Permanent and long-term movements continue at high levels
Feb 21, 2024
While it is highly likely net migration is now past its peak and declining, the data to this stage suggests it may only be falling gradually.
Permanent and long-term movements are the earliest approximation of net migration that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes. The data for December shows net permanent and long-term movements for the six months to December 2023 was around 96,000 higher than in the six months to December 2022 (see Table 1).
Table 1: Permanent and Long-term Movements July to December
The higher net long-term and permanent movements for the six months to December 2023 was driven to a significant degree by large student arrivals in the September quarter of 2023 (see Table 2) and ongoing growth in working holiday makers. That will likely result in net migration for the 12 months to September 2023 being even higher than for the 12 months to June 2023 which was around 518,000. The ABS will publish the data for net migration to September 2023 in March/April. That will no doubt cause another stir in the media and amongst various politicians.
Permanent and long-term arrivals remained consistently higher in the first six months of 23-24 compared to 22-23. That will also be worrying the Government.
Long-term and permanent departures in the first three months of 23-24 were below the levels in the same three months of 22-23. This was reversed in the second three months of 23-24 compared to 22-23. This is likely to reflect the larger stock of temporary entrants in Australia, the gradual weakening of the strong labour market and tightening of policy on temporary entrants extending stay.
Tightening of Government policy regarding onshore temporary entrants (including possibly visitors) extending stay and further weakening of the labour market will likely continue to result in a higher rate of long-term and permanent departures in the second half of 23-24 compared to the second half of 22-23.
Student movements
Total student movements (ie long-term and short-term) in the seven months to January 2024 highlight the impact of policy tightening and thus likely a reduced contribution to net migration after the month of July 2023 (see Table 2). The large student arrivals in July 2023 reflected student visa processing in May and June 2023 which was before refusal rates were increased.
While student arrivals have remained stronger in the first seven months of 2023-24 compared to the same seven months in 22-23, departures have increased more strongly compared to 2022-23. What we don’t know is the extent to which the departures are just short term or are longer-term departures. This may be confirmed over the next few months.
The major increase in student refusals in the December quarter of 2023 should result in a lower level of student arrivals in the March quarter of 2024 compared to the March quarter of 2023.
Table 2: Total student movements (short term and long-term)
Working holiday makers
Working holiday makers (WHM including Work & Holiday visas) grew steadily in the 6 months to December 2023 and would have made a strong contribution to net migration in 23-24. In the six months to December 2023, a total of 122,388 WHM/W&H visas were granted, compared with 111,610 in the six months to December 2022.
Government will have to tighten WHM policy based on a forthcoming discussion paper if it is to get net migration down to 250,000 in 24-25. But a range of vested interest groups will make this difficult.
Skilled temporary entrants
The major reforms to the skilled temporary entry visa, and in particular the increased minimum salary, has pushed down the number of these visas granted in the six months to December 2023 compared to the equivalent six months to December 2022. Skilled temporary visa grants in the six months to December 2023 were 31,351 offshore (a decline on the 36,639 in the six months to December 2022) and 15,383 onshore (a decline from 20,198 in the six months to December 2022).
Australian citizen movements
In most years, Australian citizens make a negative contribution to net migration as more depart permanently or long-term than return.
Net movement of all Australian citizens in January 2024 was 401,620 – a new monthly record. While the bulk of this will be Australian citizen returning after making short-term overseas visits, a portion will be long-term expatriates returning long-term or permanently. That will add to net migration in 2023-24.
Conclusion
While it is highly likely net migration is now past its peak and declining, the data to this stage suggests it may only be falling gradually. The decline in the number of covid visa holders will help if that decline is linked to covid visa holders departing permanently.
A key unknown is whether visitors extending stay in Australia are continuing to make a major contribution to net migration. In 2022, visitors extending stay contributed around 17 percent to net migration. The Government doesn’t publish detailed data on visitors extending stay. Hopefully the Department is briefing ministers on this to that they can take that into account in policy development.
The recent increase in unemployment will most likely drive net migration down further but the Government still has significant work to do if it is to meet the Prime Minister’s commitment to get net migration down to pre-pandemic levels.
Abul Rizvi PhD was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1990s to 2007 when he left as Deputy Secretary. He was awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to development and implementation of immigration policy, including the reshaping of Australia's intake to focus on skilled migration, slow Australia's rate of population ageing and boost Australia's international education and tourism industries.
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