Labor has got its comeuppance in the Northern Territory, losing power in a double-digit swing to the Country Liberals. With a first-ever seat for the Greens, it sets a pattern that could carry through all the way to Canberra and the Federal Election due by September next year.
Among the unseated ALP luminaries was Chief Minister Eva Lawler, known to local critics as “Evil Liar”, who lost her own Drysdale electorate and made a concession speech early enough for Territorians to lift a valedictory after-dinner drink.
Previously treasurer and the minister responsible for resource development, Lawler took over last year when predecessor Natasha Fyles turned out to be secretly holding mining shares. Indeed, one of the issues that doomed Labor was the support of its leadership for mineral extraction, notably the proposal to use fracking to extract gas from deep under the Beetaloo Basin.
Grassroots party members repeatedly expressed opposition, as did the local Yanyuwa and Garrwa people. An independent auditor found the NT Government ignored conditions for the scheme set down by its own report, including the protection of water supplies and community rights.
Beetaloo is a notorious “carbon bomb” that would release enough greenhouse gases all by itself to sabotage the Paris Agreement to limit climate change.
Vigorous campaigning opposition by social movement activists included the imaginative tactic of photo-bombing a fun run in the bush in which Fyles herself took part.
But Guardian Australia revealed the massive corporate lobbying operation that won approval in Darwin’s Parliament House, with its famous palm trees and cladding.
Labor federally has repeatedly danced in response to corporate string-pulling when that means trampling over public interests. A notable example in Canberra was the Albanese Government’s resistance to Green-led efforts at re-regulating retail grocery amid the cost-of-living crisis.
Add in replication of Coalition policies on Palestine, AUKUS and even — with trifling adjustments — the stage 3 tax cuts, and Australia’s two governing parties look more similar than ever. The spectre of a return to Coalition rule, therefore, exerts a much weaker disciplinary effect on progressive votes. And without them, as the NT result proves, Labor is doomed.
With barely 12 months left before the federal election, there is still an opportunity for change. But the Darwin debacle shows the future for the ALP without a course correction.