Prabowo Subianto has got his diary right: First overseas handshake from the new President of Indonesia is for his bankers in Beijing, President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. Trump can wait.
A year ago Bank Indonesia reported the nation owes China more than US$27 billion and is already in a debt trap according to some economists.
Prabowo is 73, physically unfit and seven years past the average Indonesian man’s use-by date – which is 15 years less than his Australian counterpart.
But if genetics has a role in longevity, he’s got two five-year terms to reset directions for world’s fourth-largest nation. His economist Dad Sumitro Djojohadikusumo lasted till he was 83, so on that basis, the new president has plenty of time to destroy his dislikes.
Like Trump, he has a little list, but this is no cue for the Mikado favourite.
First up is democracy followed by critics in and outside Parliament, independent historians, human rights activists, NGOs and journalists.
He’s appointed the second-largest cabinet in Indonesia’s democratic history. As reported earlier on this website, to ensure they’re not into any woke ideologies he ordered them to parade wearing camouflage for a dawn assault on civil rights.
His 48-member ministry (five are women) together with 59 vice ministers, and five heads of state presented at a military training camp and snapped into line.
If there were any dissidents, independent thinkers or even the odd rebel present, they knew they’d lose their jobs, allowances, titles and status for challenging the autocracy.
As all are deep in debt to their political and business backers, best to grin not grimace at the shameful farce.
Second president Soeharto (1966-98) was allegedly the world’s worst kleptocrat – $35 billion from the public purse and never prosecuted.
He called his autocracy Orde Baru (New Order) and his former son-in-law Prabowo intends to take the Republic back to the vile days of quasi-military rule.
A grim joke at the time had a civilian in a crowd grovellingly asking a big man if he was a general, a colonel or had in-laws in the military.
“No – why?” “In that case, sir, please move because you’re standing on my foot.”
Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement) the party Prabowo started and leads, openly wants a return to the Constitution of 18 August 1945, written the day after Soekarno proclaimed the Dutch East Indies dead and the birth of the world’s newest republic. The Constitutional Court came later.
The preamble talks about “developing the nation’s intellectual life and to contribute to the implementation of a world order based on freedom, lasting peace and social justice.
Also in the wording is “belief in the One and Only God, on just and civilised humanity, on the unity of Indonesia and on democratic rule.”
As Melbourne University Indonesian law expert Professor Tim Lindsey has written: “It did not guarantee human rights or a separation of powers, and it gave huge power to the president, who was not elected and had no term limit.”
Orde Baru included the policy of dwifungsi (dual function). Serving soldiers had 100 secure seats in parliament (dropping to 75 in 1997). They were appointed as mayors, provincial governors, ambassadors, heads of state-owned corporations, the judiciary, and the cabinet.
Mateship, not merit, was the qualification for these jobs. Golkar (functional groups) was a mockery of democracy. It was the government’s political party that public servants had to support. As ballot boxes were in offices bosses could catch the disloyal.
Dwifungsi was scrapped when Soeharto quit in 1998 and Reformasi arrived returning power to the people. But it’s fast evaporating.
In October 2023, new laws were passed allowing active members of the military and police (which used to be run by the Army) to hold civilian positions.
Tentara Nasional Indonesia (TNI Indonesian Armed Forces) commander General Agus Subiyanto told Kompas newspaper this was not dwifungsi, but multifungsi – in other words even more uniforms in the corridors of civilian authorities.
Historian Dr Jonathan Tehusijarana writes of the military’s “creation myth … derived through the central role the TNI claims to have played in Indonesia’s struggle for independence despite civilian incompetence.
“The official narrative says the TNI became an effective fighting force that successfully beat back Dutch colonialism through a campaign of guerrilla warfare.
“This ‘closeness’ to the people in turn gave the TNI the legitimacy to claim … a role in both national defence and sociopolitical affairs.”
Prabowo remains a suckling of the TNI even though kicked out for disobedience in 1998.
In 2026, a new law will make it illegal to criticise the government and for radio and TV stations to broadcast “investigative journalism content”.
Legislation from 2017 allows the dissolution of NGOs without going through the courts.
Added Lindsey: “Many activists now speak openly of their fear of being targeted and intimidated by government trolls or even the intelligence agencies. Others fear Prabowo will use his links to Muslim civil society organisations to pressure or delegitimise other groups he sees as critics.
“Soeharto’s system was based on a Faustian bargain that allowed him to rule corruptly and oppressively in return for high economic growth and development that lifted millions out of poverty.”
In this year’s presidential election campaign, Prabowo promised GDP eight per cent growth. As his predecessor got just above five per cent with massive infrastructure programmes the higher figure seems unreachable.
None of this is likely to bother China, the source of loans and investments that powered the economy during the ten years of seventh President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo.
This is why Prabowo’s first overseas trip as President was to Beijing. His authoritarianism won’t bother Red lenders but will stress Western investors worried about human rights.
Whether any remain after Trump’s trouncing of the left is a matter for Prabowo’s talks in Beijing.
Duncan Graham has been a journalist for more than 40 years in print, radio and TV. He is the author of People Next Door (UWA Press). He is now writing for the English language media in Indonesia from within Indonesia.
Duncan Graham has an MPhil degree, a Walkley Award, two Human Rights Commission awards and other prizes for his radio, TV and print journalism in Australia. He lives in East Java.
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