Net movement of Australian Citizens reverses in 2023-24
Jul 18, 2024
A much under-reported part of net migration is the net movement (short-term and long-term) of Australian citizens. At 37,380, a new record for the positive net movement of Australian citizens, other than in the first year of covid, was set in 2023-24. That makes the Government’s net migration forecast of 395,000 in 2023-24 even more implausible.
Table 1: Net movement and net migration of Australian citizens
Table 1 shows the net migration of Australian citizens (ie long-term movements) broadly follows the pattern set by the net movement (short and long-term) of Australian citizens.
Net migration of Australian citizens in the past 20 years has generally been negative with fluctuation driven by two main factors:
- Global uncertainty, such as generated by the Global Financial Crisis and Covid, led to more Australian citizens returning home than departing; and
- Fluctuations in the relative strength of the labour market with high unemployment in Australia leading to more Australians leaving long-term such as in the period 2013-14 to 2015-16.
The period immediately after covid led to a large number of Australians departing both short term and long-term. Record numbers of Australian citizens took the opportunity of international borders re-opening to travel and work overseas. Net movement of Australian citizens in 2021-22 was a record negative 380,510 followed by negative 242,610 in 2022-23.
That contributed to net migration in 2022-23 of Australian citizens of a record negative 32,200. That was with overall net migration being just under 550,000 in 2022-23.
But in 2023-24, the net movement of Australian citizens reversed to positive 37,380. That is likely the result of an ongoing strong Australian labour market, especially in comparison to NZ, the UK, Europe and China. It almost inevitably means the contribution of Australian citizens to net migration in 2023-24 will also be positive.
In its December 2023 Population Statement, Treasury’s Centre for Population assumed the Australian citizen contribution to net migration in 2023-24 would be negative 20,000 within an overall forecast net migration of 395,000. Both of those forecast now seem highly unlikely.
Overall net permanent and long-term movements for the 11 months to May 2024 was 445,510.
Taking those two data points together, it is hard to see how net migration in 2023-24 won’t be substantially higher than 400,000. The ABS will publish its preliminary estimate of net migration towards the end of 2024.
Peter Dutton will undoubtedly seek to score political points from any net migration outcome above 400,000 even though the surge in net migration since the Covid pandemic was largely the result of Coalition Government policy settings that the Labor Government took too long to reverse.
Abul Rizvi PhD was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including the reshaping of Australia's intake to focus on skilled migration, slow Australia's rate of population ageing and boost Australia's international education and tourism industries.
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