Given their recent history, it is ironic that Macron and Morrison will come up for election at very close to the same time.
The French presidential election is due to hold both rounds of voting in April. It is probable that the next Australian election will be in May.
The main purpose of this article is to assess the probability of a Macron victory in the French Presidential election.
The comparison with Australia is principally to illustrate the French situation, but given their recent history it is also interesting to examine Macron and Morrison’s respective prospects of re-election.
Of course, it is far too early to be very confident in either case. Polling is a notoriously imperfect guide to election prospects, but it remains the best guide we have.
In France, some trends are already clear.
Macron is not outstandingly popular. His latest approval rating based on the Politico poll of polls stood at 40%. His overall net rating was -18.
However, Macron is blessed with a divided and divisive opposition.
Last election he was fortunate enough to be in the second-round run-off against Marine Le Pen who proved too extreme for mainstream French voters to support. In fact, Macron won in a landslide.
Until very recently it has looked most likely that the second-round this time would be a re-run of 2017, in which case the result would be likely to be similar.
However, recently Ms. Le Pen has been outflanked from both the centre right and the extreme right! The emerging leading challenger from the extreme right is M. Zemmour, who has been described as the French Trump. While this is in some way unfair it does illustrate the direction of travel. The other challenge to Ms. Le Pen comes from the candidate of the traditional right of centre party, Ms. Pecresse.
The latest poll numbers suggest that Ms. Le Pen’s standing as the right candidate is under serious threat. Although Zemmour is fading, Le Pen and Pecresse are neck and neck for second place behind Macron.
This matters because in the French electoral system if no one gets 50% in the first round of voting, a second round is held two weeks later in which only the first two candidates are included. This is effectively a similar method to the Australian ranked-choice voting system.
In 2017,Macron and Le Pen were leaders after the first round with 24% and 21% respectively, Macron won the second round 66/34.
The current polling suggests that Macron would beat either of the most likely opponents in the second round. The current average of the polls suggest Macron would defeat Le Pen 57/43 and would beat Pecresse 53/47. The most recent poll had Macron and Pecresse much closer, but for the moment this appears to be an outlier.
There is a considerable amount of support for more left-wing candidates. Some analysts suggest as much as 25%. However, it is hopelessly split amongst 7 or more candidates, ranging from Trotskyists to the mainstream Socialist Party which elected Mitterrand and Hollande in the past. While they remain so divided none of them have even a remote chance of winning but their support will be important to Macron, particularly if he is up against Le Pen.
So, it is probable but not certain that Macron will win, particularly if he is up against Le Pen, which remains the most likely outcome. As support for Zemmour continues to fade, logically this should help Le Pen more than Pecresse, although time will tell. As an incumbent Macron (and Morrison) should be able to improve his position during the campaign as attention shifts from a referendum on the incumbent to a choice between alternative leaders.
Australian polling is not so positive for Morrison.
His approval ratings until recently have been a little better than those for Macron. However, his most recent approval rating is 39% and his overall net rating was -19.
The Poll Bludgers poll trend suggests that Morrison is trailing Labor in two party preferred terms 44/56. If this were to be the actual result it would be the worst result for a major party at an Australian election since 1966 and the worst result for an incumbent government since WW2.
This is far from insuperable even if the polling is accurate(which I don’t believe it is), but as a starting point it is less encouraging than the polling for Macron.
The only safe answer to the question: “who will win?” in either country is to say it is too early to tell.
But a betting person would prefer to have his or her money on Macron rather than Morrison at this stage.
Bob McMullan was State Secretary of the Labor Party and National Secretary as well as a Senator, MP and Cabinet Minister. He is now a Visiting fellow at the Australian Studies Institute at ANU.
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