Ramesh Thakur

RAMESH THAKUR. Five Steps to Peace in Myanmar

The bloodshed in Myanmar has uprooted hundreds of thousands of Muslim Rohingya, eroded the prestige of government leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and damaged the credibility of ASEAN and the United Nations. The crisis can be resolved, but not without international intervention.

CANBERRA The humanitarian crisis afflicting Myanmars Muslim Rohingya has damaged the countrys political stability and shattered its image as a country moving toward democracy. Moreover, it hastarnished the reputationof the governments_de facto_leader, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi; called into question thecrisis-management credentialsof ASEAN and the United Nations; and made a mockery of international institutions for conflict prevention.

And yet, for all the woe, a resolution remains possible; to achieve it, five steps must be taken without delay. First and foremost, the killings and atrocities must stop, which will be as difficult as it is necessary. Myanmars military has engaged in a sustained campaign of ethnic cleansing, with the primary goal of expelling the Rohingya from the country. Although these actions cannot be undone, further bloodshed and targeted evictions can and should cease.

For that to happen, however, Rohingya extremists must be contained. Contrary to the prevailing narrative in the West, the Myanmar military was provoked, after insurgentsstaged a series of attackson police and army posts in August. Exploiting a history of armed clashes between Buddhists and Muslims in Rakhine State, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has assumed leadership of an increasingly violent campaign. The problem, of course, has been the disproportionate use of force by the military, which retaliated against ARSA strikes by launching a scorched-earth campaign that haskilled as many as 3,000. Soldiers have burned entire Rohingya villages,engaged in sexual violence, destroyed mosques, and provoked mass displacement. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights,Zeid Raad Al Hussein, says it is a textbook example of ethnic cleansing, while UN Secretary-GeneralAntnio Guterreshas called the crisis catastrophic. Suu Kyi, meanwhile, has failed to exercise any moral authority, sounding instead like an apologist when sheinsiststhat a huge iceberg of misinformation is promoting the interest of the terrorists. She is, no doubt, sandwiched between an autonomous military that retains complete control over the countrys security services, and a Buddhist-majority population with deeply rooted anti-Muslim prejudices. But, that predicament does not excuse her failure to condemn what is happening under her watch

To be sure, Suu Kyis government resents the idealistic but partisan statements often issued by Western leaders and UN representatives. Rohingya extremists havelong-established links with foreign jihadists, including those of the Islamic State. Complicating the militarys position, ARSA is, according to the International Crisis Group,commanded by Saudi-based insurgentswith extensive experience in guerrilla warfare. Few Westerners grasp the challenges faced by decision-makers in developing countries confronting extremism from insurgents and terrorists. It is precisely these concerns that have made it difficult for Myanmar to break the cycle of violence. Bangladesh and India have refused to resettle Rohingya refugees permanently, largely because they fear that jihadists could be among them. Indian intelligence agencies havelinkedARSA to the Pakistani jihadist group Lashkar-e-Taiba. Similarly, Chinas government hassupportedMyanmars efforts to protect its national security. As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China is investing $7.3 billion in a port project in Rakhine, which may lead China toblock any attemptin the UN Security Council to censure Myanmar for its actions.

This tangled web of interests, coupled with the governments failure, means that responsibility for protecting all of Myanmars people now falls to ASEAN or the UN.

Once hostilities cease, the second step toward ensuring long-term peace will be the repatriation of refugees, which could prove to be a logistical nightmare. According toUN figures, at the end of September some 700,000 Rohingya refugees had crossed into Bangladesh, with more than half arriving since late August. And Myanmars military has mined the border with Bangladesh to stop them from returning.

Assuming that the issues of violence and refugees can be addressed, Myanmar must grant international humanitarian access to the affected regions. ASEAN, whichdemonstrated its capabilitiesin the wake of Cyclone Nargis in 2008, is well positioned to take the lead inshaping a regional response. ASEAN could also coordinate with the UN in managing emergency personnel.

The fourth step is to hold enablers of the atrocities accountable. Myanmars government must undertake or permit ASEAN or the UN to do so on its behalf an independent and impartial investigation into the killings, identify the perpetrators, and subject them to transparent and credible prosecution. If this cannot be done domestically, the matter must be referred to the International Criminal Court.

Finally, the government that Suu Kyi leads must repeal or amend all discriminatory laws and end official anti-Rohingya discrimination. With 1.1 million members, the Rohingya are one of the worlds largest stateless ethnic groups. Most came to Myanmar as part of the expansion of the British Empire, after the Burmese king was defeated in 1826, but are still considered to be illegal Bengali immigrants. The1982 citizenship lawdid not recognize them as one of the countrys 135 ethnic groups, and they have severely limited access to health care, education, and employment, in addition to facing restrictions on their freedom of movement. Myanmars democratic transition remains fragile, with civil-military relations, poverty, economic growth, and governance competing for attention. But the cessation of hostilities and resolution of the Rohingya crisis must take precedence. Thereportissued in August by the Rakhine Advisory Commission, led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, offers one possible path forward

These five steps will not heal all wounds or end every grievance. But they can help ease the suffering by discouraging further atrocities, deterring violent extremism, and improving border security. At the moment, this may be the best-possible outcome.

Ramesh Thakur, a former assistant secretary-general of the United Nations, is Director of the Center for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament at Australian National University.

This article first appeared on Project Syndicate on 5 October 2017

Ramesh Thakur

Ramesh Thakur is emeritus professor at the Australian National University and a former United Nations Assistant Secretary-General. Of Indian origin, he is a citizen of Canada, New Zealand and Australia.