
Peter Dutton’s hopes for Australia to be the first nation in the Southern Hemisphere to pioneer the use of small-to-medium nuclear reactors seem dashed.
Not because of ALP hostility, doomscrolling by economists, a twitchy electorate, forests of greenies and swags of sceptics – but because we could be overtaken by Indonesia hurtling down the fast lane.
(Below the Equator the 40-year-old Koeberg reactor in South Africa is not an SMR.)
While we argue on the minuses, Indonesia is adding the positives and deleting (or overlooking) the negatives.
Despite being geologically unstable and having no experience in the dicey business of juggling atoms for peace (the country’s research reactor is a sexagenarian), Indonesia is planning for at least 20 nuclear units.
Once opponents are trampled, a $1.63 billion prototype could be in place by 2028, boiling kettles and powering tools four years later.
Several locations have been proposed, frightening the locals. The currently favoured hot spot eliminates community concerns, for the 221-hectare Kelasa Island on the east side of Sumatra is uninhabited.
Economic Affairs Minister, Airlangga Hartarto reportedly told investors in December that the “PLN (the State-owned power-generation monopoly PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara) has already partnered with American and Japanese companies to develop small modular reactors with a capacity of less than 300 MW.”
In March 2023, Indonesia and the US Trade and Development Agency signed an agreement to develop modular reactor technology. PLN got a $1 million grant for feasibility studies.
Facts are scarce. This story has more quirks and qualifiers than a commentator’s election predictions. “Probably, potentially, expressions of interest, expected, estimated …”. The list is long. The confusion is deep and deliberate.
There’s a little mutton on the menu. PT ThorCon Power Indonesia has been named as the force behind the proposal “crafted in collaboration with key stakeholders.”
This show is hardly General Electric. One site says it has only three employees, another almost 20.
Its website reports that it’s a wholly foreign-owned company involved in Indonesia since 2018. It has “engaged closely with the Indonesian Government …and had consultations with BAPETEN.” Badan Pengawas Tenaga Nuklir is the Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency.
What’s going on when foreign hustlers can be ushered into Jakarta’s top-floor boardrooms and given time to PowerPoint?
Here’s the clue, coming from the US-based non-profit agency the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis: It writes about Indonesia’s “nuclear power euphoria” then adds it’s “all smoke and mirrors with no current technical, financial or market viability”.
Such negativity from a credible source should smother the idea. However, Generation WiFi is impatient. An opinion survey last decade alleged “a consistent year-on-year increase in support for nuclear” – as it would, having been generated by the World Nuclear Association.
Former President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo told the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change his nation would slash greenhouse gas emissions, promising carbon neutrality by 2050.
Difficult in a country with 132 million petrol-powered motorbikes and 37 coal-fired stations plus a further 15 starting up this year, (‘25) Lesser sources are oil, hydro, biomass, solar, wind and geothermal. Industrial and domestic power users have little choice – diesel gensets or PLN.
Australia isn’t the only lucky country for goodies to dig and sell. Three of Indonesia’s mega billionaires are King Coals. Chinese-owned nickel over-producers in Sulawesi have forced ten Australian mines to close.
The archipelago has an estimated 23 billion metric tonnes of low-calorie coal mostly in East Kalimantan. Ironically this is where the new capital Nusantara is rising as an “eco-city” running on renewables.
China, India and the Philippines are the main buyers. Last year (2024) exports topped expectations by more than eight per cent.
Selling more to reduce needs sounds like the Vietnam Battle of Bến Tre quote: “We had to destroy the town to save it.”
Domestic rooftop solar panels are rare in Indonesia. The technology has few enthusiasts and fewer installers. There are only two “utility-scale wind farms” in the country with a total of 50 turbines.
Said an IEEFA report: “Despite the steady erosion of nuclear power’s competitive potential, key Southeast Asian energy ministries continue to be lobbied by nuclear advocates.
“In growing power markets like Indonesia, decision-makers are facing a barrage of pro-nuclear media coverage as the nuclear industry floods the market with panels and webinars.
“Many of these offerings are sponsored by lobbyists for the international backers of new small modular reactor technologies, who are actively engaging with governments and utilities.”
That’s happening with ThorCon Power Indonesia that spruiks:
“Given the limited potential for renewable energy in Indonesia’s base-load capacity, nuclear energy is seen as a viable solution to meet the country’s substantial low-carbon energy demand. ThorCon’s nuclear facility will utilize a Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR), expected to provide 500 MW of low-carbon electricity.
“ThorCon has to be potentially become the first company to build and operate Indonesian first Nuclear Power Plant.” Hopefully, their techs are better with uranium than grammar.
The untested plan has units assembled in South Korea and barged to Indonesia. Waste won’t be an issue as Mr Dutton reportedly says it can fit in a Coke can. The nation with the world’s fourth-largest thirst has an abundance.
The costs, inevitable blowouts and uncertainties involved in new tech are worries enough, but the biggest barrier is the Ring of Fire. It’s a 40,000 km long tectonic belt of trembling soils, big bang mountains and seafloor upheavals causing tsunamis – like the 2004 Aceh tragedy,
The moods of Indonesia’s 127 active volcanoes are idiosyncratic. Every year several spew fire and fumes, burning people and property. Having a nuclear reactor nearby, however small, green and funded by private investors may not be the government’s best thought bubble.
ThorCon’s impressive name and offices in Jakarta and Bangka belie the reality that its public information is confusing.
One site says it’s a “Singapore-based special purpose company which (sic) established for the purpose of financing the $USD 1,2 billion Indonesia project.”
ThorCon US, Inc. reports it’s “a business company in the US, owned by the founder of ThorCon Power, that owns the intellectual property for the ThorCon TMSR500 design.”
Another site claims it’s headquartered in Dubai and appears to be a door-opener for big investors – the most prominent is Virya.
This private Belgium-based company is “committed to finding the best investment opportunities globally and building investment portfolios for sustained rapid growth … progressing with you in the wealth creation journey and enjoy a prosperous and beautiful life together!”
No mention of nuclear.
Indonesia has a record of speedily completing major industrial projects using Chinese money and cheap labour toiling 24/7. Java toll roads and Sulawesi nickel smelters have been built years faster than similar jobs in Australia.
Cutting health and safety measures and barging aside community and environmental naysayers has put pedal to metal. In the time it takes Canberra to publish another committee report, SMRs in Indonesia could be lighting the way to a brighter future.
Or one more hazardous.