’s character and policies including the building of the new capital.

Meanwhile, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s first son, has been elected mayor of Solo in 2021.

Jokowi’s thinking was to have Gibran stand for Central Java governor. Subnational elections for governors, mayors and regents are scheduled for Nov 27 this year.

However, in the year before the Feb 14 2024 presidential and legislative voting, Prabowo sought permission from Jokowi to have Gibran as his vice presidential running mate.

Prabowo, 73, has publicly stated Indonesia’s future is in the hands of young leaders. He declared he wanted to be the bridge to the next generation.

Given that Jokowi has enjoyed consistently high approval ratings, Prabowo judged that having Gibran on his ticket and his father’s endorsement would be a double benefit.

Age was a conditional issue. Under Indonesia’s election law, Indonesians running for president and vice president must be at least 40 years old. Gibran is 37.

Coercion

Jokowi’s brother-in-law who was then the chief justice of the Constitutional Court cut the Gordian knot for Gibran. The Constitutional Court ruled the 40-year-old age limit remains but younger candidates who already hold elected public office can also run.

A public outcry ensued. Academics and rights activists accuse Jokowi of building a political dynasty.

Prabowo was pitted against two other tickets: former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo. Prabowo vanquished them, capturing 58.6% of the vote. A ballot distance of more than 30% to either of his opponents ruled out a second round of voting.

No manipulation in vote counting was reported in the Feb 14 election. However, in the campaign, pre-election coercion and intervention profited the Prabowo/Gibran ticket.

Jokowi deployed the military and police in the provinces to pressure grassroots leaders like village heads to get their population to vote for Prabowo-Gibran.

The president would also visit vote-rich districts in the central island of Java and distribute 10 kilo sacks of rice to low income residents as one form of social assistance. Java has 56% of Indonesia’s population of 280 million people.

Jokowi also commanded sway on eight of the nine political parties with seats in parliament. The lone out-of-the-ring party was the Islam-based PKS that rejected Jokowi’s new capital scheme.

Further, in August energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia got to become general chair of the influential Golkar party that has the second most seats in the newly elected parliament. Golkar was the political vehicle that kept authoritarian president Soeharto in power from 1966 to 1998.

Bahlil is a Jokowi loyalist who undertook the failed lobbying to get parliamentary approval for a third term for Jokowi.

Democracy in decline

In its July 29, 2024 edition on ten years as president, the Jakarta-based news weekly Tempo viewed in a strident editorial that Jokowi has “pulled back the progress of democracy”.

“Indonesia is now afflicted with the four characteristics of democratic reversal: a legal system that is not impartial, a bureaucracy that is not neutral, excessive executive power, and media that is not independent,” the editorial exclaimed.

The magazine reported Jokowi has committed 18 sins in his 10 years in power that turn back the 1998 reform drive after the 32-year rule of General Soeharto. Tempo detailed each sin in up to six pages.

These anti-democracy moves include political dynasty and oligarchy building, weakening of democratic institutions, and debilitating the erstwhile independent Corruption Eradication Commission, KPK, making its officers into government employees.

In his second term, Jokowi did not hide his pro-business drive. He pushed policies that allowed investors laxity of environment protection regulations and KPK scrutiny.

Tempo’s serious fault-finding, however, did not slacken favourable polling of Jokowi’s work performance. The nonpartisan daily Kompas gave Jokowi an approval rating of 75.6% in June 2024, up from 73.5% in December 2023.

More recently, pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia gave Jokowi a 75% favourable rating based on a Sept 22-29 survey with 1200 respondents in 11 of the most populated provinces.

The nation’s elite, however, may not share that poll-based sentiment. On October 1, newly elected and returned legislators of the 580-member House of Representatives were sworn in.

When the House Speaker acknowledged the presence of President Joko Widodo, the vast chamber fell silent. When the Speaker stated the name of president-elect Prabowo Subianto, House members gave rousing applause.

What are Jokowi’s sources of power? Australian National University’s annual Indonesia Update conference Sept 13-14 2024 notes three points: popularity, coercion, and power sharing with elites.

Delivery matters

Apparently voters are more into what a leader can deliver. They are indifferent to dynasty formation that is also found at the subnational level.

When Jokowi stepped down on October 20, one question is how he can influence matters of state.

Through Gibran, his son and even Prabowo, Jokowi can get access to cabinet deliberations. Jokowi also maintains links to the parties that endorse Prabowo, particularly Golkar.

It is Jokowi’s intent that his unfinished programs stay on track. This includes the Nusantara national capital where he has taken office in the capacious presidential palace the past month. Another is down streaming industries turning raw minerals like nickel and bauxite into manufactured goods. Also plantation crops like oil palm converted to biofuel.

But the key determinant would be the new president. Prabowo has his own signature programs. One is providing free nutritional lunches to Indonesian school kids. Another is to boost the annual economic growth rate to 8% from the present 5%. Prabowo has the closing call.