Pearls and Irritations

Political and economic pressures are rising in Papua New Guinea (PNG), with escalating social tensions suggesting a need for focused regional support. Critics argue that given ongoing civil unrest, political instability with Rainbo Paita’s challenge to Prime Minister James Marape and substantial economic challenges such as a stagnating minimum wage and increasing poverty, financial aid and strategies should be directed towards supporting the PNG populace rather than bolstering the political elite.

In April 2024, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape made a high profile visit to the historic Kokoda Track, north of Port Moresby.

At one point, the helicopter carrying the two leaders was delayed while an aid delivery was made on the tarmac they were supposed to land on. The aid package was from China, whose Foreign Minister Wang Yi had just left Papua New Guinea after a formal visit. In the nuanced dialogue of Indo-Pacific geopolitics, the Chinese aid delivery was an unmissable and deftly manufactured moment.

While these kinds of high-level manoeuvres dominate PNG’s role in the current tensions between Australia and China, more ground-level concerns may well hold the key to deeper geopolitical outcomes.

There are indications that PNG is politically and economically vulnerable and that public anger is brewing. This poses serious implications for regional powers. Unlocking solutions to these domestic tensions will be useful and sustainable.

Looming over the current political landscape is the threat to the current Marape government posed by the emergence of an alternative government. Rainbo Paita, formerly a close ally of Marape and a rising figure in the ruling Pangu Pati, has driven efforts to put forward a vote of no-confidence in Marape, claiming he should be moved aside and a new parliament ushered in.

Attempts to propose the motion have been repeatedly rejected by the Speaker of Parliament due to insubstantial technicalities. While opposition sponsors of the vote have indeed been error-prone in drafting the motion, the Speaker adjudicating the motion is a member of the ruling party. The parliamentary committee that vetted the no-confidence motions is also made up of Pangu Pati members.

In early August, a Supreme Court decision effectively nullified the most recent vote of no-confidence on technical grounds. A new opposition application to conduct a parliamentary confidence vote is likely to occur this month.

Widespread riots in early 2024 indicate that public frustration with such politicking is building. The decision to delay the vote of no-confidence has only added to rising pressure.

Untied loans and frequent visits from Australian and Chinese officials have done little to ease tensions. These untied loans only heighten the dismay felt by the estimated 15 million Papua New Guineans who are struggling to put food on the table as cost of living pressures drive high levels of poverty, especially in urban centres. The minimum wage has stagnated at just 3.50 Papua New Guinean kina (US$0.9) per hour since 2016 and purchasing power has plummeted. A minimum wage employee must work 20 hours to afford a family-sized bag of rice.

Floods in Western Province and the landslide in Enga Province have exposed the life and death impacts of the country’s shortcomings. These two provinces are home to the mammoth gold mines, Ok Tedi and Porgera, but local communities have seen little benefit from these projects and must live with major gaps in economic infrastructure.

Fuel shortages are another issue biting hard on Papua New Guineans. The country’s largest fuel provider, the foreign-owned Puma Energy, closed its operations in February after it was unable to purchase all the foreign currency it needs to pay its international suppliers of fuel. PNG’s banks did not have sufficient funds for foreign currency transactions.

Puma’s closure is related to an ongoing foreign exchange crisis. Even relatively minor external currency purchases with Papua New Guinean kina have been capped. While this is an economic issue, the government needs to pull political levers to ensure it has the foreign funds to service its spiralling debts to international financiers, such as Australia. Critics claim the majority government-owned Ok Tedi mine has built up an AU$311 million debt to pay the government’s bills.

This landscape augurs badly for those looking for stability in PNG – an important cog in the Indo-Pacific. For China, the United States and allies like Australia, PNG’s regional profile, its vast resources potential and its geographical proximity to Australia guarantee it will remain in the crosshairs as tensions evolve.

Beijing’s influence on political affairs is increasing via direct funding but also covertly. A recent leaked photo of Chinese embassy officials enjoying informal festivities with Marape at a luxury Port Moresby resort circulated widely and caused many to speculate that the governments are tighter than initially thought.

Australia, the United States and their partners are reacting to China’s strong presence in PNG, but have a lot of lost time to make up. Australia insists on continued injections into the PNG budget which are unrelated to pre-established spending targets. These injections may have buttressed the Marape Government from immediate political collapse by plugging gaps in the faltering economy. This form of aid is more like assistance to the Marape Government than traditional aid aimed at strategic assistance or community development.

A video of Australian Senator Pauline Hanson criticising Australia’s decision to tip AU$2.5 billion into PNG’s budget and AU$600 million to bankroll a PNG National Rugby League bid has gone viral in PNG – angering many who argue Papua New Guineans need better healthcare and education, not a rugby league team.

Despite the series of state visits and funding programs, the people of PNG are clamouring for a better deal and are mobilising. Foreign donors may well be laying the foundations for civil unrest and instability by ignoring standard government procedures and civilian-orientated programs.

PNG’s future likely resides with its people, not with its fickle elites. The Papua New Guinean people know they are getting a raw deal. Regional powers should listen closely to what they have to say and drive funding strategies that have a palpable impact on the ground.

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