MUNGO MACCALLUM. THE Nats. and Barnaby

Barnaby Joyce is focussed and determined to the point of egomania, and utterly ruthless in the process. That is what makes him dangerous.

In the broad stream of politics, it seldom matters which Nationals are in the coalition ministry and which aren’t.

Few if any punters will have heard of Darren Chester, let alone Keith Pitt, and most would only have recognized Bridget McKenzie and Matt Canavan until they had left the front bench – McKenzie for a minor offence (there were plenty of more serious ones to lay against her) and Canavan for resigning in an attempt to knock off his leader.

McKenzie, of course, had become the scapegoat for sports rorts, and Canavan a climate denier and a fanatical lobbyist for fossil fuels, so neither will be missed, although, incredibly, both have retained their positions as the Nationals senate leadership team and there are already suggestions they they should be rehabilitated to the ministry.

However, within the cabinet they can be seamlessly replaced by other nonentities as long as the Nats retain their quota within the coalition agreement. And it could be argued that much the same would apply if Michael McCormack himself retired to the backbench, or indeed if he disappeared from parliament altogether – he has failed to make any impression, even within the political media which sometimes find themselves unable to pick him out of an identification parade.

With one exception since the resignation of Tim Fischer the Nats have been unable to find a a leader with even a hint of charisma, and the party’s glory days of the real heavies – Black Jack McEwen and his successors, Doug Anthony and Ian Sinclair, are long gone. But the exception. of course, is the great Beetrooter, Barnaby Joyce, who, in the current party room, stands out like a prize stud bull in a paddock full of steers and heifers

Joyce could hardly be called a major achiever, but he has certainly been noticed, both in and out of his party’s leadership – and it is worth mentioning that he can justly boast that he has had more experience of leadership than either McCormack, or even Scott Morrison. No one is calling him Dial Tone, the derisive nickname recently attached to the forgettable McCormack.

If nothing else, Joyce is an indefatigable self-publicist, and he intends to keep it that way, which is bad news for both McCormack and Morrison. Joyce’s initial attempt to replace McCormack failed, as everyone expected it to, and the margin is supposed to be a closely guarded secret. Joyce’s supporters say it was just one vote, which is probably an exaggeration. But even the McCormack loyalists admit that the challenger had six or seven on his side in the 21srong party room, around a third and more than enough for the basis of a second try.

Joyce says that it won’t happen – that the matter is done and dusted. Well. he would say that, wouldn’t he? But any observer of Australian politics not in a coma knows that once the leadership contest is launched, it is unlikely to subside until one or the other contestants leaves the stage altogether, and Joyce is not going to be the one to walk away.

Indeed, he has signalled that the battle has just begun; along with Llew O’Brien and George Christensen among his key support group on the backbench he has asserted his right, if not his intention, to cross the floor if he opposes government measures with which he disagrees. Whether this is a serious threat is yet to be seen; Christensen, for instance, has tried to  bluff almost as many times as he has visited the Philippines. But in a parliament with majority of just two, it cannot and will not be ignored.

Even if the threat is implemented, it would not necessarily mean the defeat for Morrison in the House of Representatives; Labor is unlikely to embrace Joyce’s agenda. and if Anthony Albanese did succumb to opportunism, there would probably be enough crossbenchers to save the government from embarrassment. But it could certainly get pretty ugly, and at the very least will be a major distraction for Morrison as he tries to restore his singed authority.

And this will be particularly irritating over the vexed issue of climate change, where Morrison is desperately attempting to restore unity within his own Liberal Party ranks. The Joyce rump has made it clear that the are not for turning; they are denialists and proud of it, they want more coal-fried power stations, they are not interested in renewables, and transition – Morrison’s current mantra – is a dirty word.

And probably most of their fellow Nats, including some McCormack supporters, agree with them. This will be non-negotiable, so just how Morrison deals with it will be fascinating; either he backs down, leaving the Liberal moderates in despair and worrying for the next couple of years over their seats, or he breaks the habit of a lifetime and takes them on.

His immediate response was to plead for mercy – surely Joyce would not do anything to embarrass the government, would he? Well, yes, he would – this is the whole point of the insurrection. Joyce’s core complaint is that the Nats have become no more than an appendage to the Liberal majority, that McCormack has become subservient to Morrison. The solution is differentiation: to provide the party with a clear, separate identity – what better way to make the point than disrupting the Morrison-McCormack legislative agenda? And if he has to blow the joint up to do it, them’s the breaks.

Of course he would not go so far as to break the coalition agreement and lose all the lurks, perks. rorts and scams of office – as with loyalty, disloyalty also has its limits. But short of that, nothing is on or off the table. And that latter category includes not only McCormack, but also Morrison.

The bellicose and bumptious Barnaby can be something of a buffoon – impulsive, erratic, and often irrational. But when his own ambitions are involved, he should not be underestimated. He is focussed and determined to the point of egomania, and utterly ruthless in the process. That is what makes him dangerous.

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6 Responses to MUNGO MACCALLUM. THE Nats. and Barnaby

  1. Jon Stanford says:

    Well, a couple of days ago I heard on RN a comment from a senior woman in a high level Nats organisation. She sounded quite delightful and had a few mild but apposite comments to make on people and their general demeanour. But, au fond, she appeared to have a problem with the Beetrooter’s moral compass. Could this not affect his electoral appeal among women?

  2. Jerry Roberts says:

    As I recall, the Nationals did well at the May election. Barnaby’s move is foolish and Canavan even more foolish to join him.

  3. Allan Kessing says:

    The Rootbeeter is a good example of why PJK’s mentor, the Big Fella, had it wrong to recommend “put yer dough on self interest, you know it’s trying”.
    Trying it may be but a modicum of ability is also necessary to succeed.
    The gNats have just about wagged this dog off their tail – SmoKo should realise that he’ll be vulnerable so long as he has such “colleagues”.
    The appalling interview of AA’s by Fran Kelly yesterday shows what a sounding brass or a tinkling cymbal he is – combined with SmoKo they still wouldn’t amount to a statesman empty vessels the both.
    They make a more like minded coalition than the rump partner currently shredding itself.

  4. Jon Stanford says:

    As Mungo suggests, the rare mutiny in the ranks of the Nats is all about climate change. But more than that, it focusses on an issue that has become talismanic for the climate deniers. That is the proposal to build a 1GW “high efficiency, low emissions” coal plant at Collinsville in North Queensland. Energy Minister Angus Taylor has already committed $4 million for a feasibility study into the plant and appears to be a supporter. Apparently Michael McCormack is also a supporter, but it may be that some of the more enlightened Nats not from Queensland, such as Darren Chester, would have their doubts. With private investment in any coal plant most unlikely to be forthcoming, the idea of a government investing in a new generation plant just because it burns coal beggars belief. The feasibility study gives the PM some breathing space, but ultimately if he is to re-build any credibility on climate change with the majority of the electorate, he will have to face this one down.
    With both sides of politics now bruised and battered by the climate debate, there must be a lot of incentive for the PM and Opposition leader to start having a conversation. If they could agree on a ‘sensible’ climate policy that would isolate the extremists at both ends of the spectrum (supporters of coal generation are not much sillier than those people that want to ban coal exports) they could drive a stake through the heart of the climate wars to their mutual benefit. But both sides may have to give something. Morrison would need to agree on zero emissions by 2050 and a significantly higher ambition for 2030 than is reflected in Australia’s Paris commitments. Albanese would probably have to give up the idea of an explicit carbon price any time soon and allow the government to have a go at its technological solutions (which will inevitably involve an implicit carbon price).

    • Ed Cory says:

      One thing about feasibility studies is that they are followed more of the same, often without regard to either common sense, or the outcomes of their predecessors – ‘fast rail’ for example. I think that there is scope for at least a few elections’ worth of studies into the Collinsville coal plant. Wasteful perhaps, but better than putting money into the real thing. And if it allows them to let through some genuine climate-oriented reforms while the Collinsville urgers are celebrating, well we all know about the Trojan horse …

  5. Lorraine Osborn says:

    I dwelt in the NE electorate for several decades and watched the ray of sunlight that was the Tony Windsor time be maligned and unravelled when the beetrooter inserted himself. He has worked tirelessly to shore up his base in this seat, attending the opening of a door if sure of a warm reception and endlessly going to every little National branch meeting as long as there was a quorum. He has a rump that support him and other rusted on Nats would vote for a fence post if it had the Nats logo on it. In spite of his manifest failings as a minister and man he seat is safe and can launch his tilt for another go at power using Queensland and the hillbilly malcontents there. He “believes in the legacy of Joh” his words so watch this space.

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