Very much on the minds of the government as well as residents in Taiwan is the November election in the United States. The question is which candidate, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, will oversee a more friendly policy toward Taiwan?
The debate will certainly increase in the next few months.
A recent poll by TVBS in Taiwan shows residents favour Vice-President Kamala Harris. Her populism strikes a chord among Taiwan’s residents. She is seen as a new and fresh face, vivacious, and more. Recently, she announced support for President Ronald Reagan’s six assurances, which is a plus to Taiwan’s leaders. She has also hailed larger US defence spending, another plus.
Yet Harris speaks of following President Joe Biden’s foreign policy. Biden’s foreign policy has been tainted, as seen from Taiwan, by his dishonourable and embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan. Biden has also attempted to create an alliance of democratic nations against the China-led authoritarian bloc of nations. He has applied sanctions against China that have not worked well, given China’s current GDP growth is more than double America’s.
Moreover, many countries do not want to adopt a hostile China policy given that China is the largest trading nation. (It is the biggest trading partner of 120 countries, more than double the US.) European Union countries reminded Biden of this. Elsewhere, the Biden administration’s foreign policy is seen as prone to start an unwanted war with China.
Further, Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party felt Biden betrayed Taiwan during the 2022 election campaign when he became cozy with China’s President Xi Jinping at a meeting of the G-20 nations in Bali. This arguably caused the DPP to lose the election to the Nationalist Party or KMT. The DPP also notes Biden weakened former President Tsai Ing-wen’s “silicon shield” when he pressured Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to build a chip factory in Arizona at a huge cost which will take jobs and influence away from Taiwan.
In any case, President Lai Ching-te and his party, the DPP, are aggressively pursuing close relations with the United States. They want American protection and gain from tension with China to remain in power. Anti-China tiffs square with the DPP’s views and its residents identifying with Taiwan’s separation, rather than unifying with China.
The erstwhile close US friend and ally, the KMT, argues Taiwan should not provoke a conflict with China that might escalate into a war Taiwan will lose. China patently outguns Taiwan. Further, close ties with China help Taiwan’s economy. Changing this could hurt growth and cause a recession in Taiwan. Also, China’s economy is growing faster than Taiwan’s, and Taiwan has not been successful in diverting commerce away from China. This says something about their future relations. The KMT is Taiwan’s pro-China party, though it also studiously seeks close relations with the US.
Most critical, Taiwan’s public, according to the polls, think Trump would be more likely to protect Taiwan in the event of conflict with China. Pundits, meanwhile, judge Harris’s adopting of Reagan’s guarantees as playing from the Republican playbook and her plans to spend and tax more as risking a recession, which data indicate is a present danger.
Transcending party differences, Taiwan’s residents are quite aware of the fact China is doing well; America is not. In fact, they see America declining or going through a dark age and China experiencing a renaissance – contrary to the impression many Americans hold from reading the anti-China media in the US. Anyway, Trump is more likely than Harris to bolster American power and its standing in the world – so say Taiwan’s pundits.
Taiwan’s locals also are aware Trump kept the peace when he was president. He also has a record; Harris does not, and her policies are not clear.
Further, Taiwan’s leaders recall that Trump maintained good relations with Xi and called him a great leader and friend. Biden called him a thug and tagged China as an existential enemy. Democrats and their media supporters have viewed China (and Chinese people) in much more negative terms. Republicans speak more of merit when judging both, and are less likely to start a war with China.
Finally, both Democrat and Republican political pundits still support strategic ambiguity as a Taiwan policy. It is intentionally ambiguous and designed to keep either side from taking aggressive policies. And it has worked. It can again. China seeks to gain global prominence through its strengths in finance and technology; resolving the Taiwan issue can wait – perhaps until a time when it is not so sensitive.
A footnote: the January 2024 election in Taiwan made the DPP’s candidate Lai Ching-te president. But the KMT captured control of the legislature. This created a divided government and seemed to dampen both the cause for independence and unification. That seems a good thing.
John F. Copper
John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor (emeritus) of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. He is the author of more than forty books on China, Taiwan, and U.S. Asia policy. His most recent book Taiwan’s Presidents: Profiles of the Majestic Six was published August 2024.
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